DUBAI: An OPEC+ panel has warned of “significant uncertainties” and the risk of an oil glut after April 2022, according to an internal report, building a case for extending the current deal that has maintained curbs on supply.
The panel, known as the Joint Technical Committee, sees an overhang of crude by the end of 2022 under different scenarios looking at supply and demand in the oil market, the report said.
The report showed that while the oil market was in deficit in the short term, a glut was on the horizon after OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, unwinds cuts that now stand at just under 6 million barrels per day (bpd) from April next year.
Under a base scenario, inventories in OECD industrialized economies would stand at 96 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average for the third quarter and at 125 million barrels below that average in the fourth quarter, the report said.
“In 2022, a significant increase is seen, leading to an overhang of 181 million barrels by the end of the year,” the report added.
The base case adopts global oil demand growth assumptions and non-OPEC supply growth from OPEC’s June monthly report, with a preliminary forecast for 2022.
The panel said it still forecast global oil demand growth of 6 million bpd in 2021, but it said there were downside risks.
It said demand could slow given “uncertainties associated with the divergent pace of the global economic recovery, emerging inflationary pressures, the surge in sovereign debt, the uneven vaccine rollout ..., as well as the widening spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.”
OPEC watchers said the group could leave production unchanged when ministers meet on Thursday or decide to boost output, possibly by more than 1 million bpd or by a more modest 0.5 million bpd.
OPEC+ sources said no unanimous decision or recommendation emerged from panel’s consultations on Tuesday.
OPEC+ panel sees risk of oil glut after April 2022, report says
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OPEC+ panel sees risk of oil glut after April 2022, report says
- The report showed that while the oil market was in deficit in the short term, a glut was on the horizon
Multilateralism strained, but global cooperation adapting: WEF report
DUBAI: Overall levels of international cooperation have held steady in recent years, with smaller and more innovative partnerships emerging, often at regional and cross-regional levels, according to a World Economic Forum report.
The third edition of the Global Cooperation Barometer was launched on Thursday, ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos from Jan. 19 to 23.
“The takeaway of the Global Cooperation Barometer is that while multilateralism is under real strain, cooperation is not ending, it is adapting,” Ariel Kastner, head of geopolitical agenda and communications at WEF, told Arab News.
Developed alongside McKinsey & Company, the report uses 41 metrics to track global cooperation in five areas: Trade and capital; innovation and technology; climate and natural capital; health and wellness; and peace and security.
The pace of cooperation differs across sectors, with peace and security seeing the largest decline. Cooperation weakened across every tracked metric as conflicts intensified, military spending rose and multilateral mechanisms struggled to contain crises.
By contrast, climate and nature, alongside innovation and technology, recorded the strongest increases.
Rising finance flows and global supply chains supported record deployment of clean technologies, even as progress remained insufficient to meet global targets.
Despite tighter controls, cross-border data flows, IT services and digital connectivity continued to expand, underscoring the resilience of technology cooperation amid increasing restrictions.
The report found that collaboration in critical technologies is increasingly being channeled through smaller, aligned groupings rather than broad multilateral frameworks.
This reflects a broader shift, Kastner said, highlighting the trend toward “pragmatic forms of collaboration — at the regional level or among smaller groups of countries — that advance both shared priorities and national interests.”
“In the Gulf, for example, partnerships and investments with Asia, Europe and Africa in areas such as energy, technology and infrastructure, illustrate how focused collaboration can deliver results despite broader, global headwinds,” he said.
Meanwhile, health and wellness and trade and capital remained flat.
Health outcomes have so far held up following the pandemic, but sharp declines in development assistance are placing growing strain on lower- and middle-income countries.
In trade, cooperation remained above pre-pandemic levels, with goods volumes continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace than the global economy, while services and selected capital flows showed stronger momentum.
The report also highlights the growing role of smaller, trade-dependent economies in sustaining global cooperation through initiatives such as the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership, launched in September 2025 by the UAE, New Zealand, Singapore and Switzerland.
Looking ahead, maintaining open channels of communication will be critical, Kastner said.
“Crucially, the building block of cooperation in today’s more uncertain era is dialogue — parties can only identify areas of common ground by speaking with one another.”
