Why Israel’s Gaza reoccupation threat is fueling fears of regional spillover

Israeli troops deploy at a position near the southern Israeli border with the Gaza Strip, on May 8, 2025, amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian militant movement Hamas. (AFP)
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Updated 11 May 2025
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Why Israel’s Gaza reoccupation threat is fueling fears of regional spillover

  • Analysts warn of slide toward ethnic cleansing as Israel signals plans for indefinite military control over enclave
  • Palestinian plight worsens as far-right voices increasingly influence Israeli war aims ahead of Trump’s Gulf tour

LONDON: For the people of Gaza, the threat of destruction, displacement and death at the hands of the Israeli military is nothing new.

But for the next week they will living with a countdown to a threatened operation that would be unprecedented: the complete and indefinite occupation of Gaza by Israel, and the forcing of its Palestinian population into a tiny area in the south of the strip.

If such an unthinkable end-game exercise were to go ahead — and reports that tens of thousands of Israeli reservists are being called up suggests it might — critics of the plan say Israel appears to have forgotten the lessons of the events that led to its own creation in 1948.

According to sources inside the Israeli government, the only thing standing between the Palestinians of Gaza and this 21st-century Nakba is next week’s visit to the region by US President Donald Trump, who is due to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE between Tuesday and Friday. 




A picture taken near Israel's border with Gaza shows Israeli armored vehicles and bulldozers returning to the besieged Palestinian territory on May 8, 2025, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (AFP) 

On Tuesday this week an unnamed Israeli defense official told AP that the operation would not be launched before Trump had left the region, adding there was a “window of opportunity” for a ceasefire and a hostage deal during the president’s visit.

And so, the countdown to the military operation began. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his security cabinet had approved an “intensive” renewed offensive against Hamas in Gaza, and that Palestinians would be moved “for their own safety.”

“Last night we stayed up late in the cabinet and decided on an intensive operation in Gaza,” Netanyahu said.

A US-backed truce between Israel and Hamas ended in March, after only two months, when Israel resumed its attacks.

It was, Netanyahu added, seeming to tether a scapegoat to the decision, “the chief of staff’s recommendation to proceed, as he put it, toward the defeat of Hamas — and along the way, he believes this will also help us rescue the hostages.”

News of the plan triggered immediate protests outside Israel’s parliament by families of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. Few among them believe the plan has anything to do with a genuine desire to see their loved ones freed.




Israelis demonstrate in front of the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv on May 10, 2025, calling on the Netanyahu government to end the war and to secure the release of the hostages held since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas militants. (AFP) 

The chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces is retired Major-General Eyal Zamir, a favorite of the far-right members of Israel’s government, who was appointed only last month. His predecessor resigned, after taking responsibility for Israel’s military failings during the Hamas attack in October 2023.

“I’m pretty sure Zamir is praying that he will not have to execute this plan,” Ahron Bregman, a UK-based Israeli historian and senior teaching fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, and a former IDF officer, told Arab News. “He’s experienced enough to know that the operation might well kill the remaining Israeli hostages, or lead to a situation where the hostages are left to die in the tunnels without water or food, never to be found.

“As I have always maintained, Israel cannot destroy Hamas. Hamas, weak, bleeding and exhausted, will still be in the Gaza Strip when this hopeless war is over,” he added.

Israeli troops, who have evicted Palestinians from so-called security zones, already occupy about one-third of Gaza. If implemented, the new plan would see the seizure of the entire territory, with Gaza’s remaining two million Palestinians forced toward the south.

The UN has already expressed alarm at Israel’s plan to expand its operation in Gaza. “This will inevitably lead to countless more civilians killed and the further destruction of Gaza,” UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said on Monday. “What’s imperative now is an end to the violence, not more civilian deaths and destruction.”




Palestinians and Hamas fighters attend a funeral procession for 40 militants and civilians killed during the war with Israel, at the Shati camp for Palestinian refugees north of Gaza City on February 28, 2025. (AFP)

He added: “Gaza is, and must remain, an integral part of a future Palestinian state.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s security cabinet has voted to end distribution of aid by international NGOs and UN bodies, and to give the job to as-yet unnamed private companies. At the beginning of the month, the UN condemned Israel’s decision two months ago to halt humanitarian aid as a “cruel collective punishment” of the Palestinian population.

On Friday, Mike Huckabee, US ambassador to Israel, said a US-backed mechanism for distributing aid into Gaza should take effect soon but he gave few details. Israel and the US have both indicated in recent days that they were preparing to restore aid through mechanisms that would bypass Hamas.

“The Israeli military plan for Gaza is mainly aimed at satisfying the far-right elements in Netanyahu’s government,” said Bregman. “The new idea here is seizing chunks of the Gaza Strip and staying there, not getting out, as used to be the case.”

Right-wing, pro-settler members of the Israeli Cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr, “hope that staying inside will eventually lead to the resettling of the Gaza Strip by Jewish settlers who will resort to the tactics they employ on the West Bank, building settlements even if ‘official Israel’ opposes it,” he added. “They also trust far-right elements in the IDF — and the IDF is packed with them, especially in the ground forces — to turn a blind eye and enable the resettling of the Strip.” 

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But, he warned, “if ordered to implement the Gaza plan, Israeli troops must refuse to carry out the orders, lest they turn themselves into war criminals.”

On Tuesday, the day after Netanyahu’s announcement, Smotrich told a settlements conference in the West Bank that Gaza would soon be “totally destroyed,” and that its entire population would be “concentrated” in a narrow strip of land along the Egyptian border, which he euphemistically described as a “humanitarian zone.” 

Here, he added, ”they will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and British consul-general in Jerusalem, told Arab News: “There are clearly elements within the Israeli Cabinet who want to reoccupy some or even all of Gaza and there are others who want to establish settlements. What is unclear is how extensive or long-term such plans are — and whether they have Netanyahu’s full support.




Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and British consul-general in Jerusalem. (Supplied)

“He has clearly got his own tactical reasons for going along with some of the wilder claims: he needs to keep Smotrich and Ben Gvir inside the tent in order to maintain his government. He also probably genuinely believes — as, quite rightly, do most Israelis and a lot of outsiders — that Hamas cannot be allowed to retain political control of Gaza when the fighting stops.

“But he must also know that without a long-term political plan, this won’t work. Israel needs its neighbors to support it in its quest for security. And they will do so only if they have an answer to the question: How do we collectively make Israeli security compatible with Palestinian self-determination?”

Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said it remains unclear whether Israel’s threat of reoccupation is “a form of deterrence, a credible threat, or a last-ditch effort to (force) Hamas’ hand.”

However, “the fear of abandoning the Israeli hostages to a terrible fate is too much to bear for the majority of the Israeli polity, and this would inevitably have consequences for the current Israeli government,” he told Arab News.

President Trump’s upcoming visit may also change the script. “It is rumored that Trump is not on board with Israel’s escalation of the war in Gaza, especially ahead of his visit to the Gulf next week,” said Ozcelik. “The White House has been pressing for a deal to announce as a triumph and a hostage-release announcement would be a crucial win for (US special envoy to the Middle East) Steve Witkoff, but so far it has been elusive.”

Furthermore, “under the threat of a looming ‘forever’ Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, Saudi Arabia cannot be expected to agree to any deal with the US that is conditional on normalization with Israel. So, this, in a counterintuitive way, throws open a path for US-Saudi security cooperation,” Ozcelik added.

Doubts also surround the announcement by Witkoff that the US will set up a private foundation to deliver aid to Gaza, without involving the IDF or the US government. 

“The UN and key international humanitarian agencies have already rejected both the US and Israeli aid proposals, labelling them highly unworkable,” Kelly Petillo, program manager, MENA, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Arab News.

“And in the context of Israel’s campaign of starvation by stopping humanitarian aid since March and the targeting of civilians, hospitals, schools and so on, and of the new US administration’s rhetoric around the Gaza war and overall positioning, there are clearly doubts over the lack of good will by the delivering authorities, which means that Palestinians will be starved and eventually be forced to leave. 




