In the war on Iran, the Gulf is stuck between Iraq and a hard place

Saudis woke up yesterday to two pieces of disturbing news: First, the American Embassy in the Diplomatic Quarter of Riyadh had been hit by a drone. Apart from feeling violated, the US Embassy is also a particular place of many fond memories for us Saudis. Most recently, under former Ambassador Michael Ratney, it hosted an Independence Day festivity that quite literally “brought the moon,” celebrating everything Saudis and Americans achieved or enjoy together, from space exploration to pop music.

Unlike some other places in the Middle East, America occupies a special place in the hearts and minds of most modern Saudis. An attack on the US, on our turf, feels like an attack on us.

The second bit of disturbing news came just hours later. Leading television network Al Arabiya broke the news that, according to its sources, some of the drone attacks targeting the Kingdom may have originated not from Iran, but from a fellow Arab country: Iraq.

This development coincided with a recent statement from Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi. Speaking on CNN, he said: “Iran is not responsible for the attacks on the oil installations of Saudi Arabia. We have made it clear and have made an official statement that that was not the target of Iranian armed forces.”

Of course, it is well known that since the 2003 war — another poorly thought-through American intervention — Iraq has increasingly become a playground for Iranian influence, proxies and militias.

It may have gone unnoticed by many that last week the so-called Iraqi Hezbollah militia claimed responsibility for 16 operations using tens of military drones against enemies “inside Iraq and beyond.” The group, one of the most powerful Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, has long adopted hardline positions against neighboring countries and American allies in the region.

If these reports are true, then a serious conversation must be held with Iraq — not just by Saudi Arabia, but by all countries that may have been targeted by these drones.

Baghdad cannot disclaim responsibility for armed groups operating from its territory while those same groups jeopardize Iraq itself and its neighbors.

Faisal J. Abbas | Editor-in-Chief

The argument that Iraq, as a state, has nothing to do with these militias does not stand. Baghdad cannot disclaim responsibility for armed groups operating from its territory while those same groups jeopardize Iraq itself and its neighbors.

Interestingly, the Iraqi government said on Tuesday night that it had downed a drone heading toward the US Consulate in Irbil. In recent days, there have been numerous reported efforts within Iraq to intercept and confront drone attacks.

But if the reports prove accurate, Iraq must step up its efforts to prevent militias within its borders from waging cross-border attacks — or effectively dismantle the bows and silence the launchers, to use military terms.

From a security perspective, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have spent the past few days defending against what in warfare are known as “arrows” — missiles and drones. Yet every arrow has an archer and a commander. What Israel and the US have been doing since the beginning of the war is targeting the archers — missile launchers and drone facilities. However, one wonders how many? Since the recent 12-day war Tehran has intensified missile and drone production while diversifying launch locations. Iraqi territory, it appears, may not have been fully calculated into previous strike plans. Despite sustained pressure, Iran continues to demonstrate its capacity to launch missiles and drones toward Israel and Arab countries.

Then comes the double-edged sword of eliminating the “commanders.” Israel and the US effectively did so on Day One. By killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and members of his inner circle, they may claim an early tactical victory. But in doing so, they may also have denied themselves a negotiating counterpart, leaving US allies in the Arab and Gulf worlds caught — if you will excuse the pun — between Iraq and a hard place.

Where does this lead? The moving goalposts, shaped by varying statements from Israel and Washington, have left observers uncertain about the endgame. Is it regime change? If so, what or who is the alternative? Or is the objective the obliteration of Iran’s nuclear program — which, according to official statements, should have already been dismantled during Operation Midnight Hammer last June.

An olive branch does exist. The Omani foreign minister has called for keeping the door to negotiations open. Yet who can guarantee that any new Iranian leadership will not meet the same fate as other adversaries targeted abroad? Or that Oman — once Tehran’s closest Gulf interlocutor — will not itself be at the receiving end of more attacks from a cornered and desperate Iran? Perhaps it is appropriate to end this column with a final thought from Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”: “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”

• Faisal J. Abbas is the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News. X: @FaisalJAbbas