Fitch affirms Kuwait’s AA- rating as oil dependence weighs on reform outlook

Kuwait’s external balance sheet remains the strongest among all Fitch-rated sovereigns. Shutterstock
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Updated 07 September 2025
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Fitch affirms Kuwait’s AA- rating as oil dependence weighs on reform outlook

  • Fitch projects a reported budget deficit of 5.6% of GDP in fiscal year 2025
  • Inflation forecast to remain below 3% through 2027

RIYADH: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kuwait’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at AA- with a stable outlook, citing the country’s strong fiscal and external balance sheets. 

The rating is supported by Kuwait’s substantial financial buffers, which the Kuwait Investment Authority manages. Yet Fitch warned that reliance on hydrocarbons, an oversized public sector, and governance scores that lag peers remain key risks. 

Public wages and subsidies account for 41 percent of gross domestic product, or 81 percent of government spending. 

The agency said Kuwait’s external balance sheet remains the strongest among all Fitch-rated sovereigns. “We forecast its sovereign net foreign assets will rise to 607 percent of GDP in 2025, from an estimated 576 percent in 2024, more than 10x the ‘AA’ median,” Fitch said.

“Prospects remain uncertain for meaningful structural reforms to reduce reliance on oil revenue,” even as the government proceeds with gradual spending rationalization and other reform measures, Fitch’s latest rating said.

The government recently enacted a long-delayed financing law that allows debt issuance for the first time since 2017. The legislation sets a borrowing cap of 30 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($98.1 billion) over 50 years. 

Since June, authorities have issued 1.2 billion dinars in domestic bonds, equivalent to 2.4 percent of GDP, easing pressure on the General Reserve Fund and supporting local capital market development. 

Nonetheless, Kuwait’s progress in diversifying its revenue base remains limited. Non-oil revenue continues to lag behind regional peers, averaging 8 percent of non-oil GDP between 2022 and 2024, compared to a Gulf Cooperation Council median of 10.2 percent. 

A 15 percent domestic minimum tax on multinational corporations came into effect in January, but the introduction of a value-added tax and the long-planned GCC excise tax appears unlikely in the near term. 

Fitch projects a reported budget deficit of 5.6 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2025 under the government’s methodology, which excludes investment income, compared to 2 percent the previous year. 

This widening gap is attributed to declining oil revenue and an uptick in capital expenditures. Including estimated returns from sovereign wealth fund investments, Fitch forecasts a budget surplus of 10 percent of GDP. 

Economic growth is expected to rebound modestly, with real GDP projected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2025, following two consecutive years of contraction due to OPEC+ production limits. 

Inflation is forecast to remain below 3 percent through 2027. Oil production is anticipated to increase gradually, but Kuwait’s fiscal break-even oil price is set to remain high at $81 per barrel in fiscal year 2025. 

Despite the resumption of borrowing, Kuwait’s debt levels remain low by international standards. 

Government debt is forecast to rise from 2.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to nearly 12 percent by 2027, still well below the AA median of 52.4 percent. 

However, Fitch warned of Kuwait’s heightened sensitivity to oil price volatility, estimating that a $10 shift in oil prices would impact the budget balance by approximately 4 percent of GDP. 

While Fitch’s Sovereign Rating Model assigns Kuwait a score equivalent to AAA, qualitative adjustments have lowered the final rating due to limited structural reform progress and persistent reliance on oil revenues. 

Kuwait’s governance performance also contributed to the rating constraints, with a World Bank Governance Indicator ranking of 54, reflecting low scores in voice and accountability and middling scores across other dimensions. 

Fitch said a rating downgrade could result from geopolitical instability or a sustained decline in fiscal and external metrics, particularly under prolonged low oil prices. Conversely, a sustained reduction in oil dependence through credible structural reforms could support a future upgrade. 

The country ceiling remains at AA+, two notches above the sovereign rating, reflecting a low likelihood of restrictions on capital flows or foreign currency transactions. 

Regional context 

Across the Gulf, ratings remain mixed. The UAE holds AA ratings from all three major agencies, supported by diversified revenue streams and sovereign assets. Saudi Arabia was upgraded by S&P to A+ in March, while Moody’s maintains an Aa3 rating. Qatar also retains AA/Aa2 ratings with stable outlooks. 

Bahrain, however, remains below investment grade, with B+ ratings from Fitch and S&P and B2 from Moody’s, reflecting ongoing fiscal and external vulnerabilities. 


