Dollar pauses for breath as China GDP beats estimates

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, eased 0.078 percent to 102.01 after rising 0.5 percent overnight. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 18 April 2023
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Dollar pauses for breath as China GDP beats estimates

SINGAPORE: The dollar slipped on Tuesday after a sharp rise overnight as strong US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in May, while China’s economic recovery gathered pace in the first quarter.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major rivals, eased 0.078 percent to 102.01 after rising 0.5 percent overnight.

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2023, data showed on Tuesday, beating analyst forecasts for a 4 percent expansion as the end of COVID-19 curbs lifted the world’s second-largest economy out of a slump.

Separate data on March activity also released on Tuesday showed retail sales growth quickened to 10.6 percent, beating expectations and hitting a near two-year high, while factory output growth also sped up but was just below expectations.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. currency strategist Christopher Wong said it was quite an encouraging report, with retail sales, GDP and property sales all higher than expected, reinforcing that post-pandemic recovery momentum remained intact.

The offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.02 percent to $6.8795 per dollar. In the US, data released on Monday showed confidence among single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth consecutive month in April, while manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months.

Markets are pricing in a 91 percent chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, the CME FedWatch tool showed, with traders expecting rate cuts toward the end of the year.

“The dollar can remain sensitive to the strength, or not, of the economic data as the Fed likely nears the end of their tightening cycle,” said Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Meanwhile, the euro was up 0.07 percent to $1.0934 but was below the one-year high of $1.10755 it touched last week, with traders expecting the region’s central bank to stick to its monetary tightening path.

The Japanese yen was flat at 134.48 per dollar, while the sterling last traded at $1.2381, up 0.06 percent on the day. Investors will focus on UK employment data due later in the day, which could cause some volatility in the pound if the report shows that the labor market is not cooling.

CBA’s Clifton said Britain’s policymakers would be watching the wages data closely for further confirmation that private sector income growth is slowing.

The kiwi rose 0.10 percent to $0.619, while the Australian dollar gained 0.22 percent to $0.672.

Minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed that the central bank considered an 11th-consecutive rate hike in April before deciding to pause. The central bank, however, said it was ready to tighten further if inflation and demand failed to cool.


Rapid rollout of clean technologies makes energy cheaper: IEA

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Rapid rollout of clean technologies makes energy cheaper: IEA

RIYADH: The rapid adoption of clean technologies can enhance the affordability of energy, according to a new report.

In its latest study, the International Energy Agency said that the key task for governments globally is to make clean energy technologies more accessible to those who may otherwise struggle with the upfront costs.

The energy agency noted that additional investments in the sector are needed to meet net-zero goals by 2050.

“The report shows how putting the world on track to meet net-zero emissions by 2050 requires additional investment but also reduces the operating costs of the global energy system by more than half over the next decade compared with a trajectory based on today’s policy settings. The net result is a more affordable and fairer energy system for consumers,” said the energy think tank.

Clean technologies are cost-competitive

According to IEA, clean energy technologies are already more cost-competitive over their lifespans than those reliant on conventional fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil, with solar photovoltaic and wind the cheapest options for power generation.

“In 2023, more than 95 percent of new utility-scale solar photovoltaic installations and new onshore wind capacity had lower generation costs than new coal and natural gas plants,” said the energy agency.

It added: ‘Solar PV module prices are now exceptionally low – they declined by 30 percent in 2023 – creating affordable openings for everything from utility-scale projects to home solar systems, with their value enhanced by cheaper batteries.”

The analysis highlighted that electric vehicles, although expensive compared to their traditional counterparts, will be cost-effective in the long run due to their low maintenance prices.

“Even when electric vehicles, including two-and three-wheelers, have higher upfront costs, which is not always the case, they typically result in savings due to lower operating expenses. Energy efficient appliances such as air conditioners provide similar cost benefits over their lifetimes,” noted IEA.

Clean energy transition dependent on upfront investments

The energy think tank further pointed out that a clean energy transition hinges on unlocking higher levels of upfront investment, specifically in developing economies.

According to the report, clean energy investments are lagging in emerging economies due to actual or perceived risks that hinder new projects and access to finance.

“Moreover, distortions in the present global energy system in the form of fossil fuel subsidies favor incumbent fuels, making investments in clean energy transitions more challenging,” said IEA.

It added: “Governments worldwide collectively spent around $620 billion in 2023 subsidizing the use of fossil fuels – far more than the $70 billion that was spent on support for consumer-facing clean energy investments.”

How clean energy technologies benefit customers

According to the analysis, the benefits of a faster energy transition and growing shares of renewables such as solar and wind power will help end customers, as clean technologies are less volatile than oil product prices.

IEA added that electricity is expected to overtake oil as the leading fuel source in final consumption by 2035.

“The data makes it clear that the quicker you move on clean energy transitions, the more cost-effective it is for governments, businesses, and households,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

He added: “If policymakers and industry leaders put off action and spending today, we will all end up paying more tomorrow. The first-of-a-kind global analysis in our new report shows that the way to make energy more affordable for more people is to speed up transitions, not slow them down. But much more needs to be done to help poorer households, communities and countries to get a foothold in the new clean energy economy.”

Policy intervention crucial to quicken energy transition

The energy agency further noted that incentives and greater support, mainly targeted at more disadvantaged households, can improve the uptake of clean energy technologies in the coming years.

According to IEA, incentivizing clean energy technologies will help consumers fully reap the benefits of these renewables and the cost savings, along with supporting efforts to reach international energy and climate goals.

The report suggested additional measures governments can take to accelerate the use of clean technologies, including delivering energy efficiency retrofit programs to low-income households, obliging utilities to fund more efficient heating and cooling packages, and providing affordable green transport options.

“Policy intervention will be crucial to address the stark inequalities that already exist in the current energy system, where affordable and sustainable energy technologies are out of reach for many people,” said IEA.

The release added: “The most fundamental inequities are faced by the almost 750 million people in emerging and developing economies who lack access to electricity, and the more than 2 billion people without clean cooking technologies and fuels.”

However, the energy think tank warned that the risk of price shocks does not disappear in clean energy transitions, and governments should continue to be vigilant about new dangers that could affect energy security and affordability.

According to IEA, geopolitical tensions remain significant potential drivers of volatility, both in traditional fuels and, more indirectly, in clean energy supply chains.

Furthermore, the shift to a more electrified energy system could bring a new set of hazards into play that are more local and regional, especially if investments in grids, flexibility, and demand response fall behind.

“Power systems are vulnerable to an increase in extreme weather events and cyberattacks, making adequate investments in resilience and digital security crucial,” IEA concluded.

In an additional report released in May, the agency revealed that ensuring a reliable and diversified supply of energy transition minerals is crucial to achieving net-zero targets.

The study also noted that the market size of key energy transition minerals is expected to double by 2040, reaching $770 billion.


Aramco completes acquisition of 40% stake in Gas & Oil Pakistan

Updated 23 min 21 sec ago
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Aramco completes acquisition of 40% stake in Gas & Oil Pakistan

RIYADH: Energy giant Saudi Aramco has completed the acquisition of a 40 percent equity stake in Gas & Oil Pakistan as the company continues its global retail expansion. 

The acquisition, first announced in December 2023, represents Aramco’s first downstream retail investment in Pakistan and signals the firm’s growing presence in high-value markets, the company said in a press statement. 

“Our global retail expansion is gaining pace and this acquisition is an important next step on our journey. Through our strategic partnership with GO, we look forward to supplying Aramco’s high-quality products and services to valued customers in Pakistan,” said Yasser Mufti, executive vice president of products and customers at Saudi Aramco. 

He added: “We are also delighted to welcome another high-caliber addition to Aramco’s growing network of global partners, and look forward to combining our resources and expertise to unlock new opportunities and further grow the Aramco brand overseas.” 

In March, Saudi Aramco acquired a 100 percent equity stake in Esmax Distribucion SpA, a leading diversified downstream fuels and lubricants retailer in Chile. 

On May 30, the energy giant said that it plans to sell 1.545 billion shares worth more than $10 billion. 

In a statement, the company announced a “secondary public offering of 1.545 billion shares,” with an expected price range between SR26.70 and SR29 ($7 to $7.70).

The sale on the Saudi stock exchange, which represents approximately 0.64 percent of the company’s issued shares, will commence on June 2. 

On May 12, Saudi Aramco revealed that its net profit for the first quarter of this year reached $27.27 billion, representing a rise of 2.04 percent compared to the last three months of 2023. 

According to a statement, the oil firm’s total revenue for the three months to the end of March stood at $107.21 billion, with the total operating income reaching $58.88 billion.  

In April, a report released by Brand Finance revealed that Saudi Aramco has maintained its position as the Middle East’s most valuable brand, with a value of $41.5 billion. 

According to the analysis, the energy giant continued to dominate the region despite an 8 percent drop in value, driven by a fall in crude oil prices and lower sales volumes.


Oil Update - crude slips after Fed signals no rush to cut rates as key US inflation data awaited

Updated 31 May 2024
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Oil Update - crude slips after Fed signals no rush to cut rates as key US inflation data awaited

HOUSTON/BEIJING: Oil prices fell in Asia on Friday as comments from a Federal Reserve official bolstered expectations of rates staying higher for longer, a view that will be tested later in the day with a keenly-awaited US inflation report, according to Reuters. 


The market, which is waiting on a weekend OPEC+ decision on production cuts, was weighed down in overnight trade by a surprise build in US gasoline stocks.

Brent futures were down 3 cents, or 0.04 percent, to $81.83 per barrel at 9:01 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents, or 0.13 percent, to $77.81.


Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said she is still worried about upside risks to inflation despite recent easing, warning that the US central bank needs to be flexible and keep “all options on the table” as it watches data and determines how to respond.


“It’s really important that we don’t lock into any particular path for monetary policy,” Logan said at an event in El Paso, Texas. “I think it’s too soon to really be thinking about rate cuts.”


Markets are cautious ahead of the release of a key gauge of US inflation on Friday, said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist with IG. The April report on personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation index, is due later in the global day.


The oil market has been under pressure in recent weeks over the prospect of US borrowing costs staying higher for longer, which could potentially tie down funds and hurt crude consumption.


Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell 4.2 million barrels to 454.7 million barrels in the week ending on May 24, the Energy Information Administration said on May 30, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 million-barrel draw.


Gasoline inventories, however, rose in the US against an expectation that demand would be higher ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend, which signals the start of the summer driving season. Stocks were up 2 million barrels for the week to 228.8 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 400,000-barrel draw. ​


Elsewhere, OPEC+ is working on a complex deal to be agreed at its meeting on June 2 that would allow the group to extend some of its deep oil production cuts into 2025, three sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said on May 30.


“A significant driver for oil prices ahead will revolve around the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend,” Yeap said. “Any further cuts may be unlikely and will be seen as a huge surprise.”


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, are currently cutting output by 5.86 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7 percent of global demand. 


GCC countries to lead Mideast energy transition 

Updated 30 May 2024
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GCC countries to lead Mideast energy transition 

  • Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman to account for two-third of region’s solar capacity

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are set to lead the Middle East’s solar transition thanks to several key factors, according to a new report.

In its latest analysis, Norwegian business intelligence and research company Rystad Energy stated that solar power is becoming increasingly important in the energy policies of Middle Eastern countries.

