Prolonging the war will make Iran the biggest loser

In politics, some leaders believe that time works in their favor. They assume that if a conflict drags on long enough, their enemies will weaken, alliances will shift and eventually they will emerge stronger. Iran appears to believe this about the current wave of conflicts across the Middle East.

But this calculation may be dangerously wrong.

Tehran seems convinced that prolonging instability — from Gaza to Syria and beyond — will strengthen its regional role and increase its leverage against rivals. The idea behind this strategy is simple: the longer the region remains unstable, the more influence Iran can exercise through its network of allies and armed groups.

In reality, however, prolonging the war may ultimately turn Iran into the biggest loser in the region.

Tehran seems convinced that prolonging instability — from Gaza to Syria and beyond — will strengthen its regional role

Hani Hazaimeh

The first reason is economic. Iran is already suffering under heavy sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies. These sanctions have severely limited Iran’s ability to sell oil freely, access the international banking system and attract foreign investment. The result is a struggling economy marked by high inflation, currency depreciation and declining living standards.

Some Iranian policymakers may hope that rising oil prices — often triggered by instability in the Middle East — could offset some of these economic pressures. But this hope ignores an important reality. As long as sanctions remain in place, Iran cannot fully benefit from higher oil prices. Instead of selling oil openly on global markets, Tehran is forced to rely on indirect channels and offer discounted prices to buyers willing to take the risk.

In other words, while other oil producers benefit from higher prices, Iran captures only a fraction of the potential revenue.

Meanwhile, the domestic economic situation continues to deteriorate. Inflation remains stubbornly high, the national currency has lost much of its value and economic hardship is affecting millions of Iranians. Prolonging regional conflict will not solve these problems. If anything, it risks making them worse by reinforcing the sanctions and isolation that are already damaging the country’s economy.

The second major issue is the cost of Iran’s regional strategy.

For years, Iran has invested enormous resources in building influence across the Middle East. Through what it often describes as an “axis of resistance,” Tehran has supported armed groups and political allies in several countries. These alliances were designed to expand Iran’s strategic reach and create pressure points against its regional rivals. But today, many of these investments are producing diminishing returns.

Syria is perhaps the clearest example. For more than a decade, Iran poured billions of dollars into supporting the government of Bashar Assad during the Syrian civil war. Tehran viewed Syria as a cornerstone of its regional strategy and an essential corridor linking Iran to Lebanon and the Mediterranean.

Yet those ambitions have largely collapsed. The fall of the Syrian regime in December 2024 shattered many of Iran’s long-term plans in the country. Years of financial, political and military investment suddenly turned into a strategic loss.

Instead of gaining a reliable regional partner and a strong economic foothold, Iran now faces the reality that much of its investment in Syria may never be recovered.

The situation in Gaza also illustrates the limits of Iran’s strategy.

For years, Tehran has supported armed Palestinian factions as part of its broader confrontation with Israel. These alliances were meant to strengthen Iran’s regional influence and create additional pressure points against its adversaries.

But the devastating war in Gaza has not produced clear gains for Iran. The humanitarian cost has been immense, the destruction in the territory is staggering and the political outcome remains uncertain. While the conflict has drawn global attention to the Palestinian cause, it has not delivered a strategic victory for Tehran.

Instead, it has intensified international scrutiny of Iran’s regional activities and reinforced the political arguments for maintaining sanctions against it.

Iran’s broader network of allies is also under pressure.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah faces growing military challenges and increasing domestic criticism as the country struggles with one of the worst economic crises in its modern history. In Iraq, Iranian-aligned groups operate in a complicated political environment where public opinion is increasingly wary of foreign influence. In Yemen, regional tensions continue to create instability without delivering meaningful strategic gains for Tehran.

Maintaining this network requires money, weapons and logistical support. All of this places additional strain on Iran’s already fragile economy.

Many citizens are asking why Iran continues to devote resources to regional conflicts instead of focusing on domestic development

Hani Hazaimeh

Simply put, Iran is spending billions of dollars abroad while its economy struggles at home.

At the same time, the rest of the Middle East is undergoing significant transformation. Many countries in the region are shifting their priorities toward economic development, technological innovation and global investment. Governments are focusing on diversification, infrastructure, tourism and new industries that can create jobs and long-term growth.

Iran, however, remains deeply entangled in geopolitical confrontation and proxy conflicts. This contrast is becoming more visible every year. While several regional states are opening their economies and building global partnerships, Iran continues to face sanctions, political isolation and economic stagnation. The gap between Iran and many of its neighbors is widening.

Perhaps the most important consequence of this strategy is its impact on ordinary Iranians.

Inside the country, economic hardship is growing. Rising prices and unemployment and declining purchasing power are affecting millions of families. Many citizens are asking why their government continues to devote resources to regional conflicts instead of focusing on economic recovery and domestic development.

These questions are becoming increasingly difficult for the Iranian leadership to ignore. Iran’s leaders may believe that prolonging regional instability will strengthen their strategic position. But the opposite may be true.

If sanctions persist, economic pressure intensifies and regional conflicts continue without resolution, Iran could emerge from this period weaker rather than stronger. In the end, the strategy of endless confrontation may leave Tehran paying the highest price for a war that refuses to end.

• Hani Hazaimeh is a senior editor based in Amman. X: @hanihazaimeh