LISBON: Portugal’s general election campaign ends on Friday for a vote that Prime Minister Luis Montenegro is expected to win, but with no guarantee he can form a more stable government.
Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition is tipped to win 34 percent of the ballot, ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) on 26 percent, according to a poll by the Portuguese Catholic University published by local media on Friday.
The upstart far-right Chega (“Enough“) party could take 19 percent of the vote — almost the same as it did in March 2024 elections — to consolidate its position as Portugal’s third political force and kingmaker.
Montenegro, as a result, risks finding himself again at the head of a minority government, caught between the PS, in power from 2015 to 2024, and Chega, with which he has refused to govern.
“People are fed up with elections, people want stability,” the premier, a 52-year-old lawyer, said during a final rally in Lisbon as he urged voters to give him a stronger mandate this time around.
Sunday’s early election will be Portugal’s third in just over three years.
It was called in March after Montenegro lost a confidence vote in parliament following accusations against him of conflicts of interest stemming from his consulting firm’s business.
As such, “staying in power would already be a good result” for the prime minister, who took a “calculated risk” in the hope of strengthening his parliamentary seat, political commentator Paula Espirito Santo told AFP.
Opinion polls appear to indicate an AD majority is unlikely but Montenegro could win the support of the Liberal Initiative party, which is predicted to secure 6.4 percent of the vote.
The PS candidate, Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, has accused Montenegro of having engineered the elections “to avoid explaining himself” about his consultancy firm to a parliamentary inquiry.
“We need a change, a prudent one that will guarantee the political stability which Luis Montenegro can no longer provide,” the Socialist candidate said at a final Lisbon rally on Friday.
Faced with the risk of persistent instability, analysts and voters criticized a political class out of touch with voters who are unenthused by the prospect of another ballot.
“I’ve really had enough of all these political games. They don’t do anything for us,” said Maria Pereira, a 53-year-old saleswoman in a working-class district of Lisbon.
“Normally I vote for the small parties but this time I’m not going to waste my time going to vote.”
But Paula Tomas, a 52-year-old dentist, said Montenegro had won her confidence.
“He has the ability to get things done, but he needs time,” she said at an AD rally, waving a white-and-orange ruling party flag.
Under the Socialist Party, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries, but Montenegro’s government has since strengthened immigration policy.
Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15 percent of the total population.
Immigration and suspicions about the prime minister might be fertile ground for the far right.
But Chega has also faced embarrassment, including claims that one of its lawmakers in the Azores stole luggage from airport carousels.
Its campaign was interrupted on Tuesday and Thursday when its president, 42-year-old former football commentator Andre Ventura, fell ill while campaigning and was rushed to hospital both times.
He was resting and will not longer appear at the party’s final rally. Instead he released a video message where he once again called for “an end to corruption and uncontrolled immigration.”
All political campaigning has to stop at midnight (2300 GMT Friday) before Sunday’s poll.
