Pakistan inflation inches up 3.5% year-on-year in May 2025

Labourers sort mangoes before packing them into boxes at a farm on the outskirts of Hyderabad in Pakistan's southern Sindh province on May 31, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 03 June 2025
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Pakistan inflation inches up 3.5% year-on-year in May 2025

  • Inflation has cooled significantly, easing from 37.97% in May 2023
  • Federal budget for fiscal year 2025-26 will be released on June 10

KARACHI: Pakistan’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.5% in May, higher than the April 2025 reading of 0.3%, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation decreased by 0.2% in May 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.2% in May 2024. The CPI inflation average during 11MFY25 stood at 4.61%, compared to 24.52% in 11MFY24.

Inflation has cooled significantly, easing from 37.97% in May 2023.

The CPI reading is higher than the government’s expectations. In its monthly economic report released last week, the finance ministry expected inflation to ease to between 1.5% and 2% year-on-year in May, before picking up to 3%-4% in June.

“CPI inflation General, increased to 3.5% on year-on-year basis in May 2025 as compared to 0.3% of the previous month and 11.8% in May 2024,” the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said in its monthly report.

“On month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.2% in May 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.2% in May 2024.”

Food items, whose prices recorded an increase, included Eggs (24.38%), Chicken (8.63%), Condiments and Spices (5.50%), Sugar (4.07%), Gur (3.66%), Milk Powder (2.80%), Potatoes (1.64%), Butter (1.31%), Fresh Fruits (1.21%), Pulse Gram (1.09%), Beverages (0.87%), Meat (0.82%), Sweetmeat (0.79%) and Pulse Moong (0.53%).

Non-food items that witnessed an increase in rates were Cotton Cloth (3.20%), Motor Vehicles (1.86%), Postal Services (1.74%), Major Tools & Equipment (1.23%), Readymade Garments (1.02%), Tailoring (0.95%) and Cleaning & Laundry (0.65%).

The latest CPI reading was also higher than projections made by several brokerage houses.

JS Global projected Pakistan’s headline inflation to inch up to 2.7% in May.

“Pakistan’s CPI is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May. The base effect is now fading, signaling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%,” JS Global had said in a report.

Last month, the State Bank of Pakistan cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 11%, the lowest policy rate since March 2022 (9.75%). The central bank has cut the rate by 1,100 bps since June from an all-time high of 22%.


Pakistan launches cashless Ramadan market in Islamabad to promote digital payments

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Pakistan launches cashless Ramadan market in Islamabad to promote digital payments

  • Pilot market allows shoppers to buy subsidized food using digital payments
  • Initiative aims to improve transparency and public relief during Ramadan

KARACHI: Pakistan has launched a cashless subsidized Ramadan food market in the capital Islamabad, the interior ministry said on Wednesday, introducing digital payments for essential goods as authorities try to improve transparency and affordability during the Muslim holy month.

The facility in the G-6 Aabpara area allows citizens to purchase vegetables, fruit and staple food items at regulated prices without cash, part of a broader push toward digitizing subsidy delivery.

Ramadan bazaars, which are temporary and often state-supported markets, are set up across Pakistan each year to limit price spikes as demand rises during fasting hours and evening meals.

Ramadan is likely to start on Feb. 19 in Pakistan. 

“The objective is to provide the public affordable and quality items. No negligence in public relief will be tolerated,” the interior ministry said in a statement.

Officials said the market will operate daily from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. and includes private vendors under monitoring mechanisms to ensure goods are sold according to wholesale market rates.

Authorities also instructed administrators to strengthen cleanliness, security and complaint-handling systems and ensure price lists are prominently displayed.

Pakistan last year launched its first-ever cashless weekly market in Islamabad, but slow Internet speeds and patchy phone connectivity have hampered adoption among vendors and shoppers. 

The government plans to turn Islamabad into Pakistan’s first fully cashless city, using QR-code payments to formalize retail transactions, reduce tax evasion and improve documentation in one of South Asia’s most informally run economies.

Pakistan relies heavily on cash, enabling widespread tax evasion and limiting financial transparency. Economists say expanding digital payments can raise government revenues, curb corruption, and make marketplaces safer for customers and traders.

Pakistan has increasingly experimented with targeted subsidies and digital systems to manage food affordability during Ramadan, when consumption rises sharply and lower-income households face pressure after years of high inflation.

Last week, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif launched a Rs38 billion ($136 million) Ramadan relief package, pledging direct digital cash transfers of Rs13,000 ($47) each to 12.1 million low-income families across Pakistan.

The government will distribute the relief package through bank accounts and regulated mobile wallet platforms, fully replacing the previous utility store-based subsidy model with a digital payment mechanism overseen by the State Bank of Pakistan.