What kind of future awaits Hamas after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran?

Mourners gather during a funeral procession for Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas, who was killed during a visit to Tehran, on July 31. (AFP/Getty Image)
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Updated 07 August 2024
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What kind of future awaits Hamas after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran?

  • Experts discuss whether the Palestinian group can retain its influence and rebuild after the killing of its political bureau chief
  • The killing of Hamas leaders may represent a tactical victory for Israel, but seems to have limited strategic value, says analyst

LONDON: It has been 14 years since Israeli agents carried out one of Mossad’s most audacious, controversial and, perhaps, pointless assassinations.

On Jan. 19, 2010, Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, the man responsible for procuring weapons for Hamas, was murdered in a hotel bedroom in Dubai.

It was a big operation, with many moving parts, involving almost 30 Mossad operatives who entered Dubai on false passports.

It ended with Al-Mabhouh being overpowered in his room at the Al-Bustan Rotana and given a fatal dose of suxamethonium chloride, a drug used in anesthetic cocktails.




People take part in a march called by Palestinian and Lebanese youth organizations in the southern Lebanese city of Saida, on August 5, 2024, to protest against the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh. (AFP)

To avoid leaving a tell-tale needle mark, the drug was administered with a device that used ultrasound to deliver it through the skin. The drug causes paralysis and, still conscious but with his lungs unable to function, Al-Mabhouh asphyxiated to death.

The assassins put him to bed and left, using a Mossad-developed device for putting hotel-door security chains in place from the outside of the room, hoping that Al-Mabhouh’s death would be attributed to natural causes.

It might have been, but for the vigilance of Dubai’s police chief. He suspected foul play and, by having the comings and goings through Dubai airport before and after the hit analyzed, and days of hotel security-camera footage examined in detail, put together a damning portfolio of evidence.

At the time, the killing was big news. Images of two Mossad agents posing as tennis players, emerging from an elevator behind Al-Mabhouh, appeared on televisions and newspapers around the world.

Today, however, for few outside Hamas or Mossad will the name Al-Mabhouh have any resonance. Certainly, his killing failed to have any appreciable impact on the flow of arms to the group.




Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) meeting with Palestinian Hamas movement leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 30, 2024. (AFP)

This week, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the Hamas political bureau, is also big news — as was the killing on July 13 of Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif.

But soon, says Ahron Bregman, a former officer in the Israeli army and a senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, the disruption caused by their deaths to the activities and ambitions of Hamas will disappear, as the ripples caused by a small pebble thrown into a large lake quickly vanish.

“The killing of Ismail Haniyeh will not change much as far as Hamas is concerned,” said Bregman, author of “The Fifty Years War: Israel and the Arabs” and the memoir “The Spy Who Fell to Earth,” an account of his part in the exposure of an Egyptian alleged double agent.

“Hamas is more than rifles, rockets and even leaders. Hamas is an idea.

“If Israel wants to defeat it, it must offer the Palestinians a better idea — say, a Palestinian state.

“If such an idea is not put forward, then Hamas will remain in place and rebuild itself for future battles with Israel.”

KEY HAMAS FIGURES

  • Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ Gaza leader, has just been named Ismail Haniyeh’s successor.
  • Khaled Meshaal, a founding member, has mostly operated from the relative safety of exile.
  • Khalil Al-Hayya, Doha-based deputy leader of Hamas, is said to have the backing of Iran.
  • Musa Abu Marzouk lived for 14 years in the US before becoming deputy chairman of Hamas’ political bureau.

Hamas is an Islamist militant group that spun off from the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1980s. It took over the Gaza Strip after defeating its rival political party, Fatah, in elections in 2006.

The sheer number of killings of key Hamas figures carried out by Israel over the past quarter-century, and the negligible impact of these killings on the organization’s capabilities or objectives, speaks of a policy being carried out despite a lack of success — or, perhaps, in accordance with a less obvious, and probably domestically focused agenda.

Killing high-profile Hamas targets, and perpetuating the war in the process, makes it harder for Israelis inclined toward peace to criticize or plot to remove their wartime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Certainly, it is not difficult for Netanyahu’s critics to see the killing of Haniyeh as a deliberate tactic to derail peace talks.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani put it succinctly on X, writing: “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”




A woman walks near a billboard displaying portraits of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif (R) and Ismail Haniyeh with the slogan “assassinated” reading in Hebrew, in Tel Aviv, on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

Israel’s list of assassinations and attempted assassinations of Hamas leaders is a long one, and the killings have not always been as subtly carried out as the necessarily low-key Mossad hit on Al-Mabhouh in Dubai.

One of the first high-profile targets to be killed was Salah Shehadeh, the leader of Hamas’ military wing, who was targeted in Gaza on July 23, 2002, by an Israeli F-16 that dropped a massive bomb on his home.

Such was the cost in collateral damage — 14 others died, including Shehadeh’s wife and nine children — that 27 Israeli Air Force pilots had a fit of conscience, denouncing such attacks as “illegal and immoral” and “a direct result of the ongoing occupation which is corrupting all of Israeli society.”

The soul-searching did not last long, however. The toll of senior Hamas leaders has continued more or less unabated ever since.

Those who have been killed include Ahmed Yassin, who founded Hamas in 1987. He died 20 years ago, on March 22, 2004, in a hail of missiles fired from Israeli helicopters as he returned home from morning prayers in Gaza.

He was succeeded by Abdel Aziz Al-Rantisi, who died in similar fashion just 26 days later.




Iranians take part in a funeral procession for late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, on August 1, 2024. (AFP)

Ahmed Al-Jabari, second-in-command of Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades, was targeted unsuccessfully five times before succumbing in Gaza City in November 2012 to a missile fired from a drone.

This year, unsurprisingly, has been a particularly busy one in terms of Hamas assassinations carried out by Israel. Hamas deputy and Haniyeh’s right-hand man Salah Al-Arouri was killed on Jan. 7 in an airstrike in Lebanon that also claimed the lives of several other senior Hamas commanders.

On March 11, Marwan Issa, deputy commander of Al-Qassam Brigades and Hamas No. 3, died in an airstrike in Gaza.

But none of these deaths — individually or taken together — has managed to turn Hamas from its path or hamper its ability to continue doggedly pursuing its aims militarily.

Haniyeh’s death is likely to have no greater immediate impact on Hamas’ capabilities than the assassinations that have gone before, said John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Iraq and a Middle East expert with the Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University.

But it might signal a change of strategy that bodes ill for any hopes of an immediate end to conflict.




Smoke billows from burning tires behind an Israeli army vehicle in Hebron on July 31, 2024, following a demonstration by Palestinians denouncing the killing of Haniyeh. (AFP)

“In the past, decapitation hasn’t worked — not with Hamas, nor with Hezbollah, nor Iran,” he said. “Or, at least, it has disrupted rather than interrupted.”

Israel, he added, “undoubtedly knows that. But it’s also thought for two decades that ‘mowing the grass’ is the best way to manage the conflict.”

That policy of simply keeping a lid on the problem “is now over — it collapsed on Oct. 7, 2023.

“So, the game now is destruction — of Hamas’ offensive capabilities and its ability to function as a significant political actor within the occupied Palestinian territories.

“That doesn’t mean killing the idea; that’s not possible. It means killing the capability. That’s why a ceasefire is a long way off.

“Spectacular assassinations are now part of a wider strategy of dismantling tunnels, command and control functions, logistics, and so on. That’s the only context in which they make sense.”

It is, however, a very dangerous game, with the killings of Haniyeh and Deif in Tehran and Beirut condemned by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last week as “a dangerous escalation.”




Yemenis wave flags and lift placards of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

Instead of Israel rampaging around the region on a killing spree — let alone assassinating Hamas’ Qatar-based negotiators, such as Haniyeh — “all efforts should instead be leading to a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all Israeli hostages, a massive increase of humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza and a return to calm in Lebanon and across the Blue Line,” said Guterres.

