Gulf states building trust through Iran ‘war’ response

Many articles and social media posts have been published in the last two weeks covering how Arab Gulf states are handling the war — or, more specifically, the unjustified Iranian strikes on their territory. To start with, this is not a war between Iran and the Gulf. This is Iran unjustifiably striking its neighbors. The coverage varies from influencers relaxing on golden beaches to people fleeing the so-called war in panic. However, despite the hardships, the conflict represents an important test — a test in crisis management that the Gulf states have so far aced.

Some who were either uncomfortable with or jealous of the Arab Gulf’s success are now saying that Gulf prosperity was built on security and stability. In their perspective, this pillar no longer exists. However, this logic is twisted. To start with, no country — no matter how developed — is immune from war. Everyone thought that Europe was done with wars. Well, it is currently experiencing a war that has been going on for more than four years. The key is how states handle it.

The Gulf states have demonstrated exceptional defense capabilities, with a very high interception rate. Gulf countries have used advanced US-made systems, specifically Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot, to block attacks on their territory. In addition to the high interception rate, Gulf countries have a good early warning system. There has also been good compliance with safety measures by institutions and the public.

Gulf countries will mitigate the effects of this conflict in the same way they jumpstarted their economies after COVID-19

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

If we think about it logically, no matter where you are, you can never guarantee that a neighboring state will not carry out an aggressive act. However, you want to be in a place where you know for sure that the state has the capabilities to ensure your safety.

Even though everyone is tense, everything remains functional. Again, many people who are either pessimistic or jealous started speculating about how everyone living in the Gulf would suffer if the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This turned out to be a huge exaggeration. People living in the Gulf cannot notice any difference when they do their grocery shopping. The aisles are well stocked with a variety of perishables. This is because the Gulf had a good contingency plan. Once the strait was closed, all trade was redirected to the ports on the Red Sea. Therefore, as an individual, a business or an investor, you can rest assured that Gulf states know what they are doing. They plan for contingencies.

Hardships are a test of resilience, strength and decision-making. The Gulf states have proved they can be trusted

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Of course, business has gone down. To start with, people are not in the mood for spending or investing due to the uncertainty that comes with war. Also, there are fewer tourists and several events have been canceled. We should remember that a similar dip occurred due to COVID-19. After the pandemic, the Gulf bounced back. At that time, the region smartly applied economic boosters to make sure small businesses did not shut down and regular employees did not lose their jobs. They can do the same again if required. The Gulf states are well endowed with sovereign wealth funds. These were created to be useful on rainy days like the ones we are currently witnessing. The Gulf countries will mitigate the effects of this conflict in the same way they jumpstarted their economies after COVID-19.

There is another factor that is very important for anyone looking to the Gulf to settle or invest: these states are led by rational people, not people driven by their hubris. This is why, despite the various Iranian provocations, the leaders of the different states analyzed the costs and benefits of going to war. They know that they are better off staying out of it and focusing on defense. They made a rational decision.

Again, for those who are pessimistic or jealous and who use dramatic headlines like, “Can the Gulf still act as an airline hub for the world?” I respond that it is likely to emerge stronger. Yes, stronger. Whether you live in the Gulf with your family, are employed in the Gulf, own a business in the Gulf or just have investments in the Gulf, when you see the effectiveness of the crisis management these states have demonstrated, you cannot help but increase your trust in them. Hardships are a test of resilience, strength and decision-making. The Arab Gulf states have proved they can be trusted.

For investors, professionals and even blue-collar workers, for citizens as well as expatriates, what they seek is a system that protects them and allows them to thrive. The Gulf states have provided this ecosystem. Despite the dip these states might be experiencing currently, they have earned trust and this will give them a big boost in the long run.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.