Alongside its electoral odyssey, Pakistan must navigate an economic mess

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” These iconic words penned by Charles Dickens resonate deeply with the ebb and flow of human history. Within these dichotomies lies the struggle for democracy.

Few instances in recent times demonstrate that more emphatically than the people of Pakistan on February 8, delivering an electoral upset that few were expecting. Despite the Supreme Court judgment taking away the iconic electoral symbol of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the cricket bat, people voted for all manner of symbols representing PTI-backed candidates. The attempt to confuse voters and diminish the turnout was met with defiance, ingenuity, and the unwavering hope of citizens to take charge of their future through the ballot box. In their exercise of the vote despite all impediments, including the mysterious shutdown of Internet services as polling commenced, Pakistanis reaffirmed their faith in upholding the tenuous social contract between the state and its citizens.

Once polls closed and results from polling stations across the length and breadth of the country started trickling in, the initial ripple of PTI candidates leading by small margins swelled into healthy leads, and by 10 p.m. the triumphant wave across the country, in urban and rural areas across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Karachi, was turning into a tsunami. PTI appeared to be heading toward a victory with the will of the people as the sole arbiter of the right to govern.

History bears witness to the devastating consequences of electoral fraud and manipulation, especially in states with precarious solvency issues.

Javed Hassan

However, given Pakistan’s checkered history of elections, such an exultant ending for the electorate was always unlikely. The election, again, has been marred by allegations of irregularities, only this time the scale is claimed to be of epic proportions. The momentary exuberance within PTI supporters of the previous day turned into despair as they felt their mandate was being stolen. The sacred trust the public bestows upon the electoral process, already tarnished in the run-up to the election, suffered a further blow.

Philosophers throughout the ages have articulated the intrinsic link between electoral integrity and the stability of civil society. John Locke posited that governments derive their authority from the consent of the governed. Central to this contract is the expectation that rulers will govern by the will of the people, as expressed through free and fair elections. Locke warned that when rulers violate this covenant by manipulating electoral outcomes, they forfeit their legitimacy and invite resistance from the populace. In the modern era, thinkers such as Hannah Arendt have expounded upon the existential threat posed by electoral fraud to the fabric of society. Arendt argued that the manipulation of elections catalyzes the erosion of public trust, leading to a descent into tyranny and despotism.

History bears witness to the devastating consequences of electoral fraud and manipulation, especially in states with precarious solvency issues. From ancient civilizations to modern democracies, instances of rigged elections have sowed seeds of discord and upheaval, shattering the bond between the state and its citizens. In a state that was already facing bankruptcy, the perilous consequences of limited public trust in an unfair electoral system that was perceived as being manipulated by nobility and clergy served as a catalyst to precipitate the tumultuous events of the French Revolution. Similarly, the fraudulent elections of the 20th century, from totalitarian regimes to fledgling democracies, have sparked revolutions and civil unrest, underscoring the fragility of democracy in the face of electoral malpractice.

Much like pre-revolutionary France, Pakistan’s solvency is in a precarious position. To maintain debt sustainability, the country needs to negotiate a new IMF program as soon as the coalition government, cobbled together by disparate parties, takes charge. The Fund’s next facility will require unpopular reforms that will be difficult to implement for a dispensation with a fractured mandate and struggling for legitimacy.

Moreover, the two largest parties forming the coalition, Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), have marked policy differences as revealed in their respective manifestos. The PML-N seeks to provide energy subsidies and reduced taxes to industrialists by creating fiscal space by privatizing state-owned enterprises. In contrast, the PPP aims to preserve public jobs while expanding social protection, energy, and housing subsidies for the poor. It is difficult to see how these two diametrically opposite approaches can be easily and expeditiously resolved. Failing to do so could escalate a political crisis into a financial one. This concern was reflected in Moody’s latest statement, which deemed the election results credit-negative. The flawed elections have failed to provide the much-required glimmer of hope.

– Javed Hassan has worked in senior executive positions both in the profit and non-profit sector in Pakistan and internationally. He’s an investment banker by training.

Twitter: @javedhassan