Doubts and difficulties: Elections in Pakistan

Two provincial legislatures of Pakistan – belonging to Punjab and KP – were dissolved recently and under the Constitution should be elected through fresh elections in 90 days. The terms of the new assemblies will be five years. 

At the same time, by-elections on over 90 national assembly seats vacated by the opposition PTI legislators are also due to be held – and those to be chosen will remain in office only till August – when the constitutional life of the incumbent assemblies comes to an end. 

This is the first time in the country’s history that general elections will be held in two provinces and by-elections in a large number of seats of the lower house of the bicameral parliament.  

This situation has landed the multi-party ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a difficult situation.  While the holding of the elections and by-elections is a constitutional obligation, the economy has nosedived and can’t afford to spare billions of rupees required for the purpose. The challenge becomes more serious as on the completion of the tenure of the remaining assemblies in August, the government will have to hold the same exercise across the country, excluding the two provinces. 

The more painful aspect of the challenge is that those at the helm don’t have the capacity to grapple with the multiple problems the world’s only Islamic nuclear power has been passing through. The unity needed to deal with the challenges is totally absent. 

It appears it will be impossible for the relevant authorities to meet the constitutional obligation of holding elections within the timeline given by the Constitution. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has given two different options for these elections in April.

However, there are speculations that the government may have to delay the process on one pretext or the other. The developments taking place on the political scene also vindicate this assertion. 

The idea of delaying the elections also came under discussion at a high-level meeting in Islamabad on Thursday, although there was a difference of opinion on the subject. 

The PTI and PML-Q don’t expect fair and free elections in Punjab in the presence of the caretaker chief minister for Punjab, media mogul Mohsin Naqvi. His appointment has already been challenged in court. Former president Asif Zardari treats him like his son and he is married in the family of the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, who lead the PML-Q. Since rivals-turned-allies PPP and PML-N are now part of the incumbent coalition, Naqvi is also acceptable to the PML-N. 

The PTI and PML-Q think that in the presence of Naqvi – who will have to come up to the expectation of the parties that nominated him for the post, free and fair elections cannot be expected in the country’s most populous province. And everyone knows that the results of the coming elections and the government formed as a result thereof, will play an important role in the elections to be held after August.

That Ramadan is also starting towards the end of March will make electioneering in April very difficult, if not impossible.

Ashraf Mumtaz

There are also indications that elections in the two provinces will be held on the basis of a census, which will not be possible till April. 

That Ramadan is also starting towards the end of March will make electioneering in April very difficult, if not impossible. 

It is said that the government may also impose an economic emergency to delay polls. Also, the court may be approached for the purpose.      

The arrest of central PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry and the humiliating treatment he was given while in police and court custody added to the bitterness between the opposition and the government. The PTI also apprehends that its chairman Imran Khan is likely to be arrested any time. Although there are cases against the former prime minister, his arrest in the prevailing situation, no matter how justified, will not be tolerated by PTI supporters and they may resort to violence. 

Another factor that raises doubts about holding elections on time is the time factor. The parties in the ruling coalition cannot afford to hold elections in the present situation when inflation is beyond their control and the energy crisis has made the lives of common people difficult. On the other hand, the following of Imran Khan is growing with the passage of time, which is a band omen for the ruling coalition.  

They will look to delay the polls to a time when public opinion turns in their favor. 

Before expecting a ‘positive’ outcome from the elections, the ruling coalition will have to take a number of steps to make people’s lives easier. And that will not be possible in a short time span.

Patriotism demands that in view of the precarious situation that has plagued Pakistan, all parties should review their policies, sink their differences, and agree to form a national government. The idea of holding elections in the near future should be shelved for the time being. 

The proposed national government should work day and night to navigate the country out of the crippling situation it is caught in. Once things improve, the schedule for the next elections may be worked out through mutual consultations. 

But the idea cannot be implemented unless Pakistan’s powerful military establishment plays a role and facilitates an agreement from all sides.  

Needless to say, the idea will also be in Pakistan’s interests from the defence point of view. The armed forces alone or lethal weapons purchased after spending billions of dollars cannot defend the country unless the political parties change their attitudes according to the requirements of the situation. 

Elections in the prevailing situation will only add to the confrontation and bitterness. They will not solve any problem as any party losing the battle will not accept the results and this will lay a foundation for a new controversy.

— The writer is a senior and veteran journalist with a career spanning 40 years with major national and international newspapers.