“This endless cycle,” he added, “needs to stop.”

In an interview with a British newspaper over the weekend, Amjad Iraqi, an associate fellow with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, warned that Israel’s increasingly audacious killings were indeed edging the region dangerously close to a regional war.

“People are not understanding the gravity of what this is,” he told the Independent.

“There is a kind of egotistical, unstable dance that all these actors are making with missiles and with people’s lives, while trying to explain it as calibrated responses.”

Only a ceasefire could cool things down, but as things stand, “we are at a very, very dangerous point.”




Muslims pray during the final prayers for Ismail Haniyeh at his funeral in the Qatari capital Doha on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

The reality of imminent escalation, said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, “means that the ‘day after’ and the path to statehood seems even farther away now, with all sides focusing on the military outcome of the here and now, at the expense of immense civilian suffering and a viable political solution.”

For its part, Hamas, “to project resilience and the resolve of its leadership despite the assassination of Haniyeh, is trying to pivot quickly to appoint a new political bureau chief.”

A consultative process is under way “and, until a decision is made, such as the appointment of Khaled Mashal, for example, ceasefire negotiations cannot realistically recommence.”

As it has done many times before, in other words, Hamas will quickly grow a new limb to replace one that has been amputated.

But “a more urgent obstacle to restarting talks is that Hamas cannot be authorized to re-enter a diplomatic phase until Iran declares that the regime and its proxies have sufficiently retaliated against Israel for the series of high-profile assassinations, with much speculation around when that might happen.”




Mourners offer their condolences to senior Hamas official Khaled Mashaal (L) during the funeral of Ismail Haniyeh, in the Qatari capital Doha on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

The killing of Haniyeh has, she believes, “cornered Hamas into a dilemma that will determine how the organization evolves over time.

“On the one hand, the loss of a recognizable political leader will trigger radicalization among some Hamas supporters and embolden hardliners among the military faction such as Yahya Sinwar, his brother and their inner circle.

“On the other, with Hamas fighters suffering losses inside Gaza and its military infrastructure downgraded, Hamas will be looking for a lull in the fighting to recoup and plan ahead.

“But for Hamas, this is a long game, and it is far from over — key figures inside and outside Gaza will continue to struggle to consolidate Hamas and its victory narrative and position it for a role in post-war Gaza.”




An Indonesian protester holds up a placard with the image of Ismail Haniyeh during a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Surabaya on August 6, 2024. (AFP)

Ahron Bregman agrees that the killing of Haniyeh “might lead to a regional war in which Iran and Hezbollah could become involved. If the latter happens, it will play straight into the hands of Hamas’ leader, Yahya Sinwar, whose dream has always been that his Oct. 7 attack on Israel triggers a regional war.”

The assassination will also “put on ice any hostage deal, as both leaders, Netanyahu and Sinwar, are not interested in such a deal at the moment.

“For Netanyahu, a deal could spell the end of his coalition government. As for Sinwar, he will wait to see if the assassination at the heart of Tehran, which humiliated Iran, could lead to a regional war.”




Yahia Sinwar addresses supporters during a rally in Gaza City, on April 14, 2023. (AFP)

It is true, Bregman added, that “in recent months, Israel has managed to assassinate many of the Hamas leaders. Sinwar is quite on his own now, and I’m sure he’s got very few of the old guard to consult with.

“But Hamas is bigger and larger than any leader or leaders. When this war is over, there will still be Hamas — battered, leaner, but still standing and able to send rockets into Israel.

“The assassinations are tactical victories for Israel, but there is nothing strategic in it, not even in the possible killing of Sinwar himself.”




Members of the Palestinian Joint Action Committee sit during a symbolic funeral for Ismail Haniyeh, in Beirut, on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

Ultimately, the cost of Israel’s campaign of assassinations could be borne by Israelis and Palestinians alike.

The details of the operation to kill Al-Mabhouh in Dubai in 2010 emerged in the book “Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations,” published by Israeli historian and investigative journalist Ronen Bergman in 2018.

