Pakistan stocks close bearish as diminished policy rate cut hopes outweigh easing inflation

Stock brokers monitor share prices displayed on a digital screen during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi on February 12, 2024. (AFP/File)
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Updated 15 March 2024
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Pakistan stocks close bearish as diminished policy rate cut hopes outweigh easing inflation

  • Monetary policy surveys show a majority of people expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 22 percent
  • The benchmark KSE100 index also lost its value by 1.5 percent on a week-on-week basis due to profit taking

KARACHI: Pakistan’s equities ended the weekend trading session on a bearish note, as investor hopes for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy diminished, despite easing inflationary pressures, according to equity analysts.

Trading at the bourse remained subdued throughout the week, except for Thursday, when the benchmark KSE100 index surged by 1,015 points. This was triggered by the commencement of talks between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistani authorities for the final review of the $3 billion bailout program.

On Friday, the KSE 100 index shed 247 points, closing at 64,816, which marked a 1.5 percent week-on-week decline, primarily due to the anticipated maintenance of the current interest rate and profit-taking.

“Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Pakistan-IMF review talks, coupled with expectations of a status quo in the upcoming monetary policy announcement, and the weekly inflation surge to 32.89 percent year-on-year, acted as catalysts for the bearish close on Friday,” Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Corporation, commented.

Pakistan’s central bank is slated to meet on Monday to review the policy rate, which has been held steady at 22 percent across the last five consecutive monetary policy committee meetings. Investors are hopeful for some policy easing after inflation in February 2024 dipped to 23.1 percent from January’s 28.3 percent and February 2023’s 31.5 percent.

“Investors were optimistic that the central bank might soften its monetary stance, but surveys conducted by financial firms indicate that the majority of participants expect the status quo to be maintained,” Abdul Azeem, Head of Research at Spectrum Securities, said.

A survey by Topline Securities revealed that 55 percent of participants expect the policy rate to remain at 22 percent, while the remaining 45 percent predict a policy rate reduction. Of those anticipating a cut, 2 percent predict a decrease of 25 basis points (bps), 10 percent foresee a 50bps reduction, 24 percent expect a 100bps cut and 9 percent believe it will decrease by more than 100bps.

Additionally, a recent survey by the CFA Society Pakistan, affiliated with a global association of investment professionals, indicated that 67.3 percent of participants do not anticipate any change in the policy rate.“We believe the central bank will remain cautious and adopt a watch-and-see approach until the inflation trend continues to fall,” said Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities.

He highlighted key risks to the inflation trajectory, including delays in the release of IMF funds, the IMF demanding additional tax measures to meet revenue targets in case of any shortfall and pressure on the dollar against the rupee, primarily due to delays in receiving dollar inflows.

The IMF mission in Pakistan is currently reviewing the quarterly performance of the country’s economic indicators under the $3 billion bailout program, with the majority of Pakistani analysts optimistic about a smooth review process.

“The review for the third and final tranche of the Standby Agreement is expected to go very smoothly,” said Dr. Sajid Amin, deputy executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad, noting both parties are satisfied with the progress on the review targets.

The successful completion of the program will pave the way for the disbursement of the remaining $1.1 billion and will provide an opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new and extended IMF program.

“The country urgently needs a new IMF program to manage external financing needs and economic recovery,” Amin added. “It is encouraging to see that the new government has a clear approach, unlike the previous two instances where engagements with the IMF were delayed due to political issues.”

Pakistani financial analysts believe that a larger IMF program would boost investor confidence, potentially leading the stock market to reach new heights.

“The stock market is expected to scale new highs if the IMF agrees to an $8-9 billion program,” said Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited.

He expected the key stock index, KSE100, might reach the 100,000 mark with the longer-term IMF program.


Pakistan president visits Balochistan, vows to establish state’s writ amid surging attacks

Updated 19 March 2025
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Pakistan president visits Balochistan, vows to establish state’s writ amid surging attacks

  • Separatist militants last week hijacked train in Balochistan, holding hundreds hostage
  • President demands modern weapons for law enforcement agencies to strengthen security 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari visited Balochistan’s Quetta city on Wednesday to review the law and order situation in the province, vowing that the state would establish its writ there despite surging militant attacks in recent days. 

Zardari’s visit to Quetta takes place as Pakistan struggles to contain militant attacks in the southwestern province, where separatists last week hijacked a train and held hostage hundreds of passengers. The military launched an operation and, after a day-long standoff, rescued 354 captives and killed 33 insurgents. A final count showed 23 soldiers, three railway employees and five passengers had died in the attack.

Zardari arrived in Quetta on a day-long visit with his son and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari on Wednesday. The two attended a meeting with Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti to review the security situation in the province. 

“President Asif Ali Zardari says the terrorist elements will be defeated at all costs and writ of the state will be ensured in Balochistan,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan said. 

The Pakistani president said “terrorists” want to divide the nation, vowing they would never succeed in their ambitions. 

“The president said that modern arms would be provided to the Counter-Terrorism Département and other law enforcement institutions to strengthen security efforts,” the state broadcaster reported. 

Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province by land but its most backward by almost all economic and social indicators. For decades it has been plagued by a low-level insurgency by militants fighting for a greater share of the province’s wealth.

Separatist militants, such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) accuse the central government of denying locals a share of Balochistan’s mineral resources. The federal government and the military strongly deny these accusations, and say they have launched several projects in the province to support its development. 

Militant violence has persisted in the province after the train hijacking. Three paramilitary soldiers among five people were killed in a suicide attack in Balochistan’s Nushki district on Sunday. 

A top parliamentary panel on national security met in Islamabad on Tuesday to discuss surging attacks in Balochistan. The panel stressed the need for a national consensus to counter militancy, calling for a unified political stance to confront the threat with “full force of the state.”


Pakistan football team to travel to Saudi Arabia tomorrow for AFC Asian Cup qualifier camp

Updated 19 March 2025
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Pakistan football team to travel to Saudi Arabia tomorrow for AFC Asian Cup qualifier camp

  • Pakistan will face Syria in AFC Asian Cup qualifier fixture on Mar. 25 in Saudi Arabia's Al-Ahsa
  • Green shirts to resume training camp in Saudi Arabia under Head Coach Stephen Constantine

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's national football team will travel to Saudi Arabia tomorrow, Thursday, where they will resume training for the upcoming AFC Asian Cup qualifier fixture against Syria, the Pakistan Football Federation (PFF) said in a statement. 

Pakistan will kick off their AFC Asian Cup 2027 qualification campaign against Syria on Mar. 25 at the Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium in Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia. 

The green shirts concluded their training session in the eastern city of Lahore on Wednesday night, the PFF said. 

"The team is set to depart for Saudi Arabia tomorrow night, where they will continue their training under the guidance of Head Coach Stephen Constantine," the PFF said. 

Earlier this month, Pakistan reappointed Constantine, who previously served as the country's head coach from late 2023 until mid-2024, as head coach for the Syria fixture. 

Pakistan's inclusion in the qualifier was made possible after the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) lifted its international suspension against the country earlier this month. 

FIFA hit Pakistan on Feb. 6 with a third international suspension in less than eight years after the federation rejected its electoral reforms. Following the suspension, the PFF unanimously approved FIFA's proposed constitutional amendments in an extraordinary meeting in Lahore this month. 

Pakistan are placed in Group E of the AFC Asian Cup qualifiers alongside Syria, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

PAKISTAN PROBABLES

Goal-Keepers: Yousuf Butt, Saqib Hanif, Abdul Basit and Adam Khan

Defenders: Abdullah Iqbal, Easah Suliman, Haseeb Khan, Junaid Shah, Mamoon Moosa, Mohammad Fazal, Abdul Rehman and Waqar Ihtisam

Midfielders: Alamgir Ghazi, Ali Uzair, Ali Zafar, Muhammad Umar Hayat, Rahis Nabi, Toqeer ul Hassan, Umair Ali and Moin Ahmed

Forwards: Fareedullah, Harun Hamid, Imran Kayani, Mckeal Abdullah, Abdul Samad, Shayak Dost and Muhammad Adeel Younas


Pakistan, Russia conduct joint naval exercise in North Arabian Sea

Updated 19 March 2025
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Pakistan, Russia conduct joint naval exercise in North Arabian Sea

  • Both navies hold ‘Arabian Monsoon-VI’ exercise in Arabian Sea to enhance interoperability
  • Russian navy delegates meet Pakistan Navy officials, pay tribute to Pakistan founder Jinnah

KARACHI: Pakistani and Russian navies conducted a bilateral naval exercise named “Arabian Monsoon-VI” in the North Arabian Sea on Wednesday, the Pakistan Navy said in a statement, in their bid to counter maritime security threats and enhance interoperability. 

Pakistan and Russia, once Cold War rivals, have strengthened their relations through increased dialogue, trade and cooperation in energy and defense. Regular port visits and joint exercises between the Pakistan Navy and the Russian Navy have deepened bilateral ties, enhanced naval collaboration and fostered mutual trust.

“Various assets of Pakistan Navy, including a Destroyer, an Offshore Patrol Vessel, a Fast Attack Craft (Missile), a Maritime Patrol Aircraft and a UAV, participated in the exercise alongside Russian Federation Navy ships,” the Directorate General Public Relations (DGPR) of the Pakistan Navy said. 

