Analysis: What happens if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?

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Strait of Hormuz, Makran region in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, Gulf of Oman and the northern coast of Oman as seen from space. (Photo by NASA Earth Observatory/ AFP)
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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically vital chokepoints in the world, and any blockade by Iran would pose serious risks for transport of oil. (AFP/File)
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Updated 17 June 2025
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Analysis: What happens if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?

  • Tehran has never fully closed the strategic waterway but it has threatened to do so many times in response to geopolitical tensions
  • Iran-Israel war has potentially immediate ramifications for energy-exporting Gulf states and, in the longer term, for the entire world

LONDON: It is thanks to a quirk of ancient geological history that almost half the global oil and gas reserves are located under or around the waters of the Arabian Gulf, and that the flow of the bulk of bounty to the world must pass through the narrow maritime bottleneck that is the Strait of Hormuz.

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the world that Israel’s unprecedented attack on Iran earlier in the day was an act of self-defense, aimed at disrupting its nuclear program.

By Saturday, Israel had broadened its targets from nuclear facilities, ballistic-missile factories and military commanders to oil facilities in apparent retaliation for waves of missile and drone strikes on its population centers.




This handout satellite image released by Planet Labs on June 15, 2025, shows close up view of damaged tunnel entrances at Kermanshah missile facilities, western Iran on June 15, 2025. (© 2025 PLANET LABS PBC via AFP)

In his video broadcast, Netanyahu said: “We will hit every site and every target of the ayatollahs’ regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days.”

In a stroke, Israel had escalated the conflict into a crisis with potentially immediate ramifications for all the oil- and gas-producing Gulf states and, in the longer term, for economies of the region and the entire world.

Reports originating from lawmakers in Tehran began to circulate suggesting that Iran was now threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Sardar Esmail Kowsari, a member of Iran’s parliament and a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned in an interview that closing the waterway “is under consideration and that Iran will make the best decision with determination.”

While the strait is, in the words of the US Energy Information Administration, “the world’s most important oil transit choke point” — about a fifth of the world’s total petroleum liquids consumption passes through it — the two main oil producers, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are not without alternative routes to world markets for their products.




This handout natural-color image acquired with MODIS on NASA's Terra satellite taken on February 5, 2025 shows the Gulf of Oman and the Makran region (C) in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz (L) and the northern coast of Oman (bottom). (Photo by NASA Earth Observatory / AFP)

Saudi Aramco operates twin oil and liquid gas pipelines which can carry up to 7 million barrels a day from Abqaiq on the Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Aramco has consistently shown resilience and ability to meet the demands of its clients, even when it was attacked in 2019.

The UAE’s onshore oil fields are linked to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman — beyond the Strait of Hormuz — by a pipeline capable of carrying 1.5 million barrels a day. The pipeline has attracted Iran’s attentions before. In 2019, four oil tankers, two each belonging to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, were attacked off the port of Fujairah.

Iran has never fully closed the Strait of Hormuz but it has threatened to do so multiple times in response to geopolitical tensions.

Historically, it has used the threat of closure as a strategic bargaining tool, particularly during periods of heightened conflict. In 2012, for instance, it threatened to block the strait in retaliation for US and European sanctions but did not follow through.




This US Navy handout screenshot of a video shows fast-attack craft from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy swarming Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi as it transits the Strait of Hormuz on May 3, 2023. (AFP/File)

Naturally, disruptions in supplies would cause an enormous increase in energy price and related costs such as insurance and shipping. This would indirectly impact inflation and prices worldwide from the US to Japan.

According to the experts, Iran can employ unmanned drones, such as the Shahed series, to target specific shipping routes or infrastructure in the strait. It may also attempt to use naval vessels to physically obstruct passage through the strait.

Ironically, the one country in the region that would face no direct consequences from a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is Israel. All of its estimated consumption of 220,000 barrels of crude a day comes via the Mediterranean, from countries including Azerbaijan (exported via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, which runs through Turkiye to the eastern Mediterranean), the US, Brazil, Gabon and Nigeria.

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The capability to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is one thing, a full closure is quite another, as it would harm Iran’s own economy given that it relies on the waterway for its oil exports.

History teaches that shutting off the flow of oil from the Arabian Gulf is far easier said than achieved. The first country to attempt to prevent oil exports from the Gulf was Britain, which in 1951 blockaded exports from the Abadan refinery at the head of the Gulf in response to the Iranian government’s decision to nationalize the country’s oil industry.

The motive was purely financial. In 1933 Britain, in the shape of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Co., a forerunner of today’s BP, had won a lopsided oil concession from the Iranian government and was reluctant to give it up.

The blockade did not last — impoverished post-war Britain needed Abadan’s oil as badly as Iran — but the consequences of Britain’s actions are arguably still being felt today.

The very existence of the current Iranian regime is a consequence of the 1953 coup jointly engineered by Britain and the US, which overthrew then Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, architect of the oil nationalization plan, and set Iran on the path to the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

The first modern blockade of oil shipments in the Gulf happened the following year, when Saddam Hussein, hoping to take advantage of the disruption caused by the revolution and the ousting of the shah, attacked Iran, triggering the disastrous eight-year Iran-Iraq War.

Still equipped with the shah’s US-supplied and trained air force and navy, Iran’s first reaction was successfully to blockade Iraqi warships and oil tankers in Umm Qasr, Iraq’s only deep-water seaport.




Picture released on November 17, 1980 of a column of smoke billowing from an Iranian helicopter shot by Iraqi anti-aircraft fire, near Abadan, during Iran-Iraq war. (AFP/File)

Iraqi aircraft began attacking Iranian shipping in the Gulf, provoking an Iranian response that focused initially on neutral ships bringing supplies to Iraq via Kuwait, a development that soon escalated into attacks by both sides on shipping of all flags.

The first tanker to be hit was a Turkish ship bombed by Iraqi aircraft on May 30, 1982, while loading at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal. The first to be declared a total loss was a Greek tanker, struck by an Iraqi Exocet missile on Dec. 18, 1982.

In terms of lives lost and ships damaged or destroyed, the so-called Tanker War was an extremely costly episode, which caused a temporary sharp rise in oil prices. By the time it ended in 1987, more than 450 ships from 15 countries had been attacked, two-thirds of them by Iraq, and 400 crew members of many nationalities had been killed.

Among the dead were 37 American sailors. On May 17, 1987, American frigate the USS Stark, patrolling in the Gulf midway between Qatar and the Iranian coast, was hit by two Exocet missiles fired by an Iraqi Mirage jet.




A port quarter view of the guided missile frigate USS STARK listing to port after being struck by an Iraqi-launched Exocet missile on May 17, 1987. (Wimimedia Commons: Pharaoh Hound)

But at no point throughout the Tanker War was the flow of oil out through the Strait of Hormuz seriously disrupted.

“Iran couldn’t fully close the strait even in the 1980s,” said Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

“It’s true that in those days the UK and others had a significant mine-sweeping capacity, which we lack today. But even if Iran laid mines again or interfered with shipping in the strait in other ways it will almost certainly draw in US maritime forces from the 5th Fleet (based in Bahrain) and perhaps air assets too.




US Navy warships are seen transiting the Strait of Hormuz, during a deployment to the US 5th Fleet area of operations. (AFP/File)

“Also, attempting to close Hormuz will hit their own significant illegal oil trade.”

Regardless, the Iranians “will be very tempted to do this. But it is a delicate calculation — doing enough to get Russia and in particular China involved in support of de-escalation but not enough to provoke US action, effectively on the side of Israel,” Jenkins said.

In an analysis published in February last year, following an uptick in maritime aggression by Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the Center for Security Policy, a Washington think tank, concluded that because 76 percent of the crude oil that passes through it is destined for Asian markets, “as one of Tehran’s sole remaining allies, it would not be in China’s best interest for the strait to fully close.”




Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. (REUTERS/File Photo)

Lessons learned during the 1980s Tanker War are relevant today. In the wake of that conflict, an analysis by the Strauss Center for International Security and Law offered a cool-headed assessment of the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz to any attempt at enforced closure by Iran.

“Our research and analysis reveals significant limits to Iran’s ability to materially reduce the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz for a sustained period of time,” the report, published in 2008, said.

“We find that a large-scale Iranian campaign would yield about a 5 percent chance of stopping each tanker’s transit with small boat suicide attacks and a roughly 12 percent chance of stopping each tanker’s transit with volleys of anti-ship cruise missiles.”

Initially, the Tanker War led to a 25 percent drop in commercial shipping and a temporary sharp rise in insurance premiums and the price of crude oil.




Tally of attacks on oil tankers during the so-called Tanker War of the 1980s. (Wikimedia Commons)

“But the Tanker War did not significantly disrupt oil shipments … Even at its most intense point, it failed to disrupt more than 2 percent of ships passing through the Gulf,” the report said.

The bottom line, it said, “is that if a disruption to oil flows were to occur, the world oil market retains built in mechanisms to assuage initial effects. And since the long-term disruption of the strait, according to our campaign analysis, is highly improbable, assuaging initial effects might be all we need.

“Panic, therefore, is unnecessary.”

Israel’s critics say it already has much to answer for in unleashing its unilateral assault on Iran. Netanyahu has been claiming for years that Iran was “only months away” from producing a nuclear weapon and his claim that that is the case now has no more credibility than before.

“Benjamin Netanyahu has started a war with Iran that has no justification,” said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy at Washington think tank the Cato Institute.




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s true motives in launching his attack on Iran at this time are not hard for political observers to divine. (Pool Photo via AP, File)

Friday’s opening attacks overtook US President Donald Trump’s statement earlier that same day that “the United States is committed to a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear issue.”

“Iran was not on the precipice of acquiring nuclear weapons,” Logan said. “It had not thrown out IAEA inspectors, from whom all information about the Iran nuclear program flowed. It had not enriched uranium to weapons-grade.”

Netanyahu’s true motives in launching his attack at this time are not hard for political observers to divine.

He has successfully derailed US-Iranian nuclear talks — ongoing negotiations, due to have been continued on Sunday in Oman, were canceled.

The attack has also caused the postponement of the three-day joint Saudi-French Gaza peace summit at the UN, which had been due to begin on Tuesday, with the issue of Palestinian sovereignty high on the agenda — anathema to Netanyahu’s right-wing, anti-two-state government.

“Israel has the right to choose its own foreign policy,” Logan said.

But “at the same time, it has the responsibility to bear the costs of that policy.”
 

 


Iraq’s Kurdistan enjoys all-day state electricity

Updated 5 sec ago
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Iraq’s Kurdistan enjoys all-day state electricity

Irbil: More than 30 percent of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region now has 24-hour state electricity, authorities said Thursday, with plans to extend full coverage by the end of 2026.
The northern region of Kurdistan has long promoted itself as a haven of relative stability in an otherwise volatile country.
Despite Iraq’s vast oil wealth, the national grid struggles to meet demand, leaving most areas reliant on imported energy and subject to frequent power cuts.
“Today, two million people across the Kurdistan region enjoy 24-hour electricity... that’s 30 percent of the population,” including the cities of Irbil, Duhok and Sulaimaniyah, said regional prime minister Masrour Barzani.
In 2024, the Kurdistan Regional Government launched “Project Runaki” to deliver round-the-clock power in a region where, like much of Iraq, residents often turn to costly and polluting private generators.
The region’s electricity minister, Kamal Mohammed, said residents were now enjoying “uninterrupted, cleaner, and more affordable electricity.”
“Rollout to other areas is expected to be completed by the end of 2026,” he told AFP.
As part of the transition, roughly 30 percent of the 7,000 private generators operating across Kurdistan have already been decommissioned, he said, a move that has contributed to an estimated annual reduction of nearly 400,000 tons of CO2 emissions.
The project also aims to lower household electricity bills, offering a cheaper alternative to the combined cost of grid power and private generator fees.
However, bills will still depend on consumption and are likely to increase during peak summer and winter months.
Mohammed said the project’s success hinges on the introduction of “smart” meters to curb electricity theft, as well as a new tariff system to promote responsible usage.
“More power has been added to the grid to support 24/7 access,” he said.
Kurdistan has doubled its gas production in the past five years, and most of the power supply comes from local gas production, Mohammed said.
Despite Iraq’s abundant oil and gas reserves, years of conflict have devastated its infrastructure.
The country remains heavily reliant on imports, particularly from neighboring Iran, which frequently interrupts supply. It also imports electricity from Jordan and Turkiye, while seeking to boost its own gas output.
“We stand ready to offer our technical support and assistance” to the federal government, Mohammed said.
In Irbil, resident Bishdar Attar, 38, said the biggest change was the absence of noisy and polluting generators.
“The air is now clear,” he said. “We can now use home appliances freely... as needed.”

Gaza civil defense says 20 killed in Israeli air strikes

Updated 26 min 42 sec ago
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Gaza civil defense says 20 killed in Israeli air strikes

  • Gaza’s civil defense said the first strike hit a tent housing displaced people in Khan Yunis in the south, and the second struck a camp in the north
  • The bombings came as Netanyahu met Trump in Washington and discussed the ongoing campaign to defeat Hamas i

GAZA CITY: Gaza’s civil defense agency on Wednesday said that 20 people, including at least six children, were killed in two Israeli air strikes overnight in the Palestinian territory.
Agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP the first hit a tent housing displaced people in Khan Yunis in the south shortly after midnight local time (2100 GMT Tuesday) and the second struck a camp in the north soon afterwards.
The Israeli military said it was looking into the report when contacted by AFP.
The bombings came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met US President Donald Trump in Washington and discussed the ongoing campaign to defeat Hamas in Gaza.
Afterwards, he restated Israel’s aims to secure the release of all hostages taken during the Palestinian militants’ October 7, 2023 attack, and “the elimination” of its “military and governing capabilities.”
Gaza’s civil defense agency said 29 people were killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza on Tuesday, with victims also including people displaced by 21 months of conflict.
Bassal said the first strike on Wednesday killed 10 members of the same family sheltering in the Al-Mawasi area of Khan Yunis while the second, on the Al-Shati camp near Gaza City, also left more than 30 wounded.
The victims were from two families, he added.
“The explosion was massive, like an earthquake,” said Zuhair Judeh, 40, who saw the Al-Shati air strike.
“It destroyed the house and several nearby homes. The bodies and remains of the martyrs were scattered,” he added, calling it “a horrific massacre.”
Several people remained missing, presumed trapped under the rubble, he said.
Abeer Al-Sharbasi, 36, described the air strike as “terrifying” and said it happened as she and her family were asleep in a nearby tent.
“You can’t predict when or why they’ll bomb you. We have nothing left but to surrender ourselves to God.”
Due to restrictions imposed on media in the Gaza Strip and difficulties accessing the area, AFP is unable to independently verify the death tolls and details shared by the parties involved.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Of 251 hostages seized during attack, 49 are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 57,575 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers the figures reliable.


Greek ship sinks off Yemen after Houthi attack, crew being rescued, sources say

Updated 35 min 50 sec ago
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Greek ship sinks off Yemen after Houthi attack, crew being rescued, sources say

  • Some of the crew were in lifejackets in the water and at least five people have been rescued so far

ATHENS: The Liberia-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier Eternity C has sunk after a Houthi attack off Yemen, four maritime security sources told Reuters on Wednesday, and efforts to rescue the crew were under way.
Some of the crew were in lifejackets in the water and at least five people have been rescued so far, two of the sources said.


Jailed PKK leader Ocalan says armed struggle with Turkiye over

Updated 09 July 2025
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Jailed PKK leader Ocalan says armed struggle with Turkiye over

  • Ocalan urged Turkiye’s parliament to set up a commission to oversee disarmament and manage a broader peace process

Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), appeared in a rare online video on Wednesday to say the group’s armed struggle against Turkiye has ended, and he called for a full shift to democratic politics.

In the recording, dated June and released by Firat News Agency, which is close to the PKK, Ocalan urged Turkiye’s parliament to set up a commission to oversee disarmament and manage a broader peace process.

The PKK, which has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state for 40 years and is labelled a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the United States and the EU, decided in May to disband after an initial written appeal from Ocalan in February.

“The phase of armed struggle has ended. This is not a loss, but a historic gain,” he said in the video, the first time since he was jailed in 1999 that either footage of him or a recording of his voice has been released.

“The armed struggle stage must now be voluntarily replaced by a phase of democratic politics and law.”

Ocalan, seated in a beige polo shirt with a glass of water on the table in front of him, appeared to read from a transcript in the seven-minute video. He was surrounded by six other jailed PKK members all looking straight at the camera.

He said the PKK had ended its separatist agenda.

“The main objective has been achieved – existence has been acknowledged,” he said. “What remains would be excessive repetition and a dead end.”

Ocalan added that Turkiye’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party, the third largest in parliament in Ankara, should work alongside other political parties.


South Sudan says US deportees under government care

Updated 09 July 2025
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South Sudan says US deportees under government care

  • The South Sudanese foreign ministry released a statement on the migrants saying: “They are currently in Juba under the care of the relevant authorities, who are screening them and ensuring their safety and well-being”

JUBA: War-torn South Sudan has said it is looking after a group of eight criminal migrants controversially deported from the United States.
Only one of them is from South Sudan. The administration of US President Donald Trump is trying to move unwanted migrants to third countries as some nations refuse to accept returnees.
The rest comprise two people from Myanmar, two from Cuba, and one each from Vietnam, Laos and Mexico.
The decision has been fought in American courts.
“They are currently in Juba under the care of the relevant authorities, who are screening them and ensuring their safety and well-being,” the South Sudanese foreign ministry statement said late Tuesday.
It did not give details, but said the “careful and well-studied decision” was part of “ongoing bilateral engagement.”
“South Sudan responded positively to a request from the US authorities as a gesture of goodwill, humanitarian cooperation, and commitment to mutual interests,” it added.
United Nations experts, appointed by the UN Human Rights Council but who do not speak on behalf of the UN, have criticized the move.
“International law is clear that no one shall be sent anywhere where there are substantial grounds for believing that the person would be in danger of being subjected to ... torture, enforced disappearance or arbitrary deprivation of life,” 11 independent UN rights experts said in a statement.
The deportees left the United States for South Sudan in May but their flight ended up in Djibouti when a US district court imposed a stay on third-country deportations. That ruling was overturned by the Supreme Court earlier this month.
The group arrived in South Sudan on June 5 with an official, speaking on condition of anonymity, saying they had been returned by US Marines.
Foreign ministry spokesperson Apuk Ayuel Mayen said Juba maintains a strong commitment to its people, including “its nationals returning under any circumstances” and “persons with recognized links to South Sudan.”
Simmering rivalry between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and his vice president Riek Machar boiled over into open hostilities in March.
The tensions have raised fears of a return to full-scale war in the world’s youngest country, where a civil war killed some 400,000 people in 2013-2018.