Bergman concluded that, because Israel’s intelligence community had always “provided Israel’s leaders sooner or later with operational responses to every focused problem they were asked to solve,” that very success had “fostered the illusion among most of the nation’s leaders that covert operations could be a strategic and not just a tactical tool — that they could be used in place of real diplomacy to end the geographic, ethnic, religious, and national disputes in which Israel is mired.”

As a result, Israel’s leaders “have elevated and sanctified the tactical method of combating terror and existential threats at the expense of the true vision, statesmanship, and genuine desire to reach a political solution that is necessary for peace to be attained.”

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Iran warns Israel not to attack its infrastructure

Updated 09 October 2024
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Iran warns Israel not to attack its infrastructure

  • Israel said it was preparing a response to Iran’s October 1 missile attack on its arch-enemy
  • On Friday US President Joe Biden cautioned Israel against attacking oil installations in Iran

TEHRAN: Iran warned Israel on Tuesday against attacking any of its infrastructure amid fears of a possible Israeli assault on oil or nuclear sites following Iran’s missile barrage last week.
“Any attack against infrastructure in Iran will provoke an even stronger response,” state television quoted Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as saying.
He spoke after Israel said it was preparing a response to Iran’s October 1 missile attack on its arch-enemy, its second on the country in six months.
On Monday, an official statement quoted Araghchi as saying Iran did not seek war in the region.
On Friday US President Joe Biden cautioned Israel against attacking oil installations in Iran, one of the world’s top 10 producers of crude.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Rassul Sanairad warned Israel on Sunday any attack on nuclear or energy sites would cross a “red line.”
The Fars news agency quoted him as saying following the Israeli threat: “Some political leaders have spoken of a possible change in Iran’s nuclear policy.”
In 2022, after an official said Iran had the technical capability to produce a nuclear weapon, the country stressed there had been no change in its nuclear ambitions.
Last year Iran slowed the pace of its uranium enrichment, but then in late 2023 accelerated the production of 60 percent enriched uranium, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Enrichment levels of around 90 percent are required for military use.
Iran has always denied any ambition to develop a nuclear weapons capability, insisting its activities are entirely peaceful.
Any attack on Iranian nuclear sites “would have an impact on the kind of response by Iran,” General Sanairad said.
Tehran says its attack on Israel, when some 200 missiles were fired, was a response to the death in a Beirut air strike of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese movement Hezbollah, and of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Iran blamed Israel for Haniyeh’s death, but Israel has not commented.


Hezbollah steps up rocket fire as Israel sends more troops into Lebanon

Updated 09 October 2024
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Hezbollah steps up rocket fire as Israel sends more troops into Lebanon

  • In a follow-up to Kassem’s speech, the group issued a statement saying it will “not abandon our support and backing for our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip”

