Daesh after America: What happens when the last troops leave

Between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2, US forces struck Daesh targets in Syria five times. Days later, US Central Command issued a statement pledging “sustained pressure” alongside local partners.

These operations coincided with a confluence of significant political and security developments: a phased withdrawal of American forces from their bases on Syrian soil; the transfer of several thousand Daesh prisoners from detention facilities in northeastern Syria to Iraq ahead of trial; and the release of thousands of individuals and their families from Al-Hol camp — which had housed the families of Daesh fighters — leaving them free to move about inside Syria unchecked.

These shifts on the ground have serious implications. Daesh remains one of the most violently extreme organizations in the world and fears are mounting over its potential resurgence across the vast terrain straddling Iraq and Syria. The group’s ability to blend into hostile local environments and sympathetic villages, regroup and reconstitute its forces raises the specter of a renewed bid to establish a “caliphate” — something many experts consider difficult but not impossible.

Fears are mounting over Daesh’s potential resurgence across the vast terrain straddling Iraq and Syria

Hassan Al-Mustafa

The more immediate threat, however, is a return to terrorist operations targeting civilians, military personnel and security forces in both Iraq and Syria, along with infiltration into Lebanon and Jordan. All this is unfolding against a volatile regional backdrop, with the world watching US-Iranian negotiations and the risk that tensions between Washington and Tehran could erupt into open military conflict involving the US and Israel on one side and Iran and its proxy forces on the other.

According to US Central Command, more than 5,700 adult Daesh fighters were transferred to Iraqi detention facilities over a 23-day operation. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said: “Job well done to the entire joint force team who executed this exceptionally challenging mission on the ground and in the air with great focus, professionalism and collaboration with our regional partners,” while commending “Iraq’s leadership and recognition that transferring the detainees is essential to regional security.”

The move caught many off guard and sparked concern within Iraq over hosting such a large number of trained extremist fighters. Baghdad has since moved to tighten security protocols at detention centers, intensify surveillance and prepare for trials — proceedings that are likely to ignite legal and humanitarian controversies, particularly among those who may seek to exploit them for ideological purposes. Iraqi politicians also fear that Daesh sleeper cells could strike inside Iraq in retaliation for the detention of the group’s members.

That said, some analysts argue that transferring Daesh detainees to Iraq is ultimately safer for both countries. The detention infrastructure in northern Syria has long been inadequate, escape attempts have been frequent and American financial and logistical support to the Syrian Democratic Forces has been dwindling — all against the backdrop of Washington’s military drawdown from Syria, which is now underway.

The financial and security burden on Iraq will be considerable. Yet regional intelligence cooperation with neighboring states, the US and Europe is likely to follow, given that no Arab country — including Syria’s new government — has any interest in seeing Daesh revive or in further stoking the instability that has gripped the region since Oct. 7, 2023 — instability that Israel has sought to leverage for its own political and security gains.

The most complex challenge, however, may prove to be the fate of Daesh families who have left Al-Hol camp. Reports indicate that thousands of women, children and teenagers have departed for unknown destinations or through unspecified transfer arrangements.

Some analysts argue that transferring Daesh detainees to Iraq is ultimately safer for both countries

Hassan Al-Mustafa

The UN Refugee Agency said it had observed a “sharp drop” in the camp’s population in recent weeks and that authorities had informed it of a plan to relocate remaining residents to the Akhtarin camp in Aleppo governorate, requesting logistical support.

A Wall Street Journal report suggested that between 15,000 and 20,000 people are now “unaccounted for” and “likely at large,” following what the paper described as a “collapse of the detention system within the camp amid the change of control.” If accurate, these figures dramatically raise the stakes, transforming an already serious problem into a full-blown regional security challenge.

The risk lies in the potential reintegration of radicalized family members into local communities, the spread of extremist narratives and cross-border smuggling and infiltration across Syria and Iraq’s expansive frontiers — all of which could translate into renewed recruitment drives, fresh financial and logistical networks and a gradual return to violence. Particularly alarming is the situation of children who spent years inside the camp and are now teenagers or young adults. Having grown up in harsh, dehumanizing conditions, many harbor deep resentment and a closed-off worldview — making them prime targets for radicalization.

All this is unfolding as the US begins pulling its forces out of Syria in what officials have described as a “deliberate and conditions-based transition.” The Wall Street Journal reported that the withdrawal involves the full pullout of approximately 1,000 troops.

This American withdrawal — which more closely resembles a repositioning than a full retreat — cannot be separated from the broader reconfiguration of the Daesh file across the Middle East. Continued airstrikes, prison management and cross-border infiltration monitoring may yet limit its impact on Iraq and Syria, provided there is a sufficiently high level of joint coordination and regular intelligence sharing among all parties involved.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher specializing in Islamist movements, the evolution of religious discourse, and relations between the Gulf states and Iran.

X: @Halmustafa