Jerusalem relatively quiet for now but a storm is close

Very few areas of contention have not borne witness to alarming levels of tension in the Israeli-Palestinian arena over the last 200 days. Gaza is on life support, decimated by an unimaginable pounding that has produced an estimated 23 million tonnes of rubble. Meanwhile, Israeli settlers and a complicit Israeli army have laid waste to the West Bank in historically high levels of violence.

Yet one arena, typically the trigger point for major conflagrations between Israelis and Palestinians, has remained relatively quiet, at least for now. Jerusalem has sparked many conflagrations, not least the 2014 Israeli invasion of Gaza. So, how long will this last?

Let’s be clear. Jerusalem for Palestinians has been no fun since the beginning of October. Palestinians routinely report, as do human rights agencies, how much more brutal the Israeli police have been since the Hamas attack. They remain third-class residents, not even citizens, in what Israel portrays as a united city. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The pyromaniacs are all hovering, waiting to be unleashed. Chief among these is Itamar Ben-Gvir, the convicted criminal who is now Israel’s national security minister. He has recently pushed for two decisions, neither of which have been approved.

Firstly, he wanted to ban Palestinian citizens of Israel from accessing Al-Aqsa during Ramadan. The Israeli security services pushed back, arguing this would be inflammatory, as of course Ben-Gvir knew only too well. That was the point for him. The racist settler minister did not get his way.

Many Israeli Jewish extremists are planning ever more dramatic ways of further altering the status quo on Al-Aqsa

Chris Doyle

Secondly, the Cabinet had decided to devolve the authority for the enforcement of construction laws from the Ministry of Finance to the Ministry of National Security. Ben-Gvir would have had a free hand to kick off his much-cherished demolition derby of Palestinian homes, which he has long threatened. For whatever reason, the Cabinet then dropped this from the agenda. This could, of course, be resumed as desired.

As a result, this year’s Ramadan in Jerusalem was surprisingly calm in comparison to recent years. This is deceptive and the storm could be just round the corner. Passover begins on Monday evening and many Israeli Jewish extremists are planning ever more dramatic ways of further altering the status quo on Al-Aqsa. These even include a plan to sacrifice a pure red heifer on the Mount of Olives in an attempt to get closer to the building of a so-called Third Temple to replace Al-Aqsa.

That Jerusalem may be calmer on the outside than usual is not accidental. Palestinians in the city, who constitute 40 percent of the population, are wary of providing even a scintilla of an excuse for the Israeli extremists to hammer them. They know their enemies just want a reason to smash them. They clearly decided not to rise up after Oct. 7 and rejected the calls of the Hamas leadership to do so.

But the Israeli authorities have also decided to be cautious and, as the Ramadan decision showed, the security services are acutely aware of the perils of opening up too many fronts at once. Friday prayers at Al-Aqsa were peaceful, with more than 100,000 Muslims in attendance. This was in stark contrast to the run up to the May 2021 war on Gaza, when armed Israeli forces violated the mosque, shot at worshippers and used tear gas inside Al-Aqsa.

Yet everything is on a knife-edge. Israel’s plans for evicting Palestinians and expanding settlements in Jerusalem are not on hold. Far from it. In the shadow of the Gaza atrocities, Israel’s government has accelerated the construction of settlements across East Jerusalem, with more than 20 projects totaling thousands of housing units having been approved or advanced since the start of the war in Gaza six months ago.

Last week, tenders for more than 1,000 units were published to expand a very dangerous settlement. The Lower Aqueduct project would link Har Homa and Givat HaMatos, completing the concrete settlement jungle that cuts off Jerusalem from neighboring Bethlehem. The whole plan, according to the Israeli nongovernmental organization Peace Now, has been expedited in record time.

Israel’s plans for evicting Palestinians and expanding settlements in Jerusalem are not on hold. Far from it.

Chris Doyle

The lack of any international reaction shows how little politicians in American and European capitals understand how this further undermines any residual chance of a two-state solution.

Demolitions and the forcible evictions of Palestinians have been running at a record pace over the last 12 months. Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that three Palestinian families who live in the Silwan district are to be evicted and their homes turned over to the East Jerusalem settlers of Ateret Cohanim. This extremist settler group is, for some reason, yet to be sanctioned by the US and the EU. The presiding judge was Noam Sohlberg, who just happens to be a West Bank settler himself. He too is yet to be sanctioned.

In the small Al-Bustan area of Silwan, just below the Old City, impending demolitions threaten 1,550 Palestinian families.

Many will recall the massive protests over demolitions in Sheikh Jarrah when Israel threatened major evictions in 2021. Last week, Jerusalem Magistrate’s Court ruled that the Diab family have to leave their home in Karem Al-Ja’uni in Sheikh Jarrah within three months. They can appeal, but what chance will the 23 members of the family have? At best, they may get more delays.

Other projects still proceeding apace include settler efforts to take over Armenian properties in the Old City. This is part of an attempt to Judaize the Old City and, in this case, threaten the 1,600-year-old Armenian presence there. Armenians are taking it in shifts to guard their properties, but they face settlers armed with clubs and who have police backing. The Armenians are part of the wider Christian presence in Jerusalem. Alarmingly, Christians in the city have witnessed an alarming rise in settler hate crimes committed against them, including the desecration of graves.

Jerusalem needs not only careful observation, but also preventive action. Peacemakers, wherever they are hiding, need to be pressing for action now, before the crisis re-erupts in this most contested of cities. Israel needs to know there will be meaningful consequences. The forcible evictions, the demolitions and the land grabs increase the tensions, as does the Israeli police brutality. If matters do explode, precedent suggests it will be at Al-Aqsa.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech