DUBAI: Israel’s attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Tuesday showed.
The damage at the base in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel’s attack early Saturday, particularly as it took place in an area previously unacknowledged by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force within Iran’s theocracy that so far has remained silent about any possible damage it suffered from the assault. Iran only has identified Israeli attacks as taking place in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces — not in rural Semnan province where the base is located.
It also potentially further restrains the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran long has relied on that arsenal as it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Tehran’s Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.
Satellite photos earlier analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran also targeted by Israel shows sites there Iran uses in its ballistic missile manufacturing have been destroyed, further squeezing its program.
“We don’t know if Iranian production has been crippled as some people are saying or just damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. “We’ve seen enough imagery to show there’s an impact.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did the Israeli military.
Images show major building at Shahroud base destroyed
High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken for and analyzed by the AP showed the damage at the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, some 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s civilian space program.
The images showed a central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed, the shadow of its still-standing frame seen in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathered around the site, likely from officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the site’s main gate nearby.
Three small buildings just to the south of the main structure also appeared to be damaged. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar to the northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.
Iran has not acknowledged any attack at Shahroud. However, given the damage done to multiple structures, it suggested the Israeli attack included pinpoint strikes on the base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site not seen before the assault — further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as being the culprit.
“We can’t 100 percent exclude the possibility it’s something else, but it’s almost certain this building got damaged because of an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.
Given that the large building had been surrounded by earthen berms, that suggests it handled high explosives, said Hinz, who long has studied the site. That central site likely deals with solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.
Large boxes next to the building likely are missile motor crates as well, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran’s Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran has claimed is able to reach Mach 15 — which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both have been used in Iran’s attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.
The strike at Shahroud, coupled with others across the country, likely have put more pressure on Iran’s theocracy, particularly as it assesses the damage to its main weapon arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.
“Due to preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces, and timely reaction by the country’s air defense, limited damage was caused to some of the points hit,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed in a meeting with foreign diplomats Tuesday in Tehran. “Necessary measures were taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to operational state.”
US worries Guard’s space program a cover for missile research
A short distance from the destroyed buildings sits a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has conducted a series of successful missions putting satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program back in 2020.
The US intelligence community’s 2024 worldwide threat assessment said Iran’s continued development of satellite launch vehicles “would shorten the timeline to produce” an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly has warned.
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003. Parchin, one of the two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.
“Like with Iran’s nuclear program, you don’t build the system itself, you build all the technology under cover of a civilian program,” Hinz said.
Then, Iran could make the decision to pursue the weapon — or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West over international sanctions.
But for now, the satellite photos suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of Israel’s attack.
“The picture that is emerging is one of significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities, both of which would be intended to show the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further strikes if they attempt retaliation,” an analysis published Monday by two experts at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute said.
Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base
https://arab.news/54fps
Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base
- The damage at the base in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel’s attack early Saturday
- Attack potentially further restrains the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles
Lifting sanctions on Syria will prevent Daesh resurgence and strengthen the nation, experts say
- Conference in Washington discusses effects US policies are having on post-Assad Syria, and the continuing economic hardships in the country that could fuel terrorism
- Participants praise US President Donald Trump for taking the right steps to help the war-torn nation move towards recovery and stabilization
Syria faces serious challenges in the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime a year ago, including rebuilding its economy, lifting refugees and civilians out of poverty, and preventing a resurgence of Daesh terrorism.
But experts in two panel discussions during a conference at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, attended by Arab News, agreed that US President Donald Trump had so far taken all the right steps to help the war-torn nation move toward recovery and stabilization.
One of the discussions explored the effects American policies are having on the rebuilding of Syria, including the lifting of sanctions and efforts to attract outside investments and stabilize the economy. Moderated by the institute’s vice president for policy, Kenneth Pollack, the participants included retired ambassadors Robert Ford and Barbara Leaf, and Charles Lister, a resident fellow at the institute.
The other discussion focused on the continuing economic hardships in Syria that could fuel terrorism, including a resurgence of Daesh. Moderator Elizabeth Hagedorn, of Washington-based Middle East news website Al-Monitor, was joined by Mohammed Alaa Ghanem of the Syrian American Council, Celine Kasem of Syria Now, and Jay Salkini from the US-Syria Business Council.
“As we went into a transitional era, US diplomacy took a back step for a while as the Trump administration came into office,” Lister noted during the first panel discussion.
