Political battles rage amid economic crisis

The announcement by the Election Commission of Pakistan to postpone elections to the Punjab assembly came as little surprise. There were signs aplenty that this was on the cards. Since the provincial assembly was dissolved by the opposition in mid-January, the ruling coalition and its nominees in the Punjab government were dragging their feet over announcing an election date, making it apparent they didn’t want elections. But President Arif Alvi’s intervention and the March 1 Supreme Court ruling forced the ECP to announce April 30 as the date for the election. Senior ministers of the coalition government however, began to publicly assert that elections to provincial and national assemblies should be held simultaneously, suggesting that provincial polls should wait till the federal legislature completed its full term in August 2023.

As justification to delay the provincial poll to October 8, the ECP cited “the heightened security situation and recent terrorist wave” in Punjab and therefore its inability to secure the help of civil and armed forces personnel for election duties. It also cited the Finance Ministry as conveying it could not release funds for the election due to the “financial crunch and unprecedented economic crisis” in the country. Consequently, the ECP was unable to secure the assistance of “federal and provincial governments and all executive authorities including law enforcement agencies” for the “conduct of free, fair and transparent elections” in Punjab. This sets a dangerous precedent as such disingenuous justifications – lack of money and security – can be used to suspend elections and democracy for as long as is politically expedient.

The decision was condemned by opposition leader Imran Khan as a violation of the Constitution but welcomed by the PDM government. Several members of the legal community criticised the ECP for the constitutional transgression and for defying the Supreme Court ruling. The Supreme Court Bar Association also slammed the decision describing it as “an absolute abrogation of the Constitution” and saying the commission had “acted in excess of its jurisdiction and breached its constitutional mandate.”

This issue has all the makings of a constitutional crisis.

Maleeha Lodhi

Soon after the ECP decision, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Ghulam Ali wrote to the Commission proposing the same date for holding elections in his province as well. Meanwhile, the postponement provoked another clash between the Presidency and the government. In a letter written by President Alvi to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, he called for implementation of the Supreme Court’s March 1 order and to hold Punjab elections as announced earlier on April 30. He also said a “flagrant violation of the Constitution” had been committed by executive authorities and government departments by not extending necessary support to the ECP for elections. Sharif responded by an equally strongly-worded letter castigating the President for his “partisan attitude” and claiming he was well aware of his constitutional responsibilities. 

This issue has all the makings of a constitutional crisis with the political battle now expected to play out in the Supreme court, which has started hearings on the petition filed by Khan’s party.  The apex court’s judgement will determine whether ECP’s postponement has any legal basis. But for now, it has plunged the country into another political crisis. The spate of cases filed against opposition leader Imran Khan under terrorism laws as well as sweeping arrests of his party members have made the political situation more combustible. But it did not deter Khan from holding a huge public rally in Lahore, which the government tried its best to stop his party supporters from attending.

All this when the focus of the PDM government should be on the economic crisis rather than on containing Khan. Delay over concluding the IMF deal is continuing to intensify uncertainty and make markets and the business community nervous. Concerns persist that the country might default on its external obligations. The government’s efforts to secure financing from friendly countries have yet to bear fruit. The Fund wants these funds to come through – in view of the large financing gap of $6 billion this fiscal year – before the bailout programme is restarted. The country’s foreign exchange reserves of just over $4 billion remain at a precarious level, enough to cover less than a  month of imports. A new populist measure announced by the government in the form of a petrol subsidy scheme for low-income consumers has created further problems with the IMF. 

In fact, the government’s irresponsible statements have complicated relations with the Fund. First, the finance minister suggested that delay on the IMF deal had to do with pressure on Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programme. This was publicly rebuked by an IMF official who said there was no truth to this or any insinuated link between the IMF deal and Pakistan’s nuclear programme. This forced finance minister Ishaq Dar to walk back from his earlier statement. Then came the reference in the ECP’s election postponement order about the finance ministry conveying its inability to provide funds for elections “under compulsion by the IMF programme that has set targets for maintenance of fiscal discipline.” This was also rubbished by the Fund representative who said “decisions regarding the constitutionality, feasibility, and timing of the provincial and general elections rest solely with Pakistan's institutions. There is no requirement under Pakistan's EFF-supported program which could interfere with Pakistan’s ability to undertake constitutional activities.” It was for the government to  “reprioritize spending and/or raise additional revenues to ensure constitutional activities can take place.” But the embarrassment this caused to the government was ignored by ministers who continued to focus their attention and energies on countering Khan rather than addressing an economy on the brink. 

This makes the outlook a troubled one for the country’s political and economic stability. It holds out the prospect of greater turmoil and upheaval with grave consequences for an economy in the critical ward. Pakistan’s political leaders seem oblivious to the fact that if the economy tanks, everything else will be in vain.

- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha