Oil Updates — crude steadies, weighed down by predicted surplus amid weak demand

Brent crude futures for September rose 11 cents to $82.51 a barrel by 09:45 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude for September climbed 5 cents to $78.45 per barrel. Shutterstock
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Updated 23 July 2024
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Oil Updates — crude steadies, weighed down by predicted surplus amid weak demand

SINGAPORE: Oil prices steadied on Tuesday after falling for the past two sessions, as investors remained cautious amidst expectations of plentiful supplies and weak demand, while brushing off the US presidential campaign upheaval, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures for September rose 11 cents to $82.51 a barrel by 09:45 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude for September climbed 5 cents to $78.45 per barrel.

Traders mostly ignored US President Joe Biden’s decision to call off his reelection bid and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday. Citi analysts said they believed neither Harris nor Republican nominee Donald Trump would promote policies that would greatly affect oil and gas operations.

Instead, the market focused on fundamentals, which Morgan Stanley analysts said were likely to balance out by the fourth quarter and rise to a supply surplus by next year, which would drag down Brent prices to the mid-to-high $70s per barrel range.

Any uptick in oil prices was more because of market consolidation and dip buying activity, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Any further weakening of demand signals, combined with a resolution in Gaza, could lead to a further decrease in oil prices,” Sachdeva said, adding that a swell in US inventories last week would be a sign of dented demand.

The American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, is due to release its estimates for last week’s oil inventories on Tuesday, while official US government data is scheduled to land on Wednesday.

A preliminary Reuters poll of six analysts estimated that US crude stocks, on average, fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week to July 19, while gasoline stocks likely dropped by 500,000 barrels.

The market is also watching developments in Russia. The Tuapse oil refinery, its biggest on the Black Sea, was damaged in a major Ukrainian drone attack that sparked a fire, Russian officials said on Monday, though the extent of the damage was not immediately clear.

“Further strikes on Russian refinery capacity would support refined product prices, due to lower output, and somewhat bearish for crude oil, as it would increase availability of crude oil for export,” said ING market strategists in a note.


India and US release a framework for an interim trade agreement to reduce Trump tariffs

Updated 13 sec ago
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India and US release a framework for an interim trade agreement to reduce Trump tariffs

NEW DELHI: India and the United States released a framework for an interim trade agreement to lower tariffs on Indian goods, which Indian opposition accused of favoring Washington.
The joint statement, released Friday, came after US President Donald Trump announced his plan last week to reduce import tariffs on the South Asian country, six months after imposing steep taxes to press New Delhi to cut its reliance on cheap Russian crude.
Under the deal, tariffs on goods from India would be lowered to 18 percent, from 25 percent, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil, Trump had said.
The two countries called the agreement “reciprocal and mutually beneficial” and expressed commitment to work toward a broader trade deal that “will include additional market access commitments and support more resilient supply chains.” The framework said that more negotiations will be needed to formalize the agreement.
India would also “eliminate or reduce tariffs” on all US industrial goods and a wide range of food and agricultural products, Friday’s statement said.
The US president had said that India would start to reduce its import taxes on US goods to zero and buy $500 billion worth of American products over five years, part of the Trump administration’s bid to seek greater market access and zero tariffs on almost all American exports.
Trump also signed an executive order on Friday to revoke a separate 25 percent tariff on Indian goods he imposed last year.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi thanked Trump “for his personal commitment to robust ties.”
“This framework reflects the growing depth, trust and dynamism of our partnership,” Modi said on social media, adding it will “further deepen investment and technology partnerships between us.”
India’s opposition political parties have largely criticized the deal, saying it heavily favors the US and negatively impacts sensitive sectors such as agriculture. In the past, New Delhi had opposed tariffs on sectors such as agriculture and dairy, which employ the bulk of the country’s population.
Meanwhile, Piyush Goyal, Indian Trade Minister, said the deal protects “sensitive agricultural and dairy products” including maize, wheat, rice, ethanol, tobacco, and some vegetables.
“This (agreement) will open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters,” Goyal said in a social media post, referring to the US annual GDP. He said the increase in exports was likely to create hundreds of thousands of new job opportunities.
Goyal also said tariffs will go down to zero on a wide range of Indian goods exported to the US, including generic pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds, and aircraft parts, further enhancing the country’s export competitiveness.
India and the European Union recently reached a free trade agreement that could affect as many as 2 billion people after nearly two decades of negotiations. That deal would enable free trade on almost all goods between the EU’s 27 members and India, covering everything from textiles to medicines, and bringing down high import taxes for European wine and cars.
India also signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Oman in December and concluded talks for a free trade deal with New Zealand.