RIYADH: Energy investment globally is projected to hit a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, driven by a surge in clean power spending amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, according to an analysis.
In its latest report, the International Energy Agency said that technologies in the sector, including renewables, nuclear, and storage, are set to attract $2.2 trillion in investment.
Investments in oil, natural gas and coal are set to reach $1.1 trillion this year.
The uptick in clean energy spending aligns with the wider trend observed globally as most nations, including oil-rich countries in the Middle East, have set net-zero targets to reduce emissions and combat climate change.
Saudi Arabia plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, while the UAE aims to reach the goal in 2050.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said: “Amid the geopolitical and economic uncertainties that are clouding the outlook for the energy world, we see energy security coming through as a key driver of the growth in global investment this year to a record $3.3 trillion as countries and companies seek to insulate themselves from a wide range of risks.”
He added: “The fast-evolving economic and trade picture means that some investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to new energy project approvals, but in most areas we have yet to see significant implications for existing projects.”
Electricity takes the lead
IEA said that investment trends in the sector are being shaped by the onset of the “Age of Electricity” and the rapid rise in demand for industry, cooling, electric mobility, data centers and artificial intelligence.
A decade ago, investments in fossil fuels were 30 percent higher than those in electricity generation, grids and storage.
In 2025, electricity investments are set to be some 50 percent higher than the total amount being spent bringing oil, natural gas and coal to market, reaching $1.5 trillion.
In April, another report by the IEA also highlighted the growing demand for electricity globally driven by the rapid rollout of AI and data centers.
At that time, the think tank said electricity consumption by data centers powered by AI is expected to double by 2030 to reach 945 terawatt-hours, creating new challenges for energy security and carbon dioxide emission goals.
IEA added that electricity consumption by data centers has increased by 12 percent annually since 2019 to reach 1.5 percent of the global amount in 2024.
Data centers are a growing user of electricity. Shutterstock
Clean energy surge
According to the report, spending on low-emission power generation has almost doubled over the past five years, led by solar PV.
The energy agency projected that investment in solar, both utility-scale and rooftop, is expected to reach $450 billion in 2025, making it the largest single item in the world’s energy investment inventory.
“Fierce competition among suppliers and ultra-low costs are seeing imported solar panels, often paired with batteries, become an important driver of energy investment in many emerging and developing economies,” said the IEA.
Battery storage investments are also climbing rapidly, surging above $65 billion this year.
Saudi Arabia has also set ambitious goals to generate clean energy, primarily using solar power.
The Kingdom plans to generate 58.7 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, with 40 GW from solar PV. It also plans to generate 16 GW from wind energy and 2.7 GW from concentrated solar power.
This commitment is part of the broader National Renewable Energy Program strategy, aimed at diversifying its energy portfolio and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
IEA added that capital flows to nuclear power have grown by 50 percent over the past five years and are on course to reach around $75 billion in 2025.
The US and the Middle East accounted for nearly half of a resurgent level of final investment decisions for natural gas power.
Saudi Arabia is also planning to include nuclear energy as a key part of the Kingdom’s energy mix.
In January, the Kingdom’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the nation is planning to begin enriching and selling uranium.
Launched in 2017, Saudi Arabia’s National Atomic Energy Project is a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s strategy to diversify its energy sources.
If investments in carbon capture, utilization and storage move ahead as planned, spending in this sector will rise more than tenfold by 2027 from current levels, the IEA added.
“Low-emissions fuel projects are particularly prone to policy uncertainty. Some hydrogen projects have been canceled or delayed in the past 12 months, but there remains a pipeline of approved projects that require around $8 billion of investment in 2025, almost double the level seen in 2024,” said the report.
In November, NEOM Green Hydrogen Co.’s CEO Wesam Al-Ghamdi told Arab News that Saudi Arabia is on track to begin production in the world’s largest green hydrogen project by 2026.
The plant, located in the Kingdom’s $500-billion giga-project, will rely entirely on solar and wind energy to power a 2.2-GW electrolyzer designed to produce hydrogen continuously.
Grid investment gap
Spending patterns in the energy sector remain very uneven globally, according to the IEA. Shutterstock
According to the IEA, investment in grids — now at $400 billion per year — is failing to keep pace with spending on generation and electrification.
“Maintaining electricity security would require investment in grids to rise toward parity with generation spending by the early 2030s. However, this is being held back by lengthy permitting procedures and tight supply chains for transformers and cables,” said the energy agency.
The report further said that lower oil prices and demand expectations are set to result in the first year-on-year fall in upstream oil investment since the COVID-19 slump in 2020.
The expected 6 percent drop is driven mainly by a sharp decline in spending on US tight oil.
However, investment in new liquefied natural gas facilities is on a strong upward trajectory as new projects in the US, Qatar, Canada and elsewhere prepare to come online.
The report added that the global LNG market is set to experience its largest-ever capacity growth between 2026 and 2028.
Geographical shifts
According to the IEA, spending patterns in the energy sector remain very uneven globally — with many developing economies, especially in Africa, struggling to mobilize capital for energy infrastructure.
The report added that Africa accounts for just 2 percent of global clean energy investment, despite being home to 20 percent of the world’s population.
“To close the financing gap in African countries and other emerging and developing economies, international public finance needs to be scaled up and used strategically to bring in larger volumes of private capital,” said the IEA.
China is the largest global energy investor by a wide margin, and its share of global clean energy investment has risen from a quarter 10 years ago to almost one-third now.
Even though well behind China, the IEA added that energy investment trends in India and Brazil stand out among emerging and developing economies.
“Mobilising international finance for clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies will need to be combined with the development of domestic capital markets,” added the energy agency.
