Isolating the Taliban: An error of judgment

Prospects of an end to the suffering of Afghanistan, after 40 years of conflict, seems to be receding as great power strategic contestations once again supervene on the situation. The chorus in favor of isolating and sanctioning a Taliban-led Afghanistan is becoming louder with scant regard to the impact this will have on ordinary people. 

The US has frozen some $9 billion of Afghanistan currency reserves making it impossible for the Taliban interim government to organize and run state institutions. The World Bank and IMF will have no truck with the new Afghan government. 

A systematic coercive campaign to ensure the continued ostracization of the Taliban is being organized ostensibly to modify their behavior. Calls for an inclusive government, respect for human rights and in particular the rights of women and girls as well as eliminating Daesh, Al Qaeda and other militant organizations, are among the key conditions for recognition.

In the meanwhile, India and some other quarters within and outside the region are expending considerable resources to set up what is called a ‘national resistance’ to Taliban rule by inducting erstwhile Northern Alliance elements, possibly from bases in Tajikistan. 

Not all regional states are comfortable with the ‘uncertainties’ epitomized by the Taliban, which is a fiercely nationalist and independent entity that has proven its mettle on the battlefield. The Taliban are no-one’s proxy. And that has unnerved those who have been for long accustomed to utilizing the territory of Afghanistan for their narrow political games that have actually nothing to do with Afghanistan per se. 

As an immediate neighbor, Pakistan has to take an objective view. Yet, it has refrained from formally recognizing the Taliban interim government.

Salman Bashir

Some notable scholars and experts have expressed the apprehension that Afghanistan may be torn by the imposition of a new Cold War between major powers. The recent Quad Summit took the lead in setting the elements of a broad framework of how the international community and western powers in particular should deal with the Taliban. Undoubtedly, the focus is to isolate the Taliban. The Quad statement implicitly brings consideration of Afghanistan into the macro spectrum of the so-called Indo-Pacific – which signifies the containment of China. 

Regional states have yet to go beyond ritual solidarity with the people of Afghanistan. A solid regional consensus on recognition of the Taliban government is not likely to come about soon. Anger, rancor and instincts of revenge is driving policies that blindside reason, logic and rationality. The guilt by association maxim may be used to bring pressure on anyone that wishes to help Afghanistan at this crucial juncture. 

Pakistan has been advocating ‘engagement’ with the Taliban as the way forward. Pakistan, China and Russia among some others continue to maintain their diplomatic presence in Kabul. Pakistan has helped with evacuations from Afghanistan and flown in humanitarian supplies for the people. As an immediate neighbor, Pakistan has to take an objective view. Yet, it has refrained from formally recognizing the Taliban interim government and continues to call upon the Taliban to make their government more inclusive and abide by their commitments on general amnesty, human rights and counter-terrorism. 

The Taliban are autonomous and brook no outside interference in their internal affairs. Their priority is to restore peace and tranquility and maintain unity in their ranks. They desire to establish cooperative links with the international community. If not encouraged and incentivized in this direction, they may opt to go it alone. And it is unreasonable to expect that they will not accord importance to the views of all constituents of their movement. 

In some ways, a rural-urban divide is apparent in Afghanistan. The elite. western-educated class centered in Kabul and the Afghan diaspora in the west is a distinct entity that cannot relate to the rural tribal majority that is represented by the Taliban. These two streams do not mix and the former are ever inclined to offer ready services to anti-Taliban powers. 

In short, a grave error of judgment is being made again, out of ignorance or opportunism or global geo-politics, to isolate a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan from the international mainstream. This carries immense costs for ordinary people and may actually jeopardize the existence of Afghanistan as a state with incalculable consequences for regional peace and stability. 

*Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK