Oil Updates — prices decline as tariff uncertainty keeps investors on edge

Brent crude fell 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $70.05 a barrel by 7:45 a.m. Saudi time after settling up 90 cents on Friday.
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Updated 10 March 2025
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Oil Updates — prices decline as tariff uncertainty keeps investors on edge

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Monday as concern about the impact of US import tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand, as well as rising output from OPEC+ producers, cooled investor appetite for riskier assets.

Brent crude fell 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $70.05 a barrel by 7:45 a.m. Saudi time after settling up 90 cents on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.69 a barrel, down 35 cents, or 0.5 percent, after closing 68 cents higher in the previous trading session.

WTI declined for a seventh successive week, the longest losing streak since November 2023, while Brent was down for a third consecutive week after US President Donald Trump imposed then delayed tariffs on its key oil suppliers Canada and Mexico while raising taxes on Chinese goods. China retaliated against the US and Canada with tariffs on agricultural products.

“Tariff uncertainty is a key driver behind the weakness,” ING analysts said in a note, adding that oil price cuts from Saudi Arabia and deflationary signals from China also hurt sentiment.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore said other factors weighing on oil prices include concerns about US growth, the potential lifting of US sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ opting to increase output.

“Nonetheless, with much of the bad news likely factored in, we expect weekly support around $65/$62 to hold firm before a recovery back to $72.00,” he said in a client note in reference to the WTI price.

Oil prices clawed back some loss on Friday after Trump said the US would increase sanctions on Russia if the latter fails to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.

The US is also studying ways to ease sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if Russia agrees to end its war with Ukraine, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, said it will proceed with oil output hikes from April.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Friday said OPEC+ could reverse the decision in the event of market imbalance.

Adding to supply concerns, Saudi Arabia cut prices for crude grades it sells to Asia for the first time in three months in April.

Last week, Trump said he wanted to negotiate a deal with OPEC member Iran to prevent the latter seeking nuclear weapons — though Iran has said it is not seeking such weapons.

Trump is pursuing a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran under which the US on Saturday rescinded a waiver that allowed Iraq to pay Iran for electricity, a State Department spokesperson said.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday said his country will not be bullied into negotiations. 


Saudi Arabia’s industrial output rises 10.4% in November: GASTAT 

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Saudi Arabia’s industrial output rises 10.4% in November: GASTAT 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s industrial output rose at its fastest rate in months, climbing 10.4 percent year on year in November, supported by stronger manufacturing activity and higher oil production, official data showed. 

The Industrial Production Index increased to 114.4, up from 103.6 a year earlier, according to the General Authority for Statistics, though the index slipped 0.7 percent from October.

The latest figures highlight continued momentum in the Kingdom’s industrial sector as Saudi Arabia pursues economic diversification under its Vision 2030 agenda.

In its latest report, GASTAT stated: “Preliminary results indicate an increase of 10.4 percent in the IPI in November 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year, supported by the rise in mining and quarrying activity, manufacturing activity and water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities.”  

The sub-index of mining and quarrying activity increased by 12.6 percent year on year in November, supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise oil production to 10.1 million barrels per day, compared to 8.9 million bpd a year earlier. 

Manufacturing activity rose by 8.1 percent compared to November 2024, driven by a 14.5 percent increase in the production of coke and refined petroleum products. The manufacture of chemical products also recorded a 10.9 percent annual rise.

In contrast, the sub-index of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply declined by 4.3 percent year on year, while water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities rose by 10.2 percent. 

On a month-on-month basis, the overall IPI fell by 0.7 percent in November. 

Mining and quarrying activity rose by 0.5 percent from October, while manufacturing activity edged up by 0.3 percent.

However, electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply recorded a sharp monthly decline of 28.6 percent. Water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities fell by 3.1 percent over the same period. 

Overall, the index of oil activities advanced by 12.9 percent year on year in November, while non-oil activities increased by 4.4 percent. 

Compared to October, oil activities rose by 0.4 percent, while non-oil activities declined by 3.4 percent. 

The IPI measures changes in industrial output based on the International Standard Industrial Classification framework and covers mining, manufacturing, utilities, and waste management sectors.