Vision 2030 propelling Saudi Arabia’s global reputation

Updated 13 December 2025
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Vision 2030 propelling Saudi Arabia’s global reputation

  • Bold initiatives are positioning the Kingdom as a regional trailblazer in sustainability

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, aimed at revolutionizing the Kingdom’s economic and social landscape, has propelled the nation’s global reputation on a large scale, experts told Arab News. 

Launched in 2016, the program is a comprehensive guide to position Saudi Arabia as a powerhouse of business, tourism and non-oil activities, both regionally and globally. 

Speaking to Arab News, Thomas Kuruvilla, managing partner of Arthur D. Little Middle East & India, said that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is the cornerstone of the Kingdom’s transformation driving diversification, investment in non-oil sectors, and reshaping its global reputation. 

“Vision 2030 is not an end point but a launchpad. The foundations being laid today from renewable energy, automotive, and tourism to digital infrastructure and advanced industries are designed to endure and evolve well beyond 2030. The Kingdom’s leadership has already signaled that future frameworks will build on this momentum, ensuring that transformation continues into the decades ahead,” said Kuruvilla. 

He added: “Vision 2030 has firmly established Saudi Arabia as a reforming nation on the world stage. Saudi Arabia is creating an economic and social model that looks past 2030, one that aims to deliver sustainable growth, global competitiveness, and opportunity for generations to come.” 

Elie Farhat, chief of external affairs for Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business espoused similar views and said Saudi Arabia has actively courted foreign investment, tourism, and partnerships with global universities and businesses. 

“Saudi Arabia has become a market and society that is perceived as both investable and engaging. International organizations are setting up regional headquarters in Riyadh, universities are establishing partnerships, and businesses now openly discuss Saudi Arabia as a gateway to the future of the Middle East,” said Farhat. 

In October, Saudi Arabia’s Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih, while speaking at the Fortune Global Forum Conference in Riyadh, said the Vision 2030 program is progressing steadily, with 85 percent of the targets outlined in the initiative completed or on track by the end of 2024. 

Al-Falih also added that the number of international firms licensed to establish their regional headquarters in Riyadh has reached 675.

The regional HQ program offers a 30-year corporate tax exemption, withholding tax relief, and regulatory support, reflecting efforts to position the Kingdom as a regional business hub and attract multinational corporations to the capital.

Some of the noted firms that have established regional bases in Riyadh include Northern Trust, IHG Hotels & Resorts, PwC, and Deloitte. Laura Hernandez Gonzalez, managing director of Globant for the Middle East and North Africa, said Vision 2030 has turned diversification from an aspiration into a reality, adding that programs like the regional HQ initiative and the transformation of Riyadh into a true financial hub are convincing multinationals to set up real operations, not just representative offices.

“From the technology side, the Kingdom’s commitment to AI, cloud, and sovereign digital infrastructure is equally important. It signals not only ambition, but the capacity to build future-ready capabilities at scale,” said Gonzalez. 

She added: “This is how the Kingdom is changing global perceptions: from an energy powerhouse to a hub of innovation, capital and talent.” 

Earlier in December, Rachid Boulaouine, Middle East and Saudi Arabia director at Business France, told Al-Eqtisadiah that French companies operating in Saudi Arabia are expected to increase by 30 percent to 40 percent as more small and medium-sized enterprises move to establish a presence in the Kingdom. 

The changing global image

Kuruvilla said that Saudi Arabia’s pivot toward renewable energy and sustainability is not just symbolic, but it represents a decisive strategic shift in the Kingdom’s development model. 

Bolstering renewable energy capacity is critical for Saudi Arabia as it aims to generate 130 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

Kuruvilla said that flagship projects such as Neom — a futuristic city designed to run entirely on renewable energy — and the world’s largest green hydrogen plant highlight Saudi Arabia’s determination to lead in climate innovation. 

This is how the Kingdom is changing global perceptions: from an energy powerhouse to a hub of innovation, capital and talent.

Laura Hernandez Gonzalez, managing director of Globant for the Middle East and North Africa

“These initiatives are positioning the Kingdom as a regional trailblazer in sustainability and earning recognition as a nation “at the forefront of the clean-energy revolution,” with few global peers matching its scale and ambition,” said the Arthur D. Little official. 

He added: “Such bold moves are strengthening Saudi Arabia’s standing among international partners that prioritize climate action, demonstrating alignment with global sustainability imperatives rather than resistance.” 

