ISLAMABAD: As Pakistan gears up to host its first-ever Council of Heads of Government meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Islamabad, analysts warn that hopes for a breakthrough in ties with arch-rival India remain slim despite the participation of a delegation from the neighboring country.
The summit, scheduled for October 15-16, is considered significant as Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will attend the gathering, marking the first visit by a senior Indian official to Pakistan in nearly a decade. However, no bilateral talks are expected due to ongoing tensions over Kashmir. The last high-level interaction between the two nations took place during the SCO meeting in Goa in May 2023, where strained relations persisted.
“They are coming here not for Pakistan but for the SCO meeting, and given the past and the recent history of our relationship, I don’t think we can expect a significant softening, especially when it’s a minister-level official, not a leader of the country,” Dr. Nafees Zakaria, who served foreign ministry spokesman, told Arab News this week while responding a question about the Indian delegation.
The summit comes amid heightened security concerns, following the killing of two Chinese nationals in a suicide bombing in Karachi earlier this month, as well as a general rise in militant attacks across the country.
Asked about his expectations from the regional summit, Zakaria expressed a desire for the SCO to take concrete steps toward promoting peace in the region.
“It would be a significant milestone if these countries could agree on a security arrangement, making the security of this region a shared and collective responsibility,” he said.
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
Speaking to Arab News, Dr. Talat Shabbir, Director of the China-Pakistan Study Center at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, emphasized the significance of the summit, noting the participating states would focus on trade, connectivity and security.
He stressed that member nations need to set aside their territorial disputes in order to enhance business opportunities and strengthen regional economies for the benefit of their populations.
“We increase our business, we enhance our connectivity, we enhance our economy, and we have to think for the good of the general population of our country, of the region,” he said while also highlighting the political benefits for Pakistan in hosting the multilateral forum.
“There is propaganda against Pakistan that it is being isolated by the world powers, but [this meeting] will prove it’s not true,” he continued. “Had it been isolated, a number of heads of state would not have come to our country.”
Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former adviser to Pakistan’s finance ministry, said the upcoming SCO meeting could foster regional cooperation on economic issues while addressing shared challenges like security and trade barriers.
“The summit can help Pakistan bolster its economic standing by demonstrating its intent to integrate more deeply into regional and global markets,” he said. “Any enhanced trade agreements with SCO member states could open new markets for Pakistani goods.”
Another analyst, Shakeel Ramay, who writes on regional economic developments, agreed, noting the SCO presents multiple opportunities for Pakistan to tackle its economic and energy challenges.
“Pakistan can benefit from the vast market, as SCO member states constitute 40 percent of the world’s population and have a combined GDP of around $24 trillion,” he told Arab News. “They control 20 percent of the world’s oil and 44 percent of its gas reserves.”
He further added: “With the inclusion of Saudi Arabia and other aspirants, the market size, energy resource share and economic potential will be further enhanced.”
Pakistan has announced that the prime ministers of China and Russia, the vice president of Iran, India’s external affairs minister, along with other heads of government and representatives from multilateral organizations, will attend the regional summit.
To ensure the safety of approximately 900 delegates, stringent security measures have been implemented, with over 10,000 police, paramilitary and army personnel deployed.
Additionally, the federal government has declared public holidays in Islamabad and Rawalpindi on the two days of the summit.