47 years of hostility, 21 hours of hope. It wasn’t enough

The United States and Iran- two nations that have labelled each other “evil” and the “great satan“- have not shared diplomatic ties since 1979. For 47 years, their conflicts have defined global tensions.

So when these bitter rivals agreed to sit at a negotiating table in Islamabad to end a six-week war, it felt historic- a diplomatic miracle pulled off by Pakistan as a daring and complex mediator.

With handshakes and hopeful smiles, the Iranian and American delegations were welcomed by Pakistan’s field marshal and army chief, General Asim Munir, alongside Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Hundreds of journalists descended on the capital. Global news networks ran 24/7 broadcasts, anticipating the world’s biggest story: an end to war in the Middle East.

The oil-rich Gulf states held their breath for a breakthrough. A watchful West was anxious. Superpowers like China and Russia fixed eagle eyes on the outcome. Here was a fleeting chance for regional peace.

US President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Ali Khamenei sent powerful teams. Vice President J.D. Vance led the Americans. Iran’s delegation was headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, accompanied by top diplomat Abbas Araghchi and a cadre of economists and technocrats.

Against the scenic backdrop of Islamabad’s Margalla Hills, negotiations began in the afternoon. What followed were marathon, direct talks— the highest-level face-to-face engagement between the two nations in decades. The sun set. Night fell. Talks stretched past dawn, raising fragile hopes. The clock ticked.

After 21 hours, J.D. Vance appeared on screen and delivered a diplomatic bombshell.

“After 21 hours of negotiations, we have not come to an agreement. We go back without a deal.”

Vance stated the core US demand, relayed from President Trump throughout the talks: Iran must not retain the capability to develop nuclear weapons. The talks had collapsed.

“I think that’s bad news for Iran, much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” Vance warned. “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”

The announcement shocked many. The nuclear issue was now the stated reason for failure, yet Tehran had previously agreed not to build a bomb under the Obama-era deal and was reportedly willing to agree again in two prior talks— both sabotaged by US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Tehran, a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, says its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian purposes and that it has a legal right to uranium enrichment. The US and the Western world, however, believe Iran’s nuclear program poses a global threat.

When CNN’s Nick Robertson pressed for details on what Iran rejected, Vance shut it down: “I don’t want to go into all the details because I don’t want to negotiate in public after we negotiated for 21 hours in private.”

Sources familiar with the negotiations say four issues were at the heart of the stalemate: a comprehensive regional ceasefire (particularly in Lebanon), the terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s frozen assets, and its nuclear program.

Iran’s Qalibaf blamed the US, saying it failed to gain the delegation’s trust after Iran tabled “forward-looking” initiatives. Tehran demanded phased sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and the right to regulate— and charge fees for— shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as war compensation.

The US refused to cede that leverage, demanding the strait reopen unconditionally. It also insisted Iran become “nuclear-free,” disposing of an estimated stockpile of 440 kilograms of enriched uranium.

Crucially, Iran made a comprehensive regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon, a prerequisite. That demand has lingered since a two-week truce was announced, with Pakistan as the key facilitator.

The US, seeking to distance itself from the issue, would not budge. Its key ally, Israel, conditions any cessation of bombing on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Israel is scheduled to discuss precisely that with Lebanon’s government in Washington this Tuesday. The US view aligns with Netanyahu’s plan to delink Lebanon and Hezbollah from Iran.

For Tehran, abandoning its longtime ally Hezbollah is seen as a betrayal and a fatal loss of regional influence. This issue of a Lebanon ceasefire, perhaps more than any other, was a core sticking point.

The odds were stacked against success. Both countries came to the table as self-declared victors, holding maximalist positions. Trump declared victory, stating that regardless of the talks’ outcome, “the US has won the war.” Iran approached negotiations believing it could still fight on despite severe losses. Its regime survived; it held the Strait of Hormuz for six weeks, choking the global economy; its missiles penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome.

The US boasted of crippling Iran’s military-industrial complex and eliminating civil and military leadership.

The odds were stacked against success. Both countries came to the table as self-declared victors, holding maximalist positions.

-Owais Tohid

Iran also carried the burden of bitter history and ideology into the room. It named the negotiation process “Minab168” after 168 schoolgirls killed in the war in US-Israeli airstrikes. Qalibaf carried their images on his plane to Pakistan and shared them on social media. The Trump administration, for its part, was driven by domestic politics ahead of midterms and a steadfast pro-Israel policy. A recent Pew survey indicates 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict.

Both delegations left behind an uncertain future, especially for Gulf states that showed remarkable restraint despite suffering Tehran’s retaliatory attacks. Both sides, however, praised Pakistan’s mediation. Trump called Gen. Munir and PM Sharif “extraordinary men.”

Now, the clock is ticking again.

Iran, its economy fragile and its infrastructure in ruins, needs reconstruction— not another war. It cannot afford to lose its angered Arab allies. Pakistan may now be the sole bridge between Tehran and the Gulf, having crucially moderated the Gulf states’ response. Iran knows targeting Saudi Arabia is a red line for Pakistan, which has jets and troops stationed in Riyadh under a mutual defense pact.

Trump, too, faces hard choices: war or negotiation. He cannot afford to lose allies or domestic support. For now, his posture is aggressive. He has announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, vowing to prevent Iran from charging “illegal toll.” Netanyahu warns Israel’s campaign is not over; he has “hands on the trigger.”

Many argue the US and Iran should give peace another chance, wondering if Washington walked away from Islamabad in haste. The last nuclear deal, nearly 11 years ago, took 18 months to broker before it broke down. Diplomacy is a slow walk— an ongoing process.

21 hours, it seems, was not enough to end 47 years of hostility.

- Owais Tohid has reported extensively on war and conflict in Asia for 30 years and witnessed the rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. He has also covered the Palestinian conflict in the Occupied Territories and worked for the BBC World Service, AFP and CS Monitor. X: @OwaisTohid