ISTANBUL: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday emerged from his toughest election test unbowed and in strong position to extend two decades of his Islamic-rooted rule by another five years in a historic May 28 runoff.
The 69-year-old leader defied pollsters and his country’s most dire economic crisis since the 1990s to come within a fraction of a percentage point of winning Sunday’s presidential ballot.
His right-wing party also retained control of parliament through an alliance with ultra-nationalists on a drama-filled night that concluded with Erdogan delivering a victory speech from a balcony to jubilant supporters.
He even won in regions hit by a calamitous February earthquake that claimed more than 50,000 lives — and where anger at the government’s slow response to Turkiye’s worst disaster of modern times was seething.
“A staggering win for Erdogan,” emerging markets economist Timothy Ash said in a note to clients.
“He has the magic dust at these times. And he just gets Turks — the nationalist, socially conservative and Muslim ones.”
The main opposition party led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu confronted the reality Monday that they were unable to beat Erdogan at one of his most vulnerable moments.
“Don’t despair,” Kilicdaroglu told his supporters. “We will stand up and take this election together.”
Turkiye’s election officials confirmed that there would be a second round because the remaining uncounted votes would not swing the outcome.
Erdogan secured 49.5 percent of the vote and Kilicdaroglu picked up 44.9 percent.
Nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan — a former member of a far-right party now allied with the government — won 5.2 percent.
Official turnout reached a record 88.9 percent.
Observers from the Council of Europe said the election was “marked by an unlevel playing field but still competitive.”
The markets were depressed and Erdogan’s supporters ecstatic.
The lira touched new lows against the dollar and stocks on the Istanbul exchange fell on a realization that the era of Erdogan’s unconventional economics may not be over.
“We think Turkiye is now at very high risk of an increase in macroeconomic instability,” the Capital Economics consultancy said.
The view was different in the more nationalist and conservative corners of Turkiye.
“The people won!” the right-wing Yeni Safak newspaper proclaimed in a banner headline.
The pro-government Sabah daily called Erdogan’s performance a “superb success.”
Erdogan supporter Hamdi Kurumahmut was brimming with confidence the morning after Turkiye’s biggest election of its post-Ottoman era.
“Erdogan is going to win. He is a real leader. The Turkish people trust him. He has a vision for Turkiye,” Kurumahmut said in Istanbul.
“There are things that need to be improved on the economy, education or the refugee policy. But we know he’s the one who can sort all that out,” the 40-year-old tourism sector worker added.
US President Joe Biden is “looking forward to working with whoever” wins Turkiye’s knife-edge election, the White House said Monday as it praised the NATO ally for holding a peaceful vote.
“We congratulate the Turkish people for expressing their desires at the ballot box in a peaceful way,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
Some Kilicdaroglu supporters tried to stay positive.
“I don’t want to even think about a scenario in which Erdogan wins,” Emin Serbest said as the last voted were being counted.
“If Kilicdaroglu wins... a beautiful time awaits us,” said the 33-year-old Istanbul municipality worker.
But most analysts feel that Kilicdaroglu and his six-party opposition alliance will have a difficult time halting Erdogan’s momentum over the coming two weeks.
Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy put the odds of an Erdogan victory at 80 percent.
“The results show that Erdogan and his allies successfully bolstered the incumbent’s support with strong messaging on terrorism, security, and family values — even as the economy continued to top voter concerns,” Peker said in note.
Political risk consultant Anthony Skinner said Sunday’s result underscored the difficulty of trying to gauge public opinion in the strongly polarized nation of 85 million people.
“Many pre-election public opinion poll results did not reflect Erdogan’s resourcefulness and the degree of support he still enjoys in the country,” the veteran Turkiye watcher said.
“It just goes to show how careful one needs to be when looking at public opinion polls prior to elections.”
Turkiye’s resurgent Erdogan heads for historic election runoff
https://arab.news/884v6
Turkiye’s resurgent Erdogan heads for historic election runoff
- Incumbent leader defies pollsters to come within a fraction of a percentage point of winning Sunday’s presidential ballot
- Turkiye’s election officials confirm that there would be a second round
Sudan defense minister dismisses ‘intelligence document’ as fabrication after convoy strike
- Gen. Hassan Kabroun tells Arab News claims that army hid weapons in aid convoy are “completely false”
RIYADH: Sudan’s defense minister has firmly denied reports attributed to Sudanese intelligence alleging that a convoy targeted in North Kordofan was secretly transporting weapons under the cover of humanitarian aid.
Gen. Hassan Kabroun described the claims as “false” and an attempt to distract from what he called a militia crime.
The controversy erupted after news reports emerged that a document attributed to Sudan’s General Intelligence Service claimed the convoy struck in Al-Rahad on Friday was not a purely humanitarian mission, but was instead carrying “high-quality weapons and ammunition” destined for Sudanese Armed Forces units operating in the state.
The report further alleged that the convoy had been outwardly classified as humanitarian in order to secure safe passage through conflict zones, and that the Rapid Support Forces had destroyed it after gathering intelligence on its route and cargo.
Kabroun categorically rejected the narrative.
“First of all, we would like to stress the fact that this news is false,” he told Arab News. “Even the headline that talks about the security of the regions, such as Al-Dabbah, is not a headline the army would use.”
He described the document as fabricated and politically motivated, saying it was designed to “cover up the heinous crime they committed.”
The minister affirmed that the area targeted by drones is under full control of the Sudanese Armed Forces and does not require any covert military transport.
“Second, we confirm that the region that was targeted by drones is controlled by the army and very safe,” Kabroun said. “It does not require transporting any military equipment using aid convoys as decoys because it is a safe area controlled by the army, which has significant capabilities to transport humanitarian aid.”
According to the minister, the Sudanese military has both the logistical capacity and secure routes necessary to move equipment openly when needed.
“The army is professional and does not need to deliver anything to Kadugli or Dalang on board aid convoys,” he said. “The road between Dalang and Kadugli is open. The Sudanese forces used that road to enter and take control of the region. The road is open and whenever military trucks need to deliver anything, they can do so without resorting to any form of camouflage.”
Kabroun further rejected any suggestion that the military uses humanitarian operations as cover.
“Aid is transported by dedicated relief vehicles to the areas in need of this assistance,” he said. “Aid is not transported by the army. The army and security apparatus do not interfere with relief efforts at all, and do not even accompany the convoys.”
He stressed that the Sudanese Armed Forces maintains a clear institutional separation between military operations and humanitarian work, particularly amid the country’s crisis.
“These are false claims,” he said. “This fake news wanted to cover up the heinous crime they committed.”
Sudan has been gripped by conflict since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, plunging the country into what the United Nations has described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.
The latest dispute over the convoy comes amid intensified fighting in South Kordofan, a strategically sensitive region linking central Sudan with the contested areas of Darfur and Blue Nile.
The false report suggested that intelligence monitoring had enabled the RSF to strike what it described as a military convoy disguised as humanitarian aid. But Kabroun dismissed that version outright.
“The intelligence agency is well aware of its duties,” he said. “The Sudanese Army has enough weapons and equipment to use in the areas of operations. These claims are completely false.”
He argued that the narrative being circulated seeks to shift blame for attacks on civilian infrastructure and humanitarian movements.
“This shows that they are trying to cover up the atrocities,” he added, referring to the militia.
Kabroun maintained that the army has regained momentum on multiple fronts and remains fully capable of sustaining its operations without resorting to deception.
“The region is secure, the roads are open, and the army does not need camouflage,” he said. “We are operating professionally and transparently.”
“These claims are completely false,” Kabroun said. “The Sudanese Army does not use humanitarian convoys for military purposes.”
