India, US move closer to trade pact with interim agreement

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Feb. 13, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 07 February 2026
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India, US move closer to trade pact with interim agreement

  • US to monitor India’s purchase of Russian oil, Trump says in executive order
  • Delhi unlikely to stop buying energy from Moscow despite US deal, experts say

NEW DELHI: India and the US released a framework for an interim trade agreement, as President Donald Trump on Saturday removed additional tariffs on Indian imports previously levied over Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil. 

Under the proposed agreement, Washington’s reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be set at 18 percent, while India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods as well as a wide range of US food and agricultural products, according to a joint statement. 

The framework comes after Trump announced his plan to reduce import tariffs on India earlier this week, six months after accusing India of funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine and subjecting it to a combined tariff rate of around 50 percent on most of the exports. 

“This will open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters, especially MSMEs, farmers and fishermen. The increase in exports will create (hundreds of thousands) of new job opportunities for our women and youth,” Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal said on X. 

He previously said that the two countries will likely sign the formal trade deal in March. 

In an executive order, Trump said the US Secretary of Commerce “shall monitor whether India resumes directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil,” as his decision to rescind the punitive levies on Indian imports came after “India has committed to stop” doing so, while also promising to purchase US energy products and expand defense cooperation over the next decade. 

New Delhi has long abstained from publicly criticizing Russia over the Ukraine war and did not join in with the international sanctions on Moscow, despite pressure from Western countries. With bilateral ties spanning more than seven decades, Russia is also India’s main source of military hardware. 

“Other aspects of the Russia relationship will continue, but on oil there will be a reduction. But how much of a reduction we will have to see,” Nandan Unnikrishnan, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, told Arab News. 

India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements, was previously the biggest buyer of discounted Russian crude, but it has been importing less recently, according to the latest reports. 

“All countries compromise when it’s a question of national interest. If they find that compromise serves their national interest better, they compromise. The Russians have also done it. The Chinese have done it. Everybody has done it. Everyone understands the pressure India is under,” Unnikrishnan said. 

Bharat Karnad, an emeritus professor for national security studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi, believes that India will continue to purchase energy from Moscow. 

“There will be a trade deal (with the US), because Americans do not want to lose the Indian market, which is the biggest in the world right now in terms of being a free and open market,” he said. 

“So that makes the American threat a little hollow. It’s just the usual threats that they issue all the time,” he continued. “I only hope the government of India does not buckle and believe these threats.”


US envoys juggle two crisis talks, raising questions about prospects for success

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US envoys juggle two crisis talks, raising questions about prospects for success

  • “Trump seems more focused on quantity over quality instead of the difficult detailed work of diplomacy,” said Bruen
  • A regional official close to Iran’s leadership said the US team’s double agenda in Geneva reinforced doubts

WASHINGTON/GENEVA/DUBAI: Even for a US president long fixated on deal-making, Donald Trump’s assignment of his favorite envoys to juggle two sets of negotiations – the Iranian nuclear standoff and Russia’s war in Ukraine — in a single day in Geneva has left many in the foreign policy world scratching their heads.
The shuttle diplomacy on Tuesday by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has raised questions not only about whether they are overstretched and outmatched, but about their serious prospects for resolving either of the twin crises, experts say.
Trump, who has frequently boasted about having ended multiple wars and conflicts in the first year of his second four-year term, has made clear he is looking to add more international deals that he can tout in his quest for the Nobel Peace Prize.
But the high-stakes negotiations over the two long-running issues were arranged quickly, and the choice of Geneva as the setting for both was never clearly explained, except for the city’s long history of hosting international diplomacy.
“Trump seems more focused on quantity over quality instead of the difficult detailed work of diplomacy,” said Brett Bruen, who was a foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration and now heads the Global Situation Room strategic consultancy. “Tackling both issues at the same time in the same place doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
Iran was the opening act in a carefully choreographed diplomatic dance in Geneva, where talks ⁠took place under ⁠high security in two locations on different sides of the Swiss, French-speaking city.
After 3-1/2 hours of indirect discussions between the US team and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi mediated by Oman, both sides indicated that some progress was made, but there was no suggestion that an agreement was imminent in the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear program.
As long as the diplomatic process continues, Trump can keep expanding his massive military buildup near Iran, making clear that use of force remains on the table. That is likely to keep the Middle East on edge, with many fearing that US strikes could escalate into a wider regional war.

’OVERSTRETCH’?
With barely a pause on Tuesday, the US delegates went straight from the Iran talks at Oman’s diplomatic mission to the five-star InterContinental hotel for the first of two days of Russia-Ukraine ⁠negotiations over a war that Trump, during the 2024 presidential campaign, had promised to end in a day.
Expectations were low for a breakthrough in the latest round of talks to end Europe’s biggest war since World War Two ended in 1945.
A regional official close to Iran’s leadership said the US team’s double agenda in Geneva reinforced doubts about whether Washington was sincere about either of the diplomatic efforts.
“The approach risks overstretch,” the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. “It resembles an emergency room with two critically ill patients and a single doctor unable to give either case sustained attention, increasing the likelihood of failure.”
Mohanad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut said there was too much at stake in the Iran crisis for the US to handle diplomacy this way.
“Having a team of Witkoff and Kushner tasked with resolving all the world’s problems is, frankly, a shocking reality,” he said.
Some experts said the two, both from Trump’s world of New York real estate development, lack the depth of knowledge and experience to go up against veteran negotiators like Araqchi and their Russian interlocutors and that they were in over their heads in such complicated conflicts.
Absent from the Geneva meetings was US ⁠Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s top ⁠diplomat, who is known as a foreign policy wonk.
Asked for comment, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump and his team “have done more than anyone to bring both sides together to stop the killing and deliver a peace deal” in Ukraine. She denounced anonymous “critics” of the president’s approach but did not provide answers to Reuters’ specific questions for this story.

’ENVOY FOR EVERYTHING’
Administration officials have long defended Witkoff and Kushner’s roles, citing their skills as dealmakers, the trust Trump puts in them, and the failings over the years of more traditional diplomatic approaches. Witkoff, a longtime Trump friend often called the “envoy for everything” due to his broad remit, played a key role in securing a ceasefire agreement last year between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza war, though progress has stalled toward a more permanent resolution. His diplomatic efforts with Iran and Russia have had little success so far.
In Trump’s first term, Kushner spearheaded the Abraham Accords, under which several Arab states forged landmark diplomatic relations with Israel. But the pact has not advanced much since Trump returned to office nearly 13 months ago.
Kushner and Witkoff’s ability to handle their latest diplomatic tasks has been undercut by Trump’s stripping down of the government’s foreign policy apparatus, both at the State Department and the National Security Council, where many veteran staffers were sent packing, some analysts say.
”We’ve seen a hollowing-out of our diplomatic bench,” said former Obama foreign policy adviser Bruen. “So there’s a question of whether we still have the right people to work on these big issues.”