The strategic significance of renewable energy

Wars and conflicts are generally analyzed and examined through military, geopolitical and ideological lenses. But we should also look at the energy landscape. The ongoing war in the Middle East has revealed something critical regarding the structural issues embedded in the global energy system.

What is emerging is the profound importance of transitioning to solar and other forms of renewable energy. The war has demonstrated the risks associated with dependence on fossil fuels. In addition, it has made evident the degree to which the world remains dependent on centralized fossil fuel infrastructures. It has also shown the strategic, economic and societal advantages of having decentralized and resilient energy systems.

Oil refineries, gas processing plants, pipelines and export terminals should not only be viewed as economic assets, they are also strategic assets. In the current conflict, these facilities have been placed at risk and even directly targeted. Unlike decentralized energy systems, a single strike on fossil fuel infrastructure can generate cascading economic and political consequences.

In times of war, even the threat of disruption can lead to dramatic fluctuations in global energy markets

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Furthermore, the dependence on chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz is significant. A large proportion of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through this narrow maritime corridor. In times of war and heightened tensions, even the threat of disruption can lead to dramatic fluctuations in global energy markets. It can also lead to increased insurance costs for shipping and a broader climate of economic uncertainty.

So, the ongoing conflict has shown that energy supply chains are acutely sensitive to geopolitical tensions. The issue is that even a localized conflict can have global economic repercussions.

In contrast, solar and other renewable energy systems use a fundamentally different architecture. Their most significant advantage lies in decentralization. Solar energy, in particular, can be deployed across a wide array of scales. This can range from utility-scale solar farms to distributed rooftop installations. This dispersion reduces the risk of catastrophic failure.

This means that a distributed solar network can continue to function even when parts of it are damaged, reducing the incentive for adversaries to target energy infrastructure in the first place.

The long-term benefits of transitioning to renewable energy extend beyond resilience against conflict

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Another strategic advantage of renewable energy systems is their reduced dependence on continuous supply chains. For example, solar energy relies on a resource that is locally available and inexhaustible. It does not require ongoing processing, transport or distribution. Once installed, solar infrastructure generates electricity without the need for fuel imports or complex logistics.

In a conflict environment, where supply chains can often be disrupted or weaponized, this independence becomes a decisive advantage.

Recent developments also highlight the crucial role of renewable energy. In modern states, electricity is the backbone of vital infrastructure, including healthcare systems, communication networks, water supplies and transport. As a result, any disruptions can have immediate and severe consequences on almost every section of human life. But decentralized renewable systems — particularly when combined with energy storage technologies — can provide a degree of continuity even when centralized grids are compromised. This is because microgrids and localized energy systems can operate independently, ensuring that essential services remain functional.

For Middle Eastern countries, the implications are profound. Historically, the region’s geopolitical significance has been closely tied to its vast reserves of oil and gas. In recent years, however, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken the right steps and begun to make significant investments in renewable energy as part of their broader economic diversification strategies.

The current conflict reinforces the strategic logic of these investments and demonstrates that energy transition is not only an economic or environmental objective but also a matter of national security.

The long-term benefits of transitioning to renewable energy extend beyond resilience against conflict. From an economic perspective, renewable energy systems offer greater stability by reducing exposure to volatile global markets. While fossil fuel prices are influenced by a wide range of factors, including geopolitical tensions, renewable energy is characterized by up-front costs but low and predictable operating expenses. These fixed-cost structures also improve economic planning and reduce uncertainty. This stability can be highly advantageous.

From a strategic perspective, this transformation also has the potential to reduce the importance of certain chokepoints, as well as to alter the geopolitical landscape in significant ways.

Finally, environmental considerations should also play a role in the long-term assessment of energy systems. While we are analyzing the issue through the prism of the ongoing war, it is important to recognize that climate change represents a parallel and interconnected challenge in the long term.

Renewable energy can help to address this challenge because it reduces greenhouse gas emissions. In this sense, the transition to green energy addresses both the vulnerabilities exposed by war and the longer-term drivers of instability.

In conclusion, solar and other renewable energy systems offer many advantages in terms of security, resilience and long-term sustainability. For Middle Eastern countries, the transition to renewable energy should not be merely an option but a necessity, which is shaped by the evolving realities of conflict and global change.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh