Pakistan fuel oil exports scale fresh high in 2025, to hold in 2026

A security personnel stands guard near a Russian cargo ship carrying crude oil docked at the Karachi port in Karachi on June 28, 2023. (AFP/File)
Short Url
Updated 27 November 2025
Follow

Pakistan fuel oil exports scale fresh high in 2025, to hold in 2026

  • Exports so far this year have breached 1.4 million metric tons, up more than 16 percent from the full-year volume in 2024
  • The cargoes were mostly high-sulfur fuel oil and added mainly to marine fuel supply, while some went to refineries as feedstock

SINGAPORE/KARACHI: Pakistan’s annual fuel oil exports hit an all-time high this year and are expected to trend steady to higher next year, as higher domestic taxes deterred purchases while power plants are switching to cleaner alternatives, industry sources said.

The uptick in Pakistan’s fuel oil exports has added to supply in Asia, weighing further on prices in a market that is already well-supplied, traders and analysts said.

Fuel oil exports from Pakistan reached a fresh high this year, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG showed.

Exports so far this year have breached 1.4 million metric tons (about 8.9 million barrels), up over 16 percent from the full-year volume in 2024, the data from Kpler showed, with most of these exports ending up in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. LSEG data showed exports at 1.33 million tons so far in 2025, up from 1.11 million tons last year.

The cargoes were mostly high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) and added mainly to marine fuel supply, while some volumes went to refineries as feedstock, market sources said.

“Pakistan primarily exports HSFO to Asia which have been seeing an excess in supply post-summer season and have depressed cracks in the region,” said Valerie Panopio, vice president for oil commodity markets at Rystad Energy.

Pakistani refiners sold more fuel oil via tenders this year after the government raised taxes for domestic fuel oil consumption, while power generators gravitate toward alternatives such as coal and solar.

The leading Pakistan fuel oil exporter was Pak-Arab Refinery, according to traders, while other exporters included Cnergyico, Attock Refinery, National Refinery and Pakistan Refinery.

Cnergyico, which is the country’s largest oil refiner, has said it aims to boost exports. The company exported about 247,000 tons of fuel oil in fiscal year 2024–25, its vice-chairman Usama Qureshi said.

Qureshi added that he expects at least 50 percent growth this fiscal year, supported by increased use of light-sweet crude that lifted its output of very low sulfur fuel oil.

The company has partnered up with global trading house Vitol to supply more low-sulfur marine fuel from Pakistan ports.

“The increase in fuel oil exports in the past years have helped ensure that refinery runs are not constrained by inventory limits, something that was an issue in the previous years,” said Xin Shuai Huang, oil market analyst at FGE.

Next year, the exports are likely to maintain or climb further, according to Pakistan industry sources.

“The trend in furnace oil exports is only going to increase going forward in 2026,” said Syed Nazir Abbas Zaidi, secretary general of Pakistan’s oil companies advisory council.

“Fuel oil is no longer viable in electricity generation, and no longer profitable to sell in the domestic market, following the last budget,” Zaidi said.

Pakistan turned from a net importer into a net exporter of fuel oil in 2023.
 


Anti-fuel smuggling drive boosts Pakistan revenues 82%, PM office says

Updated 9 sec ago
Follow

Anti-fuel smuggling drive boosts Pakistan revenues 82%, PM office says

  • Crackdown targets illegal petroleum trade using GPS tracking and pump registration
  • July–November gains cited as government intensifies tax, customs enforcement

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani prime minister’s office said on Friday revenues from petroleum products rose 82% between July and November 2025 after a nationwide crackdown on fuel smuggling, as the government steps up enforcement to curb tax evasion and losses that have long strained public finances.

The increase was cited during a weekly performance review of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), where Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed authorities to accelerate action against smuggling and tax evasion, according to a statement issued by the PM’s Office.

Fuel smuggling has been a persistent problem in Pakistan, where subsidised or untaxed petroleum products are often trafficked across borders or sold through unregistered pumps, depriving the state of revenue and distorting domestic energy markets. Successive governments have blamed the practice for billions of rupees in annual losses, while international lenders have repeatedly urged tighter enforcement as part of broader fiscal reforms.

“Every year the nation loses billions due to smuggling,” Sharif was quoted as saying in a statement, praising customs authorities for successful operations and noting that revenues from petroleum products increased by 82% from July to November 2025 compared with the same period last year.

The PM said stricter enforcement had brought several goods back into the formal economy, adding that there would be “no leniency” toward those involved in tax evasion or illegal trade.

Officials briefed the prime minister that Pakistan Customs has rolled out a nationwide enforcement framework, including GPS tracking of petroleum product transportation, registration of fuel stations through a digital monitoring system, and legal action against illegal machinery under updated petroleum laws.

The government has also instructed provincial administrations to cooperate fully with federal authorities in shutting down illegal petrol pumps, the statement said.

Sharif said enforcement efforts would continue until smuggling networks were dismantled and tax compliance improved, as the government seeks to strengthen revenues amid ongoing economic reforms.

Pakistan has struggled for years with weak tax collection and a narrow revenue base, forcing repeated bailouts from the International Monetary Fund. Smuggling of fuel, cigarettes, electronics and consumer goods has been identified by policymakers as a major obstacle to improving revenues and stabilising the economy.

Independent research shows that Pakistan loses an estimated Rs750 billion (about $2.7 billion) annually in tax revenue due to illicit trade and smuggling across sectors such as petroleum, tobacco and pharmaceuticals. Broader analyzes suggest total tax revenue losses linked to the informal economy and smuggling may reach as high as Rs3.4 trillion (around $12.1 billion) a year, roughly a quarter of the government’s annual tax targets.

Smuggled petroleum products alone are thought to cost the state about Rs270 billion (around $960 million) a year in lost revenue, underscoring why authorities have focused recent enforcement efforts on fuel tracking and pump registration.