KARACHI: Inflation is expected to remain within the 5-6 percent range in January, Pakistan’s Finance Division said in its monthly economic outlook report on Tuesday, saying that the country’s economy is well positioned to sustain growth momentum in FY2026. 

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was recorded at 5.6 percent year-on-year (YoY) basis in December 2025 as compared to 6.1 percent in November 2025 and 4.1 percent in December 2024. 

“Inflation is expected to remain within the range of 5.0-6.0 percent in January,” the Finance Division said. 

“On the external front, the current account is projected to remain in a deficit; however, robust remittance inflows and steady performance in IT and services exports are likely to cushion external pressures.”

The report said that the “positive trajectory” of the economy reflects the impact of the government’s prudent policies, ongoing structural reforms and easing of monetary conditions due to subsiding inflationary pressures.

Earlier, Pakistan’s finance ministry adviser Khurram Schehzad said S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest macroeconomic forecast for Pakistan broadly aligns with projections issued by the State Bank of Pakistan, signaling easing inflation, manageable external balances and a gradual recovery in economic growth.

The assessment came amid stabilizing macroeconomic indicators after Pakistan went through a prolonged financial crisis marked by record inflation of 38 percent, depleted foreign exchange reserves and repeated balance-of-payments pressures, culminating in emergency support from the International Monetary Fund.

Tighter monetary policy, fiscal consolidation and external financing have since helped stabilize prices and ease pressure on the external account, prompting more measured assessments from international credit rating agencies.

“S&P’s projections broadly align with SBP’s outlook, with slight differences on growth and the current account but a shared assessment of easing inflation and gradual economic improvement,” Schehzad said in a statement.

According to S&P, inflation is expected to average 5.1 percent in 2026 and edge up slightly to 5.6 percent in 2027, staying within the SBP’s projected range of 5 percent to 7 percent over the next two years.

On the external front, S&P forecast a current account deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2026, broadly in line with the central bank’s expectation that the deficit will remain between 0 percent and 1 percent of GDP in the fiscal year.

Economic growth is projected to strengthen gradually, with S&P forecasting real GDP growth of 3.5 percent in fiscal year 2026, rising to 4.4 percent the following year. The SBP has projected growth of 3.75 percent to 4.75 percent for FY26.

Both S&P and SBP projections echo the government’s assessment that macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing, as Pakistan seeks to attract foreign investment and push toward export-led growth.