BEIRUT: Hezbollah fired another barrage of rockets into Israel on Tuesday, and the militant group’s acting leader vowed to keep up pressure that has forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military said it sent more ground troops into southern Lebanon and that a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in an airstrike.
Dozens of rockets fired by Hezbollah were aimed as far south as Haifa, and the Israeli government warned residents north of the coastal city to limit activities, prompting the closure of more schools. The Israeli military said Hezbollah launched about 180 rockets across the border.
Sheikh Naim Kassem, Hezbollah’s acting leader, said its military capabilities remain intact after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon, and attacks that killed its top commanders in a matter of days. He said Israeli forces have not been able to advance since launching a ground incursion into Lebanon last week.
Kassem, speaking by video from an undisclosed location, said Hezbollah will name a new leader to succeed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, “but the circumstances are difficult because of the war.”
In a statement addressed to the people of Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Hezbollah “weaker than it has been for many, many years.” He added: “We took out thousands of terrorists, including Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of his replacement,” but without naming them.
Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month. Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah who oversees the group’s political affairs, was generally regarded as the heir apparent. But no announcement has been made on a successor, and Safieddine has not appeared in public or made any public statements since Nasrallah’s death.
Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman, said Tuesday night that Israel was still checking the status of Safieddine, and accused Hezbollah of trying to hide details of a recent strike in Beirut on a location where he was believed to have been.
The Israeli military said it has dismantled militant infrastructure along the border and killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters.
There was no way to confirm battlefield claims made by either side.
The Israeli military said it deployed a fourth division in southern Lebanon and that operations have expanded to the west, but its focus still appears to be a narrow strip along the border.
A day after marking a year of war in Gaza, Israeli forces fought heavy battles Tuesday with Palestinian militants in the north, where residents have been ordered to evacuate.
Hezbollah says naming a new leader ‘difficult’
Hezbollah’s acting leader said Hezbollah backs efforts by Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire. Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, has been seen as the main interlocutor between the militant group and the United States, and has been trying to broker a ceasefire.
In a follow-up to Kassem’s speech, the group issued a statement saying it will “not abandon our support and backing for our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”
The statement came in apparent response to reports that interpreted Kassem’s speech as suggesting the group would agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon without a ceasefire in Gaza, contrary to Hezbollah’s public stance that the two fronts are linked.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel the day after Hamas’ surprise attack into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 ignited the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allied with Iran. Most rockets have been intercepted or fallen in open areas.
The Israeli army on Tuesday said about 180 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel, with most intercepted. A 70-year-old woman was wounded by shrapnel, and Israeli media aired footage of what appeared to be minor damage to buildings near Haifa.
The military said late Tuesday that Israeli strikes over the past 24 hours had killed 50 Hezbollah fighters, including six whom it described as senior commanders. Israel says it will keep fighting until tens of thousands of displaced Israeli citizens can return to their homes in the north.
More than 1,300 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced since the fighting escalated in mid-September.
Israel’s response to Iran’s missile barrage
Last week, Iran launched its own barrage of some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, in what it said was a response to the killing of Nasrallah, along with an Iranian general who was with him at the time, and Ismail Haniyeh, the top leader of Hamas killed in an explosion in Tehran in July.
Israel has vowed to respond to the missile attack, without saying when or how.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was to meet in Washington with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, but Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said Tuesday the meeting, expected for the following day, had been postponed. Asked for the reason, she referred reporters to Israeli officials. Netanyahu’s office had no immediate comment.
The Biden administration says it is opposed to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could further escalate regional tensions.
Heavy fighting and evacuation orders in Gaza
Heavy fighting raged in northern Gaza, the first target of Israel’s ground offensive in the war. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble, and Israeli troops have largely isolated the region — which includes Gaza City — since last October, when up to a million people fled south following Israeli evacuation orders.
Gaza’s Health Ministry said the Israeli military called for three hospitals in northern Gaza — Kamal Adwan, Awda and the Indonesian Hospital — to evacuate patients and medical staff.
“The military contacted me directly and said in a threatening way, ‘tomorrow all the patients and staff in Kamal Adwan must be removed or they will be exposed to danger.’ Clearly, it’s a clear threat,” said the hospital’s director, Hossam Abu Safiya.
“We have told all sides that the north is still crowded with people ... and we have the right to provide them services,” Abu Safiya said. “We are staying firm and will continue to provide services no matter what the cost.”
Israeli forces are also battling Hamas militants in Jabaliya, a densely populated urban refugee camp dating back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation. Palestinian residents said Israeli warplanes and artillery were pounding Jabaliya as well as Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya.
Earlier, Kamal Adwan Hospital said at least 15 people, including two women, four children and four people trying to retrieve bodies, were killed Tuesday in the fighting in Jabaliya.
“The situation is extremely difficult. The bombing and explosions haven’t stopped,” said Jabaliya resident Mahmoud Abu Shehatah. “It’s like the first days of the war.”
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed around 42,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities. They do not say how many were fighters, but say women and children make up more than half of all fatalities.
 