Multi-faceted maritime warfare serials and a coordinated patrol featured in the exercise, which also aimed at enhancing the interoperability of both navies, it added.

The exercise also featured participation from the Pakistan Air Force fighter aircraft. 

The Russian navy delegates also called on Pakistan Navy officials and paid tribute to the nation’s founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah, laying a floral wreath at his mausoleum.

“Joint maritime exercises with key naval forces underscore Pakistan Navy’s commitment to maintaining maritime security and ensuring a stable maritime order in the region,” the statement added.

On Mar. 13, the Russian navy flotilla arrived in the southern port city of Karachi where cross-ship visits, harbor drills and table-top discussions between the two sides were conducted. 

The Pakistan Navy regularly collaborates with allies and friendly nations, conducting joint military exercises to enhance synergy, promote regional peace and stability, deter piracy, drug trafficking and other illicit maritime activities.


Pakistan stocks hit record high on strong buying from local institutions

Updated 19 March 2025
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Pakistan stocks hit record high on strong buying from local institutions

  • The KSE-100 Index hit a record high of 117,974 points, rising by 973 points
  • Overall, 543 million shares were traded, with a turnover of Rs 32 billion

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s benchmark stock index (PSX) hit an all-time high on Wednesday, nearing the barrier of 118,000 points due to strong buying activity from local institutions, Topline Securities said. 

The KSE-100 Index hit a record high of 117,974 points, rising by 973 points (0.83 percent). 

“The market continued its upward momentum, fueled by strong buying activity from local institutions, peaking at 118,244 points during the day,” Topline Securities said in its market review. 

The rally was primarily driven by Hub Power Company, Mari Energies, Engro Holdings, Systems Limited and Pakistan Petroleum, which together contributed 551 points to the index. On the other hand, Fauji Fertilizer Company, Engro Fertilizer, and Pakistan Oilfields exerted downward pressure, pulling the index down by 54 points.

“Overall, 543 million shares were traded, with a turnover of Rs 32 billion. Pakistan International Bulk Terminal topped the volume chart with 52 million shares traded,” Topline added. 

Mohammed Sohail, a chief executive at Topline Securities, attributed the bull run to “expectations that the government will agree with banks to resolve old circular debt issues that will help listed energy companies.”

In Pakistan, “circular debt” refers to a cascading cycle of unpaid liabilities within the energy sector, where power distribution companies (DISCOs) fail to pay the Central Power Purchasing Authority-Guarantee (CPPA-G), which in turn cannot pay power generation companies (GENCOs), and so on.

The government last week announced it had reached an agreement with banks to extend PHL, a state-owned entity, Rs1.25 trillion in financing at a favorable floating interest rate of Kibor minus 0.90pc per annum.

The move was described as part of a broad strategy to eliminate circular debt in the power sector, which has been fueled by unpaid bills, theft, and distribution losses that have continued to accumulate over the past decade. Circular debt is one of the most contentious issues in Pakistan’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first review of its $7 billion bailout program.

Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Limited, said the positive momentum in stocks was continuing since last week.

“Secondly, volume levels have improved since Ramazan’s first week — that is, buying activity is visible,” she said. “On the economic front, there has been significant progress made regarding the IMF deal.” 
 


Pakistan announces three-day Eid Al-Fitr holiday from Mar. 31 to Apr. 2 

Updated 19 March 2025
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Pakistan announces three-day Eid Al-Fitr holiday from Mar. 31 to Apr. 2 

  • Ramadan began in Pakistan on Mar. 2, a day after most other Muslims nations
  • Eid Al-Fitr festival at the end of Ramadan is expected to fall on Mar. 31 in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan government has announced a three-day holiday from Mar. 31 to Apr. 2 on account of the Muslim festival of Eid Al-Fitr, the cabinet division said on Wednesday. 

Eid Al-Fitr marks the end of the fasting month of Ramadan for Muslims worldwide. Ramadan began in Pakistan on Mar. 2, a day after most other Muslims nations, and the Eid Al-Fitr festival at end of the holy month is expected to fall on Mar. 31.

Pakistan’s central moon sighting committee, the Ruet-e-Hilal Committee, spots the Shawwal moon and declares Eid dates in advance.

“It is notified that the Prime Minister has been pleased to declare public holidays (Monday to Wednesday) on the occasion of Eid-Al-Fitr,” the notification from the cabinet division said. 

Eid Al-Fitr is one of two major Muslim festivals, the other being Eid Al-Adha, which is marked by the slaughtering of animals such as sheep and goats whose meat is shared among family and friends and donated to the poor. This year, Eid Al-Adha is expected to fall on June 6 or 7, marking the culmination of the Hajj pilgrimage.