Oil Updates: Crude price falls; Goldman Sachs cuts Brent oil forecasts 

Brent crude futures for May settlement fell $2.32, or 3.2 percent, to $70.65 a barrel at 10:10 Saudi time. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 20 March 2023
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Oil Updates: Crude price falls; Goldman Sachs cuts Brent oil forecasts 

RIYADH: Oil prices fell on Monday to their lowest in 15 months on concerns risks in the global banking sector may cause a recession that would lead fuel demand to decline and ahead of a potential hike in US interest rates this week. 

Brent crude futures for May settlement fell $2.32, or 3.2 percent, to $70.65 a barrel at 10:10 Saudi time. The contract earlier declined to as low as $70.56, its lowest since December 2021. 

Last week, Brent fell nearly 12 percent, its biggest weekly fall since December. 

US West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery was at $64.59 a barrel, down $2.15, or 3.2 percent. It earlier fell to $64.51, also its lowest since December 2021. The contract declined by 13 percent last week, its biggest weekly drop since last April.

Kuwait Oil Co. declares a state of emergency  

Kuwait Oil Co. on Monday declared a state of emergency due to an oil leak in the west of the country. 

Production was not affected because of the oil leak and there were no injuries reported, the company said in a statement. 

Iraq, OPEC stress need to coordinate to stabilize prices 

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Haitham Al Ghai, Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stressed the need to coordinate among oil-exporting nations to ensure prices do not fluctuate and impact both exporter and consumer countries, the Iraqi government said in a statement. 

Iraq is one of the founding members of OPEC. 

Meanwhile, Iraqi oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani on Sunday said his country is committed to maintaining its 220,000 barrel per day oil output in line with OPEC+ rates. 

Speaking during a conference in Baghdad, Abdel-Ghani also said Iraq is ready to increase production if required to do so by OPEC+. 

"We obliged some oil companies operating in the south to cut production to come in line with OPEC+'s agreed rates," he added. 

Goldman Sachs cuts Brent oil forecasts  

Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for Brent crude oil futures over the weekend after prices slumped 15 percent since early March on banking and recession fears. 

The investment bank is now expecting Brent to average $94 a barrel in the next 12 months and $97 in the second half of 2024, down from $100 previously, it said in a note dated March 18. 

“Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” the bank’s analysts said. 

“Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.” 

The bank has also lowered demand projections for Europe and North America in 2023 while raising that for China. 

This led to a 600,000 barrel per day cut for 2024 estimates while keeping the 2023 demand forecast unchanged. 

Shipments stopped at TotalEnergies' refineries  

Shipments of refined products from oil major TotalEnergies' French sites were blocked on Monday for the 13th day of strike action, while some refineries were operating at a reduced flow, a company spokesperson said. 

The industrial action is part of the nationwide movement against pension system changes lifting the retirement age two years to 64 that was forced through parliament without a vote last week. 

Production at the Normandy and Feyzin refineries was reduced on Monday as deliveries were blocked, with the Donges and La Mede refineries also seeing blocked shipments as the latter are offline for maintenance, the company said. 

(With inputs from Reuters)


India and US release a framework for an interim trade agreement to reduce Trump tariffs

Updated 58 min 25 sec ago
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India and US release a framework for an interim trade agreement to reduce Trump tariffs

  • Under the deal, tariffs on goods from India would be lowered to 18 percent, from 25 percent, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil, Trump had said.

NEW DELHI: India and the United States released a framework for an interim trade agreement to lower tariffs on Indian goods, which Indian opposition accused of favoring Washington.
The joint statement, released Friday, came after US President Donald Trump announced his plan last week to reduce import tariffs on the South Asian country, six months after imposing steep taxes to press New Delhi to cut its reliance on cheap Russian crude.
Under the deal, tariffs on goods from India would be lowered to 18 percent, from 25 percent, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil, Trump had said.
The two countries called the agreement “reciprocal and mutually beneficial” and expressed commitment to work toward a broader trade deal that “will include additional market access commitments and support more resilient supply chains.” The framework said that more negotiations will be needed to formalize the agreement.
India would also “eliminate or reduce tariffs” on all US industrial goods and a wide range of food and agricultural products, Friday’s statement said.
The US president had said that India would start to reduce its import taxes on US goods to zero and buy $500 billion worth of American products over five years, part of the Trump administration’s bid to seek greater market access and zero tariffs on almost all American exports.
Trump also signed an executive order on Friday to revoke a separate 25 percent tariff on Indian goods he imposed last year.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi thanked Trump “for his personal commitment to robust ties.”
“This framework reflects the growing depth, trust and dynamism of our partnership,” Modi said on social media, adding it will “further deepen investment and technology partnerships between us.”
India’s opposition political parties have largely criticized the deal, saying it heavily favors the US and negatively impacts sensitive sectors such as agriculture. In the past, New Delhi had opposed tariffs on sectors such as agriculture and dairy, which employ the bulk of the country’s population.
Meanwhile, Piyush Goyal, Indian Trade Minister, said the deal protects “sensitive agricultural and dairy products” including maize, wheat, rice, ethanol, tobacco, and some vegetables.
“This (agreement) will open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters,” Goyal said in a social media post, referring to the US annual GDP. He said the increase in exports was likely to create hundreds of thousands of new job opportunities.
Goyal also said tariffs will go down to zero on a wide range of Indian goods exported to the US, including generic pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds, and aircraft parts, further enhancing the country’s export competitiveness.
India and the European Union recently reached a free trade agreement that could affect as many as 2 billion people after nearly two decades of negotiations. That deal would enable free trade on almost all goods between the EU’s 27 members and India, covering everything from textiles to medicines, and bringing down high import taxes for European wine and cars.
India also signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Oman in December and concluded talks for a free trade deal with New Zealand.