Everyone has been “super skeptical” of where the new government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, a former commander with the Syrian opposition forces, would lead the country, he said, but Trump had stepped up through policies and support.
“Frankly, I think in January none of us expected that President Donald Trump would be shaking hands with Ahmad Al-Sharaa” a few months later, he added.
“Despite the obvious challenges, this new (Syrian) government has to be engaged.”
The US had maintained strong ties to the Syrian Democratic Forces, and with Al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, Lister said, in the decade leading up to the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime on Dec. 8, 2024.
“Of course, we’ve had 10 years of a superb partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces, but they were a non-state actor not a sovereign government,” he continued.
“Now, we have a sovereign government that we could test, we can engage, and we can see where that goes. And in working through a sovereign government, there is no comparison that comes anywhere close to what we’ve seen on Syria.”
Lister praised Trump, saying: “I think a lot of that goes down to President Trump’s own kind of gut instinct of the way to do things.
“But there is a deeper, deeper government bench that has worked on this through Treasury and State and elsewhere. I think they all deserve credit for moving so rapidly and so boldly to give Syria a chance, as President Trump says.”
Ford said a key aspect of the process as Syria moves forward will be the removal of all sanctions imposed by the US against the Assad regime under the 2019 Caesar Act, an effort that is now underway in Congress.
He said Trump recognizes that the future of Syria and the wider Middle East lies in the hands of the Arab people, and has pursued policies based on “shared interests” including a “national security
strategy” to help the war-torn country shift away from extremism and violence toward a productive economy and safer environment for its people.
The Trump administration recognizes this reality, Ford added, and will “work on a practical level towards shared interests.”
However, he cautioned that “Syria is not out of the woods, by any stretch of the imagination” in terms of ensuring there is no resurgence of violence driven by desperate people burdened by the harsh economic realities in the country.
“If they can work with the Syrian government, and with more and more important regional actors as the United States retrenches — like Israel, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt; it’s a long list — it will become more important,” Ford said.
“There is still a way for the Americans to work with all of them, even if we don’t have big boots on the ground, or if we’re not providing billions of dollars.”
Nonetheless, “America’s voice will still be heard,” he added, thanks to the interest Trump is taking in Syria.
Adopted by Congress six years ago, toward the end of Trump’s first term as president, the Caesar Act imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Syria, including measures that targeted Assad and his family in an attempt to ensure his regime would be held accountable for war crimes committed under its reign. The act was named after a photographer who leaked images of torture taking place in Assad’s prisons.
Lister noted that the removal of the US sanctions has been progressing at “record-breaking speeds.”
In pre-taped opening remarks to the conference, which took place at the institute’s offices in Washington, Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of the US Central Command, said the Trump administration’s priority in Syria is the “aggressive and relentless pursuit” of Daesh, while working on the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces with the new Syrian government through American military coordination.
“Just to give an example, in the month of October, US forces advised, assisted and enabled Syrian partners during more than 20 operations against (Daesh), diminishing the terrorists’ attacks and export of violence around the world,” he said. “We’re also degrading their ability to regenerate.”
Cooper added that the issue of displacement camps in northeastern Syria must also be addressed. He said he has visited Al-Hawl camp four times since his first meeting with Al-Sharaa, “which reinforced my view of the need to accelerate repatriations.”
He continued: “The impact on displaced persons devastated by years of war and repression has been immense. As I mentioned in a late-September speech at the UN, continuing to repatriate displaced persons and detainees in Syria is both a humanitarian imperative and a strategic necessity.”
The US is working with Syrian forces to “supercharge” this effort, Cooper said, noting that the populations of Al-Hawl and Al-Roj camps have fallen from 70,000 to about 26,000.
The second panel discussion painted a very bleak picture of the economic challenges the Syrian people face, with the average income only $200-$300 a month, a level that the experts warned could push desperate people to violence just to survive.
The US-Syria Business Council’s Salkini said many major companies and factories that once operated in Syria had relocated to neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Iraq and Turkiye.
“We’re looking at about 50 percent-plus unemployment,” he said. “Let me give you statistics on the wages: A factory worker today, his salary is $100-$300 a month. A farmer makes $75-$200 a month in salary. A manager (or) a private in the military makes $250 a month.
“So you can imagine how these people are living on these low wages, and still have to buy their iPhone, their internet, pay for electricity.”
Many displaced people are unable to return to their former homes, the panelists said, because they were destroyed during the war and there is no accessible construction industry to rebuild them.
The capital, Damascus, faces many challenges they added, and the situation is even worse in the country.
