Dollar pauses for breath as China GDP beats estimates

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, eased 0.078 percent to 102.01 after rising 0.5 percent overnight. (Shutterstock)
Short Url
Updated 18 April 2023
Follow

Dollar pauses for breath as China GDP beats estimates

SINGAPORE: The dollar slipped on Tuesday after a sharp rise overnight as strong US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in May, while China’s economic recovery gathered pace in the first quarter.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, eased 0.078 percent to 102.01 after rising 0.5 percent overnight.

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2023, data showed on Tuesday, beating analyst forecasts for a 4 percent expansion as the end of COVID-19 curbs lifted the world’s second-largest economy out of a slump.

Separate data on March activity also released on Tuesday showed retail sales growth quickened to 10.6 percent, beating expectations and hitting a near two-year high, while factory output growth also sped up but was just below expectations.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. currency strategist Christopher Wong said it was quite an encouraging report, with retail sales, GDP and property sales all higher than expected, reinforcing that post-pandemic recovery momentum remained intact.

The offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.02 percent to $6.8795 per dollar. In the US, data released on Monday showed confidence among single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth consecutive month in April, while manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months.

Markets are pricing in a 91 percent chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, the CME FedWatch tool showed, with traders expecting rate cuts toward the end of the year.

“The dollar can remain sensitive to the strength, or not, of the economic data as the Fed likely nears the end of their tightening cycle,” said Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Meanwhile, the euro was up 0.07 percent to $1.0934 but was below the one-year high of $1.10755 it touched last week, with traders expecting the region’s central bank to stick to its monetary tightening path.

The Japanese yen was flat at 134.48 per dollar, while the sterling last traded at $1.2381, up 0.06 percent on the day. Investors will focus on UK employment data due later in the day, which could cause some volatility in the pound if the report shows that the labor market is not cooling.

CBA’s Clifton said Britain’s policymakers would be watching the wages data closely for further confirmation that private sector income growth is slowing.

The kiwi rose 0.10 percent to $0.619, while the Australian dollar gained 0.22 percent to $0.672.

Minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed that the central bank considered an 11th-consecutive rate hike in April before deciding to pause. The central bank, however, said it was ready to tighten further if inflation and demand failed to cool.


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
Follow

World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.