BEIRUT: The militant Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift and smooth replacement of fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in the Iranian capital early Wednesday comes at a time when Hamas is under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started nearly 10 months ago following the group’s attack on southern Israel.
“We are not discussing this matter now,” a Hamas official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group’s political bureau until his death. His deputy was Saleh Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri’s post remained empty since his death.
The group’s Shoura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The council’s membership is kept secret but represents regional chapters of the group, in Gaza, the West Bank and diaspora and those imprisoned.
One of Haniyeh’s deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group’s chief executive officer because of the important role he plays in managing the group’s finances, and with that, his good offices with Iran.
Hani Al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran Hamas official and former leader, and Khalil Al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
“It will not be easy,” said Al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies.
Hamas’ new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the military option, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises — an unlikely option at this stage.
Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him. But Mashaal has good relations with Turkiye and Qatar and is considered a more moderate figure who headed the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for the killing of Haniyeh.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figu re leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal’s leadership.
Al-Hayya is considered close to Haniyeh, a prominent leader living in exile and originally from Gaza, with important international connections and good relations with the military wing as well as with Iran and Türkiye.
After years of cold relations with the Iran-led “axis of resistance” over Hamas’s backing the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during Syria’s conflict that began in March 2011, Hamas began mending its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.
Al-Hayya headed a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met Assad. Al-Hayya also has good relations with Iran, Türkiye and Hezbollah.
“He is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides didn’t see his leadership as problematic,” Al-Masri said.
The role of the group’s leader is important in maintaining relations with Hamas’ allies outside the Palestinian territories and the choice is likely to be influenced by the group’s choices in the coming days.
Al-Masri said any choice will have to be temporary until elections in the political bureau which were supposed to take place this year but have been derailed by the war.
The Hamas leadership meeting may also be complicated by efforts to reach Sinwar, who remains influential and will be consulted on the choice.
With ceasefire talks faltering, Israel’s strategy so far appeared to have left the group with a few options now: surrender or continue war.
A third possible contender, said Al-Masri, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief, and is considered close to Mashaal.
The war in Gaza started on Oct.7 after the Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 people. The group also took 250 others hostage. Israel’s retaliatory operation has obliterated entire neighborhoods in Gaza and forced some 80 percent of the population to flee their homes. Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh’s replacement
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The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh’s replacement
- The group’s Shoura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor
- Hani Al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal and Khalil Al-Hayya
Syria’s Sharaa calls for united efforts to rebuild a year after Assad’s ouster
- Sharaa’s Islamist-led alliance launched a lightning offensive in late November last year, taking the capital Damascus on December 8
DAMASCUS: President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Monday urged Syrians to work together to rebuild their country, still marred by insecurity and divisions, as they marked a year since the ousting of longtime ruler Bashar Assad.
The atmosphere in Damascus was jubilant as thousands of people took to the streets of the capital, AFP correspondents said, after mosques in the Old City began the day broadcasting celebratory prayers at dawn.
“What happened over the past year seems like a miracle,” said Iyad Burghol, 44, a doctor, citing developments including a warm welcome in Washington by President Donald Trump for Sharaa, a former jihadist who once had a US bounty on his head.
“People are demanding electricity, lower prices and higher salaries” after years of war and economic crisis, Burghol said.
“But the most important thing to me is civil peace, security and safety,” he added, taking a photo of people carrying a huge Syrian flag and sending it to his friends abroad.
Sharaa’s Islamist-led alliance launched a lightning offensive in late November last year, taking the capital Damascus on December 8 after nearly 14 years of war and putting an end to more than five decades of the Assad family’s iron-fisted rule.
Since then Sharaa has managed to restore Syria’s international standing and has won sanctions relief, but he faces major challenges in guaranteeing security, rebuilding crumbling institutions, regaining Syrians’ trust and keeping his fractured country united.
“The current phase requires the unification of efforts by all citizens to build a strong Syria, consolidate its stability, safeguard its sovereignty, and achieve a future befitting the sacrifices of its people,” Sharaa said following dawn prayers at Damascus’s famous Umayyad Mosque.
He was wearing military garb as he did when he entered the capital a year ago.
‘Heal deep divisions’
As part of the celebrations in Damascus, hundreds of military personnel marched down a major thoroughfare as helicopters flew overhead and people lined the streets to watch.
Sharaa and several ministers were in attendance, state media reported.
Monday’s events, including an expected speech by Sharaa, are the culmination of celebrations that began last month as Syrians began marking the start of last year’s lightning offensive.
Multi-confessional Syria’s fragile transition has been shaken this year by sectarian bloodshed in the country’s Alawite and Druze minority heartlands, alongside ongoing Israeli military operations.
In a statement, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that “what lies ahead is far more than a political transition; it is the chance to rebuild shattered communities and heal deep divisions.”
“It is an opportunity to forge a nation where every Syrian — regardless of ethnicity, religion, gender or political affiliation — can live securely, equally, and with dignity,” he said in the statement, urging international support.
On Sunday, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria, which investigates international human rights law violations since the start of the war, warned the country’s transition was fragile and said that “cycles of vengeance and reprisal must be brought to an end.”
The US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that control swathes of northeast Syria said Monday that “the next phase requires launching a real, inclusive dialogue... and establishing a new social contract that guarantees rights, freedoms and equality.”
The Kurdish administration in the northeast has announced a ban on public gatherings on Monday, citing security concerns, while also banning gunfire and fireworks.
Under a March deal, the Kurdish administration was to integrate its institutions into the central government by year-end, but progress has stalled.
On Saturday, a prominent Alawite spiritual leader in Syria urged members of his religious minority, to which the Assad family also belongs, to boycott the celebrations, in protest against the “oppressive” new authorities.