Palestinians struggle to obtain donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 9, 2025. (AP Photo)




Ward Nar, left, reacts as she speaks with the photographer after returning empty-handed from attempting to receive donated food for her family, including her husband Mohammed Zaharna (center right) and their children at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 9, 2025. (AP Photo)

“This would amount to ethnic cleansing and also corresponds to weaponizing aid and using starvation as a weapon of war. It will mean that considerations over how many people will receive aid, or where distribution will occur, would be based on strategic or military considerations, rather than humanitarian ones.” 

Israel’s apparent ambition to force Palestinians out of Gaza can only further stoke regional tensions, added Petillo. 

“Regional actors, (most) of all Egypt and Jordan, have been very clear in their total rejection of any displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, and of the possibility of them receiving these refugees. In particular, Egypt has come up with a proposal to address aid and other issues as a way to counter this scenario. 




Displaced Palestinians gather amid the rubble of an UNRWA school-turned-shelter, heavily damaged in an overnight Israeli strike in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on May 10, 2025. (AFP)

“But the potential displacement of Palestinians in Gaza is nothing less than an existential threat for these countries which are also receiving so many other refugees — from Syria to Sudan and more. Syria and Lebanon have also been floated as possible destinations for Gazans, but this would be a major red line for these countries too.”

Echoing Petillo’s concerns, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said the Israeli plan to capture and indefinitely occupy Gaza “carries grave policy implications at multiple layers and levels for Israel, Palestinians and the region.”

Vakil said: “Beyond deepening an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis, it risks entrenching violent resistance, destabilizing neighboring states and triggering large-scale displacement that may be viewed internationally as ethnic cleansing — particularly in light of right-wing Israeli rhetoric and emboldening signals from past US policies.

“While Israel consistently sees Gaza as an existential security crisis that needs a military solution, it needs to take a step back and consider the larger and longer implications for its isolation, integration and values as a democracy,” she added. “Today, Arab states are watching Israel’s response in a fearful rather than (admiring) way.”




In this photo taken on August 8, 2024, displaced Palestinians leave an area in east Khan Yunis towards the west, after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of the city. (AFP)

Caroline Rose, director of the Strategic Blind Spots Portfolio at the Washington think-tank New Lines Institute, said the expansion in Israel’s war plan for the Gaza Strip “signals Netanyahu’s imperative to continue the conflict as a mechanism of political survival, despite the strain on Israel’s economy, IDF personnel and reserves, and reduced chances for a hostage agreement.”

She told Arab News: “It’s likely also that Netanyahu and his cabinet are seeking to expand operations as a negotiation tool with the US and its regional counterparts, particularly following disappointment with the US for exploring negotiation opportunities with Iran over their nuclear program.”

But “by design, this war plan will have serious implications for the civilian population of Gaza, as there are very few places left for them to go. It is a direct reflection of Netanyahu’s broader objective not only to eradicate Hamas, but also to seriously fragment the Palestinian cause and identity.”

In the past, said Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli lawyer whose NGO, Terrestrial Jerusalem, tracks developments in the city that threaten to spark violence or create humanitarian crises, “ethnic cleansing would have been unthinkable. But today the unthinkable has become thinkable and is unfolding in Gaza.” 

The Israeli government is “willing hostage to the messianic right” and is led by “a prime minister who will not only do anything to remain in power but is also a genuine believer in a world governed by war and brute force.”

More and more Israelis, he added, “are using the terms ‘genocide,’ ‘war crimes’ and ‘ethnic cleansing’ in decrying our actions in Gaza. Retired generals and former heads of the intelligence community are prominent among them.”

However, he said, “this trend is not visible in the partisan politics of the Knesset. With the exception of the Arab members, they remain spineless.”
 

 


How many hostages are left in Gaza?

Updated 56 min 39 sec ago
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How many hostages are left in Gaza?