 


With hospitals full in Lebanon, family flees to give birth in Iraq

Updated 09 October 2024
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With hospitals full in Lebanon, family flees to give birth in Iraq

NAJAF: Lubana Ismail had just fled her village in southern Lebanon with her husband and two children when she went into labor. She had swollen veins in her uterus and needed immediate medical supervision to give birth safely.
They searched for a hospital in Beirut or Sidon that would admit her, but all were full of the dead and wounded.
“No hospital accepted me. We were turned away everywhere until my father suggested we go to Iraq,” she recounted.
So they boarded a flight and flew to Najaf. It was there, in a Shiite pilgrimage city in a former war zone 1,000 km (600 miles) from home, that Lubana finally gave birth to baby Zahraa, healthy and safe.
The proud father, Fouad Youssef, recounted the perils of their evacuation.
“At first, we went to Tyre, but a strike hit directly next to us. We decided to go to Beirut, thinking it would be safer, but even on the way, a strike hit near us,” he said.
“During our two days of displacement, I tried to get my wife into a hospital because her labor was difficult. But due to the high number of injuries and martyrs, there were no vacancies.”
More than a million Lebanese have fled their homes since Israel intensified its airstrikes and launched a ground campaign in southern Lebanon against the Hezbollah movement which has been striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Imran Riza, UN humanitarian coordinator, said the pace of displacement since Sept. 23 had exceeded worst case scenarios, and too much damage was being done to civilian infrastructure.
Najaf, which accepts millions of Shiite pilgrims a year, is accustomed to handling the emergency medical needs of foreigners, and Iraqis have endured almost two decades of war at home. But receiving refugees from Lebanon is unexpected. Iraq’s interior ministry says around 5,700 Lebanese have arrived so far.
Lubana and Fouad are grateful to have found a safe place to bring their family and give birth to their daughter. But they have no idea what will come next.
“We are afraid the war will go on for a long time. What will happen to our children? We were preparing them for school, but now there is no education. Are we going to stay here? Are we leaving? Are we going back to our country?” pondered Youssef, watching news of the destruction in Lebanon on his mobile screen.


As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

Updated 09 October 2024
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As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe

  • Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground
  • “Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem

JERUSALEM: Israel has promised to retaliate for Iran’s massive missile attack last week. How it does so involves great risk, and could have major repercussions for the archenemies, the Middle East and the world.
Israel’s options range from symbolic strikes on military targets to crippling attacks on Iran’s vital oil industry or its secretive and heavily fortified nuclear program.
The intensity and timing of any retaliatory strike was expected to top the agenda of a planned meeting this week at the Pentagon between Israel’s defense minister and his US counterpart. But late Tuesday, the Pentagon said the meeting was abruptly postponed.
In a sign of possible disagreement over the right approach, President Joe Biden has already urged Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear program and discouraged it from hitting the oil industry.

A view of a road sign directing towards the city of Dimona, close to the nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert. (AFP file photo)