According to Farhat, it is the young generation in Saudi Arabia guided by Vision who are playing a crucial role in elevating the Kingdom’s global reputation. 

“Saudis — particularly younger generations — have opened up to the world with a readiness to learn, build, and lead for 2030. The world, in turn, has opened up to Saudi Arabia, seeing it as a dynamic partner to invest in,” said Farhat. 

Saudi Arabia’s tourism growth

Gonzalez said that the global narrative about Saudi Arabia has shifted decisively, with international travelers increasingly considering the Kingdom as a favorite destination. 

She added that the growth in tourism numbers is one of the clearest proof points that Vision 2030 is delivering, also indicating the Kingdom’s growing appeal among the international public. 

“Ranking among the top three globally for growth in international tourist arrivals, surpassing 100 million visits in 2023, and contributing over 10 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025 are extraordinary achievements in such a short period,” said Gonzalez. 

She added: “Today, when I speak with investors, partners, or peers, Saudi Arabia is framed around opportunity, innovation, and delivery.” 

Kuruvilla said that the growth in tourism has signaled to the world that Saudi Arabia is no longer just an oil-rich nation, but a fast-emerging must-visit destination. 

HIGHLIGHT

The regional HQ program offers a 30-year corporate tax exemption, withholding tax relief, and regulatory support, reflecting efforts to position the Kingdom as a regional business hub and attract multinational corporations to the capital.

The Arthur D. Little official added that media coverage has reinforced this narrative, with tourism and entertainment mentions up 60 percent in 2024, underscoring the Kingdom’s growing appeal to global travelers. 

“International surveys echo this sentiment: a recent multi-country poll found 59 percent of respondents were interested in visiting Saudi Arabia — a figure unimaginable only a decade ago,” said Kuruvilla. 

Saudi Arabia passed its 2030 target of 100 million visitors in 2023, and the following year it welcomed 115.9 million tourists.

Having already reached its goal, the Kingdom raised its target to 150 million annual visitors by 2030.

In November, the Saudi Conventions and Exhibitions General Authority announced record growth in the Kingdom’s business events infrastructure, reporting a 32 percent year-on-year increase in capacity across 923 accredited venues.

The authority added that this expansion reflects significant investment aligned with Vision 2030’s tourism and event sector priorities, driving a 320 percent increase in exhibition space since 2018 to a total of 300,520 sq. meters.

Sports and technology

According to Kuruvilla, Saudi Arabia is cultivating an image as a global hub for business, technology, and innovation by hosting high-profile international events like the Future Investment Initiative, the LEAP tech conference, and the World Defense Show. 

He said that these events draw thousands of investors, entrepreneurs, and industry leaders to the Kingdom, showcasing opportunities beyond oil. 

“The cumulative effect of these marquee gatherings and the establishment of such innovation-driving entities is a narrative that Saudi Arabia is open for business and eager to lead in future industries – a notable departure from its old image of insularity,” said Kuruvilla. 

He added: “These gatherings are translating into tangible partnerships and long-term investment opportunities, solidifying Saudi Arabia’s reputation as a hub for innovation and global business exchange.” 

According to Gonzalez, events like FII and LEAP in Saudi Arabia prove the Kingdom’s execution capacity, as well as showing the nation’s capability to “convene the world, compress partnership cycles, and set the agenda on innovation, defense, and finance.” 

Highlighting the importance of sporting events, Kuruvilla told Arab News that sports have become a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s effort to bolster its global reputation. 

“From hosting Formula 1 races and high-profile boxing matches to purchasing stakes in English Premier League football clubs, the Kingdom has invested heavily in sports as an avenue for soft power. The pinnacle of this strategy is Saudi Arabia securing the rights to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup — a coup that instantly thrusts the country into the international spotlight,” said Kuruvilla. 

Adding to this momentum, Saudi Arabia has also positioned itself at the forefront of digital sports by hosting the Esports World Cup in Riyadh in 2024 and 2025, with record-breaking prize pools and participation from the world’s top gaming titles. 

“By associating with beloved sports and athletes, Saudi Arabia is effectively rebranding itself, especially to younger global audiences, as a vibrant and welcoming destination. Superstars like Cristiano Ronaldo playing for Saudi clubs – and posting about life in the Kingdom – further humanize Saudi Arabia’s image abroad,” added the Arthur D. Little official.