  • 50 hostages remain in captivity
  • PM Netanyahu said Israel is committed to returning the remaining hostages even as it wages a new military campaign against Iran

Israel said Sunday that it has recovered the bodies of three more hostages taken in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that ignited the ongoing 20-month war in the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli military identified them as Yonatan Samerano, 21; Ofra Keidar, 70; and Shay Levinson, 19. All three were killed during the initial attack and their bodies were taken into Gaza. Kobi Samerano said in a Facebook post that his son’s remains were returned on what would have been Yonatan’s 23rd birthday.
The military did not provide details about the operation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is committed to returning the remaining hostages even as it wages a new military campaign against Iran.
Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 hostages in the Oct. 7 attack. More than 55,000 Palestinians in Gaza, mostly women and children, have been killed in the ensuing conflict, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants.
Here are details on the hostages:
Total hostages captured on Oct. 7, 2023: 251
Hostages taken before the Oct. 7 attack: 4, including 2 who entered Gaza in 2014 and 2015 and the bodies of 2 soldiers killed in the 2014 war
Hostages released in exchanges or other deals: 148, of whom 8 were dead
Bodies of hostages retrieved by Israeli forces: 49
Hostages rescued alive: 8
Hostages still in captivity: 50, of whom Israel believes 27 are dead. Netanyahu has said there are “doubts” about the fate of several more.
The hostages in captivity include four non-Israelis: 2 Thais and 1 Tanzanian who have been confirmed dead, and a Nepalese captive.


US, Israel crossed ‘big red line’, Iran FM says as heads to Moscow

Updated 28 min 3 sec ago
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US, Israel crossed ‘big red line’, Iran FM says as heads to Moscow

  • ‘Through this action, the United States has dealt a serious blow to international peace and security’
  • Iran’s top envoy says any demand to return to negotiations was ‘irrelevant’

ISTANBUL: The United States and Israel crossed a major red line in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s top diplomat warned Sunday, saying he was heading to Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

“They crossed a very big red line by attacking (Iran’s) nuclear facilities,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on the sidelines of a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Istanbul.

He was speaking just hours after President Donald Trump said US warplanes struck three Iranian nuclear sites, nine days into an Israeli bombing campaign targeting its nuclear facilities.

“The most dangerous one happened only last night,” Araghchi said, while acknowledging he did not know the full extent of the damage done in the strikes, including one at the underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordo.

“I still do not have exact information about the level of damages, but I don’t think it matters... Last night’s attack was a grave crime,” he said.

“Through this action, the United States has dealt a serious blow to international peace and security,” he said, vowing that Iran would defend itself “by all means necessary against... US military aggression.”

Araghchi said he would head to Moscow on Sunday and hold talks with Putin on Monday morning.

“I’m going to Moscow this afternoon” to hold “serious consultations with the Russian president tomorrow,” he said.

After the strikes, Trump said Iran “must now agree to end this war.”

But Araghchi said any demand to return to negotiations was “irrelevant.”

“The world must not forget that it was the United States which — in the midst of a process to forge a diplomatic outcome — betrayed diplomacy by supporting the genocidal Israeli regime’s launch of an illegal war of aggression on the Iranian nation,” he said.

“So we were in diplomacy, but we were attacked... They have proved that they are not men of diplomacy, and they only understand the language of threat and force.”

Turkiye, which was hosting the weekend OIC summit, warned that the strikes risked escalating the Iran-Israel conflict to a global level that could have “catastrophic” consequences.

“The ongoing developments could cause the regional conflict to escalate to a global level. We do not want this catastrophic scenario to come to life,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.


Iran missile barrage hits three areas in Israel, 23 hurt

Updated 22 June 2025
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Iran missile barrage hits three areas in Israel, 23 hurt

  • Public broadcaster KAN 11 showed images of a devastated building surrounded by mounds of rubble

JERUSALEM: Three areas of Israel including coastal hub Tel Aviv were hit Sunday morning during waves of Iranian missile attacks, with at least 23 people injured, according to rescue services and police.

Several buildings were heavily damaged in the Ramat Aviv area in Tel Aviv, with holes torn in the facades of apartment blocks.

“Houses here were hit very, very badly,” Tel Aviv mayor Ron Huldai told reporters at the scene. “Fortunately, one of them was slated for demolition and reconstruction, so there were no residents inside.

“Those who were in the shelter are all safe and well. The damage is very, very extensive, but in terms of human life, we are okay.”

The Israeli police said in a statement that they had been deployed to at least two other impact sites, one in Haifa in the north and another in Ness Ziona, south of Tel Aviv.

A public square in a residential area of Haifa was left strewn with rubble and surrounding shops and homes have been heavily damaged, AFP photos showed.