The Associated Press spoke to two former Israeli prime ministers and other experts to explore Israel’s options. There is broad consensus that Israel must strike back, but deep disagreement over the best way to do so.
“The question is not whether Israel will retaliate or respond,” former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told AP. “The question is which way.”
Why is Israel threatening Iran?
Israel and Iran have been involved in a bitter shadow war for years — primarily through Israel’s battles against Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. Israel also has been suspected of killing Iranian nuclear scientists and carrying out attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, but it rarely acknowledges involvement.
Direct clashes have been rare. But things changed after Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel the following day. Both groups receive support from Iran.
In April, Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles toward Israel after accusing it of killing two Iranian generals in a diplomatic compound in Syria. Nearly all of the missiles malfunctioned or were intercepted, and Israel responded with a limited strike that signaled it did not want any further escalation.
After last week’s Iranian attack, Israel signaled its next response would be different.
Iran said the barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles was to avenge a series of Israeli strikes against its close allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s longtime leader. Although the missiles caused little damage or casualties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a “big mistake and it will pay for it.” Members of his hard-line coalition have called for a harsh response.
What options does Israel have?
Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground. Israel accuses Iran of developing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies.
Striking anywhere in Iran is a logistical challenge for Israel. Warplanes would need to fly over 1,500 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) to their target, requiring a complicated midair refueling operation, potentially over hostile skies. Any strike would also mean confronting Iran’s Russian-made air-defense systems.
“Remember that Iran is 1,500, 1,600 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) away from Israel, and you have countries in between — Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. Some are friends. Some are foes,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a former adviser on Iranian affairs on Israel’s National Security Council.
“You don’t want to embarrass your friends. You don’t want to get hostile fire from other countries,” he said.
Olmert, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2009, said Israel is more than capable of coping with these challenges.
“We have the capabilities,” he said. “I’m not certain it would be wise and responsible to expose them.”
Even if Israel has the means, there are diplomatic considerations. A strike on the oil sector, Iran’s economic backbone, or on the nuclear program would almost certainly guarantee an Iranian response and raise the risk of further escalation.
Such strikes could rattle global oil markets and shake the US economy on the eve of a presidential election. They also could risk Iranian retaliation not only against Israel, but against American troops stationed in the region or Gulf Arab countries aligned with the West.
“Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
So how will Israel respond?
Former leaders are divided on what path Israel should choose.
Olmert said a strike on multiple military targets, spread across Iran’s vast territory, would be more than enough to send a message. The goal, he said, is to show that Israel can strike anywhere and anytime.
“That’s precisely what deterrence is all about,” he said.
Olmert said hitting Iran’s oil sector would be an unnecessary escalation that invites a response, and that striking the nuclear program is not worth the risk. Not only would it trigger Iranian retaliation, but the odds of success are uncertain, he said.
“Trying to attack the nuclear program will be a mistake,” he said.
Another former prime minister, Yair Lapid, believes Israel should strike Iran’s oil industry infrastructure.
“That is the most painful target for the Iranian regime,” Lapid, who served as premier in 2022, said in a written response to a question from The Associated Press.
“Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel must be met with a forceful response,” he said, adding that Iran must understand “there is a high cost to its regional aggression.”
In an interview with the Israeli news site Ynet, Lapid said a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities should only be done as part of an international coalition in coordination with the United States.
Lapid’s predecessor as prime minister and former governing partner, Naftali Bennett, takes an even tougher line, saying now is the time for Israel to bomb the Iranian nuclear project.
Bennett said in a video posted on social media Tuesday that Iran and its allies have been weakened, and that Israel has a rare chance to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s leadership, economy and nuclear program.
“We must not settle for Iranian military bases or noisy-yet-meaningless actions that are meant only to deliver a message,” Bennett said. “The time for messages is over.”
Olmert, however, said he hopes cooler heads will prevail.
“What do we want to achieve and how far do we want to go and how arrogant do we want to be?” he said. His advice: “Try to be smart.”

 


Qatar launches ‘air bridge’ for aid to war-struck Lebanon

Updated 08 October 2024
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Qatar launches ‘air bridge’ for aid to war-struck Lebanon

  • Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the Qatari aid “will help cover shortages of medical, relief and support supplies” and will be “a vital push” for the hundreds of thousands of displaced and injured people

BEIRUT, Lebanon: Doha launched an “air bridge” to transport medical supplies and food aid to Lebanon, a Qatari minister said in Beirut on Tuesday, more than two weeks into intense Israeli strikes on the country.
“Today we launched the air bridge with consecutive planes carrying food, shelter materials and medical supplies,” said Qatar’s Minister of State for International Cooperation Lolwah Al-Khater from a public hospital in Beirut.
She said Doha was working “on medium and long-term plans to contain this humanitarian crisis.”
Since September 23, Israel has launched an intense air campaign mainly targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, killing more than 1,150 people and displacing upwards of a million people.
Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the Qatari aid “will help cover shortages of medical, relief and support supplies” and will be “a vital push” for the hundreds of thousands of displaced and injured people.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati also met the Qatari minister.
A French plane carrying medical aid also landed in Beirut Tuesday, one of several planeloads of aid that arrived at Lebanon’s only international airport since the escalation began.
The United Arab Emirates, Turkiye, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan and Romania are also among the countries that have sent aid to Lebanon.