As the cheapest energy source, solar photovoltaics in Saudi Arabia has achieved a world record-low levelized cost of electricity of $10.4 per megawatt-hour, the report stated. It further explained that this is due to factors such as low hurdle rates, large-scale projects, and declining hardware prices, as well as low labor costs and high solar irradiance.
“The region has exceptional solar energy potential, receiving more than 2,000 kilowatt-hours per sq. m. annually in solar irradiation in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman,” the report stated.
The total solar capacity in the Middle East at the end of 2023 exceeded 16 gigawatts and is expected to approach 23 GW by the end of 2024, the report added.
Rystad Energy’s projections indicate that by 2030, the capacity will surpass 100 GW, with green hydrogen projects contributing an annual growth rate of 30 percent.
The report stated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are on track to collectively account for nearly two third of the region’s total solar capacity by the end of the decade.
By 2050, renewable sources, including hydro, solar, and wind, are expected to constitute 70 percent of the Middle East’s power generation mix, a significant leap from 5 percent at the end of 2023, the report stated.
Despite this surge, the region will rely heavily on natural gas in the short term, with usage peaking around 2030.
The report added that at the end of 2023, 93 percent of the Middle East’s power generation was from fossil fuels, with renewables at 3 percent and nuclear and hydro at 2 percent each.
By 2030, 30 percent of installed capacity is expected from renewables, potentially reaching 75 percent by 2050.
Rystad Energy predicts battery energy storage will grow significantly in the 2030s, supporting the transition to solar and wind power. The share of gas in power generation is expected to decrease from 74 percent in 2023 to 22 percent by 2050.


Saudi Manpower Solutions Co. eyes expansion following its public listing

Updated 30 May 2024
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Saudi Manpower Solutions Co. eyes expansion following its public listing

RIYADH: Various sectors across different parts of Saudi Arabia will soon have greater and easy access to manpower as the country’s first service provider eyes expansion with its initial public offering.

Speaking to Arab News, Abdullah Al-Timyat, CEO of Saudi Manpower Solutions Co., known as SMASCO, said the IPO will help propel SMASCO within the Saudi market, drive growth initiatives, and fortify its presence and stakeholders’ trust.

Al-Timyat said the IPO proceeds will not be utilized for internal operations but will be earmarked for strategic growth initiatives to expand the company’s footprint across the Kingdom’s diverse market. 

He added the company’s capital-light model, fortified by no debt and robust cash management, positions it for agile expansion. “We have zero debt and funding. We have strong cash management, and we have enough internal funds for our operations. So, the IPO will enable SMASCO in its future steps and strategic direction in expanding within the Saudi market, reaching new geographic cities and regions within Saudi Arabia.”

With an eye on deepening market penetration, Al-Timyat outlined SMASCO’s strategic direction, leveraging the IPO’s support to enhance brand awareness and stakeholders’ trust.

“We will even go deeper … within specific sectors, in business industry and professional manpower, depending on a more trusted bond that we have available because of the IPO and the support that we will have.”

The executive outlined the company’s current focus on the Kingdom’s market, emphasizing its vast potential and opportunities for manpower companies, including SMASCO.

He also underscored the entity’s mature model and expertise in technologies, which position it to potentially expand into new markets in the future. While there are no immediate plans to venture beyond Saudi Arabia, SMASCO remains prepared to seize opportunities should they arise, he said.

Looking ahead, the CEO highlighted artificial intelligence’s transformative potential emphasizing its role in enhancing efficiency and service delivery. 

He said: “AI and advanced technology is an opportunity for manpower companies. This is how we see it in SMASCO, this will provide us more opportunities, a faster a road to (achieve) our objectives operationally, financially and even for our customers.”

Al-Timyat highlighted the pivotal role of Vision 2030 benchmarks in providing clarity and direction to SMASCO’s future endeavors.

“Since the government launched Vision 2030, we have a clarity where we are going and this makes it easier for any industry, for any investor. We see a persistence of execution by the government, which we have never witnessed before and this is actually aligned with what we are seeing.”

This synergy between technological innovation and national objectives supports industry advancement. The executive noted that it is set to drive economic growth and societal development in alignment with the Kingdom’s ambitious vision.

Al-Timyat also outlined the global demand for various industries, including medical, logistics, tourism, and entertainment, which are also prevalent in Saudi Arabia.

Each of these industries requires specific qualities for talents and specialized manpower services to address their unique needs, he noted.

The executive said SMASCO, specialized in manpower solutions, has created subsectors within its team to cater to diverse industries.

This focus on specialization enables SMASCO to provide high-quality services that align with the economy, market trends, and specific requirements of each industry.