BEIRUT: The militant Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift and smooth replacement of fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in the Iranian capital early Wednesday comes at a time when Hamas is under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started nearly 10 months ago following the group’s attack on southern Israel.
“We are not discussing this matter now,” a Hamas official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group’s political bureau until his death. His deputy was Saleh Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri’s post remained empty since his death.
The group’s Shoura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The council’s membership is kept secret but represents regional chapters of the group, in Gaza, the West Bank and diaspora and those imprisoned.
One of Haniyeh’s deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group’s chief executive officer because of the important role he plays in managing the group’s finances, and with that, his good offices with Iran.
Hani Al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran Hamas official and former leader, and Khalil Al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
“It will not be easy,” said Al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies.
Hamas’ new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the military option, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises — an unlikely option at this stage.
Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him. But Mashaal has good relations with Turkiye and Qatar and is considered a more moderate figure who headed the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for the killing of Haniyeh.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figu re leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal’s leadership.
Al-Hayya is considered close to Haniyeh, a prominent leader living in exile and originally from Gaza, with important international connections and good relations with the military wing as well as with Iran and Türkiye.
After years of cold relations with the Iran-led “axis of resistance” over Hamas’s backing the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during Syria’s conflict that began in March 2011, Hamas began mending its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.
Al-Hayya headed a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met Assad. Al-Hayya also has good relations with Iran, Türkiye and Hezbollah.
“He is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides didn’t see his leadership as problematic,” Al-Masri said.
The role of the group’s leader is important in maintaining relations with Hamas’ allies outside the Palestinian territories and the choice is likely to be influenced by the group’s choices in the coming days.
Al-Masri said any choice will have to be temporary until elections in the political bureau which were supposed to take place this year but have been derailed by the war.
The Hamas leadership meeting may also be complicated by efforts to reach Sinwar, who remains influential and will be consulted on the choice.
With ceasefire talks faltering, Israel’s strategy so far appeared to have left the group with a few options now: surrender or continue war.
A third possible contender, said Al-Masri, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief, and is considered close to Mashaal.
The war in Gaza started on Oct.7 after the Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 people. The group also took 250 others hostage. Israel’s retaliatory operation has obliterated entire neighborhoods in Gaza and forced some 80 percent of the population to flee their homes. Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh’s replacement
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The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh’s replacement
- The group’s Shoura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor
- Hani Al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal and Khalil Al-Hayya
Ceasefire with Kurdish-led force extended for another 15 days, Syrian army says
- The defense ministry said the extension was in support of an operation by US forces to transfer accused Daesh militants to Iraq
- The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces confirmed the ceasefire extension
RAQQA, Syria: Hours after the expiration of a four-day truce between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led fighters Saturday, Syria’s defense ministry announced the ceasefire had been extended by another 15 days.
The defense ministry said in a statement that the extension was in support of an operation by US forces to transfer accused Daesh militants who had been held in prisons in northeastern Syria to detention centers in Iraq.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces confirmed the ceasefire extension.
“Our forces affirm their commitment to the agreement and their dedication to respecting it, which contributes to de-escalation, the protection of civilians, and the creation of the necessary conditions for stability,” the group said in a statement.
Over the past three weeks, there have been intense clashes between government forces and the SDF, in which the SDF lost large parts of the area they once controlled.
Earlier in the day, the Kurdish-led force called on the international community to prevent any escalation.
The end of the truce came as government forces have been sending reinforcements to Syria’s northeast.
Syria’s interim government signed an agreement last March with the SDF for it to hand over territory and to eventually merge its fighters with government forces. In early January, a new round of talks failed to make progress over the merger, leading to renewed fighting between the two sides.
A new version of the accord was signed last weekend, and a four-day ceasefire was declared Tuesday. Part of the new deal is that SDF members will have to merge into the army and police forces as individuals.
The SDF said in a statement Saturday that military buildups and logistical movements by government forces have been observed, “clearly indicating an intent to escalate and push the region toward a new confrontation.” The SDF said it will continue to abide by the truce.
On Saturday, state TV said authorities on Saturday released 126 boys under the age of 18 who were held at the Al-Aqtan prison near the northern city of Raqqa that was taken by government forces Friday. The teenagers were taken to the city of Raqqa where they were handed over to their families, the TV station said.
The prison is also home to some of the 9,000 members of the Daesh group who are held in northeastern Syria. Most of them remain held in jails run by the SDF. Government forces have so far taken control of two prisons while the rest are still run by the SDF.
Earlier this week, the US military said that some 7,000 Daesh detainees will be transferred to detention centers in neighboring Iraq.
On Wednesday, the US military said that 150 prisoners have been taken to Iraq.