Eli Bin, the head of Israeli rescue service Magen David Adom, told reporters that a total of 23 people had been wounded nationwide in the attacks, with “two in moderate condition and the rest lightly injured.”

Two waves of missiles were launched at Israel from around 7:30 am (0430 GMT), the Israeli military said.

Sirens rang across the country, with air defenses activated shortly afterwards, causing loud explosions heard in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Israeli police reported “the fall of weapon fragments” in a northern area encompassing the port of Haifa, where local authorities said emergency services were heading to an “accident site.”

Reporting on missile strikes is subject to strict military censorship rules in Israel, but at least 50 impacts have been officially acknowledged nation-wide and 25 people have been killed since the war began with Iran on June 13, according to official figures.

Tel Aviv, the southern city of Beersheba and the northern port of Haifa have been the three areas most frequently targeted by Iran.

Israel’s sophisticated air defenses have intercepted more than 450 missiles along with around 1,000 drones, according to the latest figures from the Israeli military.


Additional US embassy staff left Iraq due to ‘regional tensions’: US official

Updated 22 June 2025
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Additional US embassy staff left Iraq due to ‘regional tensions’: US official

  • The departures were a continuation of a process that started last week
  • The embassy and the consulate remain operational

BAGHDAD: More personnel from the United States diplomatic mission departed Iraq over the weekend as part of ongoing efforts to reduce embassy staffing amid “regional tensions,” a US official said Sunday after Washington attacked Iranian nuclear sites.
“As part of our ongoing effort to streamline operations, additional personnel departed Iraq on June 21 and 22,” the US official told AFP.
The departures were a continuation of a process that started last week “out of an abundance of caution and due to heightened regional tensions,” he added.
The embassy and the consulate remain operational.
Earlier on Sunday, Washington joined Israel’s war with Tehran as President Donald Trump announced US strikes on Iran’s main nuclear sites.
Iran had threatened to target US military bases in the region if conflict breaks out.
Fears are growing in Iraq over a possible intervention by Iran-backed armed factions, who have threatened Washington’s interests in the region if it were to join Israel in its war against Iran.
Iraq, which has for years been navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.


Airlines keep avoiding Middle East airspace after US operation in Iran

Updated 22 June 2025
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Airlines keep avoiding Middle East airspace after US operation in Iran

  • Choose other routings such as north via the Caspian Sea or south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia
  • New flight paths result in higher fuel and crew costs and longer flight times

Airlines continued to avoid large parts of the Middle East on Sunday after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24, with traffic already skirting airspace in the region due to recent missile exchanges.

“Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, commercial traffic in the region is operating as it has since new airspace restrictions were put into place last week,” FlightRadar24 said on social media platform X.

Its website showed airlines were not flying in the airspace over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Israel. They have chosen other routings such as north via the Caspian Sea or south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia, even if it results in higher fuel and crew costs and longer flight times.

READ: Trump tells Iran ‘peace or tragedy’ in special address after main nuclear sites bombed

Missile and drone barrages in an expanding number of conflict zones globally represent a high risk to airline traffic.

Since Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13, carriers have suspended flights to destinations in the affected countries, though there have been some evacuation flights from neighboring nations and some bringing stranded Israelis home.

Israel’s two largest carriers, El Al Israel Airlines and Arkia, said on Sunday they were suspending rescue flights that allowed people to return to Israel until further notice. El Al said it would also extend its cancelation of scheduled flights through June 27.

Israel’s airports authority said the country’s airspace was closed for all flights, but land crossings with Egypt and Jordan remained open.

Japan’s foreign ministry said on Sunday it had evacuated 21 people, including 16 Japanese nationals, from Iran overland to Azerbaijan. It said it was the second such evacuation since Thursday and that it would conduct further evacuations if necessary.

New Zealand’s government said on Sunday it would send a Hercules military transport plane to the Middle East on standby to evacuate New Zealanders from the region.

It said in a statement that government personnel and a C-130J Hercules aircraft would leave Auckland on Monday. The plane would take some days to reach the region, it said.

The government was also in talks with commercial airlines to assess how they may be able to assist, it added.