Kuwait’s economy set to grow 2.6% in 2025: IMF

The IMF also said that Kuwaiti banks have maintained strong capital and liquidity buffers, while non-performing loans remain low. Shutterstock
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Updated 25 September 2025
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Kuwait’s economy set to grow 2.6% in 2025: IMF

RIYADH: Kuwait’s economy is on a steady recovery in 2025, driven by rising oil output and resilient non-oil growth after contracting 2.6 percent last year, the International Monetary Fund has said. 

Following its staff visit to the country, the IMF said higher oil production, after the recent unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, is expected to lift the oil sector by 2.4 percent, while non-oil growth is projected at 2.7 percent.

The forecast aligns closely with the World Bank’s April projection of 2.2 percent growth this year, with expansion accelerating to 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2027. 

IMF Mission Chief for Kuwait Francisco Parodi said: “The economy is recovering amid higher oil production and robust non-oil growth. An incipient recovery is underway, with real GDP expanding by 1 percent in the first quarter of 2025.” 

He added: “For 2025, real GDP is projected to expand by 2.6 percent.” 

In July, the National Bank of Kuwait reported that the economy returned to positive territory in the first quarter of 2025, recording a 1 percent year-on-year increase, following seven consecutive quarters of contraction. 

The bank noted that the non-oil economy continued to expand, supported by momentum in manufacturing, real estate, and transportation, while the impact of previous oil production cuts has begun to fade. 

Kuwait also increased its oil production in April by 135,000 barrels per day, which is expected to bolster overall economic activity. 

The IMF report added that inflation continues to moderate, though lower oil prices are weighing on fiscal and external balances. Headline consumer price index inflation is projected to ease to 2.2 percent in 2025, down from 2.9 percent in 2024. 

“The fiscal deficit of the budgetary central government is projected to rise to 7.8 percent of GDP in FY2025/26, up from 2.2 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, primarily reflecting lower oil revenue,” said Parodi. 

He added: “In parallel, the current account surplus is projected to moderate to 26.5 percent of GDP in 2025, down from 29.1 percent of GDP in 2024, mainly due to lower oil exports.” 

Affirming the growth of the non-oil sector, the report noted that credit to the non-financial private sector is projected to rise to 6.1 percent in 2025, up from 5.2 percent in 2024. 

The IMF also said that Kuwaiti banks have maintained strong capital and liquidity buffers, while non-performing loans remain low. 

“The risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced. The economy is heavily exposed in the short run to upside and downside risks from shifts in oil prices and OPEC+ production quotas, which could arise from fluctuations in global growth, geopolitical tensions or non-OPEC+ supply,” said Parodi. 

He also lauded recent government initiatives, including the Public Debt Law enacted in March, which could further support the country’s economic recovery. 

The law, approved by Kuwait’s Ministry of Finance, aims to address fiscal pressures and finance infrastructure projects, marking the country’s return to international debt markets after an eight-year hiatus. 

At the time, the ministry said the law allows the government to issue up to 30 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($98 billion) in debt instruments, in either local or major foreign currencies, with maturities of up to 50 years. 

“A new Public Debt Law was enacted in March 2025, enabling the government to issue debt for the first time in almost a decade. Accelerating reform implementation is needed to promote economic diversification, enhance competitiveness, and boost non-oil growth,” said Parodi.


HALA Capital doubles down on next tech frontiers

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HALA Capital doubles down on next tech frontiers

  • Firm’s CMA license represents an expansion of its capabilities

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s HALA Capital is ready to double down on three of the Kingdom’s most strategic sectors as it prepares to deploy new investment structures and expand across fintech, artificial intelligence and logistics. 

With a newly granted license from the Capital Market Authority, the firm aims to position itself at the center of a rapidly evolving venture and mid-market landscape that is drawing increasing attention from global investors. 

In an interview with Arab News, Ali Abussaud, founder and CEO of HALA Capital, said the milestone reflects the firm’s readiness to scale its role in solving some of the region’s most persistent investment gaps. 

The CMA license represents an expansion of HALA Capital’s capabilities and long-term mission. 

Abussaud describes it as the realization of an ambition that once felt remote, saying it reflects accumulated knowledge, market experience and clarity on “what kind of gaps in the market — and also what kind of problems — we are going to end up solving.” 

He says that Gulf mid-cap and legacy firms remain among the region’s most underserved segments. 

Many operate “giant” businesses yet avoid bank financing or lack the structural support required to scale. 

HALA aims to fill this niche as a “boutique capital house,” providing attention and customization that larger financial institutions “don’t have the time to sit and listen and do.” 

Early venture beginnings 

HALA Capital’s current strategy is rooted in a time when venture activity across the Middle East and North Africa was limited and fragmented. 

Abussaud, who moved into investing after a career in banking and corporate consulting, recalls that he and his partners eventually began questioning “why there was no venture capital in the region.” 

Their first genuine venture-style deal came in 2016 with a Dubai insurance tech startup, an experience that exposed how challenging it was to assess early-stage companies using traditional financial criteria. 

For HALA, a Saudi startup ‘has to be today,’ with active operations, commercial registration and the ability to sell locally.

Ali Abussaud, founder and CEO of HALA Capital

Abussaud says they initially rejected startups because the numbers did not align with established expectations. Their approach changed only when they shifted their focus to founders and long-term vision. 

Between 2016 and 2019, HALA and its partners invested their own capital into 12 startups before formalizing the model. 

AI at early stage 

HALA views the regional AI market as still at its foundation stage. “The market has not really started yet,” Abussaud says, warning that many founders present offerings that are not genuine AI but simple integrations with external large language models. 

He argues the market needs original, regionally tailored models. 

Logistics innovation 

In logistics — “one of the biggest sectors we have,” he says — founders often misstep by attempting to compete directly with legacy operators in first- and last-mile delivery. 

HALA instead prioritizes models that “invent something” new and collaborate with incumbents through frameworks such as offtake agreements. 

What founders must deliver 

Abussaud urges founders to approach investors with research and honesty. “At least do some research about us, about what we do, about what we focus on,” he says. 

Founders should avoid “overselling” or presenting a “perfect product.” Instead, he advises them to “just be yourself” and openly discuss challenges and uncertainties. 

HALA Capital’s CMA license represents an expansion of its capabilities and long-term mission.

Transparency enables investors to provide relevant guidance, introductions and support.  

His preferred founder profile is “stubborn, but at the same time coachable.” He avoids both extremes: founders who resist all feedback and those who accept every suggestion without conviction. 

Skills balance is crucial — strong selling ability, relevant work experience and, for deep-tech companies, technical expertise. 

Defining a Saudi startup 

As more international founders target the Kingdom, HALA Capital has tightened its definition of what counts as a Saudi startup. 

A company qualifies if it has a headquarters or established operations in the Kingdom, regardless of the founders’ nationalities. 

An Egyptian-founded business with a relocated team and Saudi Arabia as its primary market qualifies. 

What does not qualify are startups that “want money in order to expand to Saudi Arabia.” 

For HALA, a Saudi startup “has to be today,” with active operations, commercial registration and the ability to sell locally. 

“It’s not the kind of market where you think you can do it remotely,” he says. 

On-the-ground presence, local sales teams and Saudi employees — especially for government B2B work — are essential.