Saudi Arabia posts $15.6bn budget deficit in Q1 with resilient non-oil growth

Despite the fiscal shortfall, the ministry noted that the quarterly figures remain consistent with the government’s 2025 budget plan. File
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Updated 05 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia posts $15.6bn budget deficit in Q1 with resilient non-oil growth

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia recorded a deficit of SR58.7 billion ($15.65 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, driven by declining oil revenues and increased spending to support Vision 2030 development initiatives, according to the Finance Ministry.

According to the quarterly budget performance report, total revenues reached SR263.61 billion, marking a 10.16 percent decline compared to the same period last year.

The drop is primarily attributed to reduced oil revenues, which fell 17.65 percent year on year to SR149.81 billion, driven by ongoing OPEC+ production cuts that curbed export volumes despite relatively steady global oil prices.

Oil income accounted for 56 percent of total government revenues, down from 62 percent in Q1 2024.

In contrast, non-oil revenues continued to grow modestly, rising 2.06 percent to SR113.81 billion, underpinned by structural economic reforms and the Kingdom’s diversification agenda under Vision 2030.

Taxation on goods and services remained the largest contributor to non-oil income, generating SR71.56 billion—up 2.37 percent year on year. Other non-oil revenue sources, including fees and investment returns, added SR25.41 billion, making up 22.3 percent of the non-oil total.

Total government expenditures in the quarter rose 5.39 percent year on year to SR322.32 billion. The increase reflects Saudi Arabia’s continued investment in strategic initiatives and priority development projects aligned with Vision 2030 goals.

Compensation for government employees remained the largest expenditure category, totaling SR146.09 billion—an annual increase of 6.24 percent—and accounting for 45.3 percent of total spending.

Expenditures on goods and services amounted to SR64.63 billion, or 20 percent of the quarterly total, while capital spending represented 8.6 percent. Other operational costs comprised 10.6 percent.

The first quarter deficit was entirely financed through debt instruments, pushing Saudi Arabia’s total public debt to SR1.33 trillion—up 19.08 percent from a year earlier.

Of this, 60 percent was sourced domestically, with the remainder attributed to external borrowing, in line with the Kingdom’s debt diversification strategy.

Despite the fiscal shortfall, the ministry noted that the quarterly figures remain consistent with the government’s 2025 budget plan. Revenues in the first quarter represent 22.3 percent of the full-year target, while expenditures account for 25 percent of the planned annual spend.

Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal outlook may receive a boost from higher oil output. OPEC+ recently announced plans to accelerate the unwinding of prior production cuts, including a June increase of 411,000 barrels per day. Combined with earlier boosts in April and May, the group plans to restore a total of 960,000 barrels per day—reversing 44 percent of the 2.2 million bpd reduction agreed upon in December 2024.


Oman inflation at 1.6%, latest figures show

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Oman inflation at 1.6%, latest figures show

RIYADH: Oman’s consumer price index rose by 1.6 percent in December compared with the same month a year earlier, reflecting moderate inflationary pressures at year’s end.

Average inflation for the January–December 2025 period increased by 1 percent, according to official data.

Figures released by the National Center for Statistics and Information showed that miscellaneous personal goods and services recorded the sharpest price increase, rising by 10 percent year on year. 

This was followed by transport at 2.8 percent, restaurants and hotels at 2.6 percent, and furniture, household equipment and routine maintenance at 2.4 percent, as well as education at 2.2 percent. 

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 1.1 percent, while clothing and footwear rose by 0.2 percent and health by 0.1 percent. In contrast, prices in the culture and recreation group declined by 0.1 percent. 

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, as well as tobacco and communications, remained unchanged over the period. 

Within the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, December prices compared with the same month of 2024 showed notable increases in fish and seafood at 6 percent and fruits at 4 percent. 

Sugar, jam, honey and confectionery rose by 3.5 percent, milk, cheese and eggs by 2.1 percent, and non-alcoholic beverages by 0.9 percent.

Meat prices increased by 0.8 percent, bread and cereals, oils and fats by 0.7 percent, and other unclassified food products by 0.4 percent, while vegetable prices fell by 5.8 percent. 

Regionally, Al Dhahirah governorate recorded the highest inflation rate at 2.5 percent by the end of December compared with a year earlier. 

Inflation also rose by 2.1 percent in Al Dakhiliyah, 1.7 percent in Muscat and Al Buraimi, and 1.5 percent in South Al Batinah. 

South Al Sharqiyah and Musandam each posted increases of 1.1 percent, while North Al Sharqiyah and North Al Batinah rose by 0.9 percent. Al Wusta and Dhofar recorded inflation of 0.8 percent. 

The report highlights the relative importance of expenditure groups within the consumer price index basket, underscoring why movements in certain categories have a greater impact on overall inflation.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels carry the largest weight at 31.7, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages at 20.6 and transport at 14.5.

Together, these three groups account for more than two-thirds of the CPI basket, meaning price stability in housing and utilities can significantly moderate headline inflation even when sharper increases are recorded in smaller-weight categories such as miscellaneous goods and services. 

The analysis also notes that around 56,640 individual price quotations were collected from 3,907 sources across the Sultanate during the reference period. 

In addition, rental data were gathered from a dedicated sample of 1,509 rented housing units, providing a detailed and representative measure of housing costs, which remain the most heavily weighted component of the inflation basket.