Quad factor in regional security
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The Joe Biden administration struggles to revitalize the United States' ties with friends and partners to counterweight in global politics increasingly confident and assertive China. It is renewing and consolidating alliances because it views them as force multipliers. Currently, no country on earth has a network of alliances and partnerships like the US.
On March 12, 2021, President Joe Biden and prime ministers of Australia, India, and Japan virtually convened the first-ever summit-level meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad. It is seen as a new kind of the 21st-century security alliance to take a greater role in fighting nontraditional and traditional security risks.
The Quad, which involves diplomatic and military arrangements, was initiated in 2007 by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, with the support of US Vice President Dick Cheney, Australian Prime Minister John Howard and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. It was re-booted in November 2017, during the 31st ASEAN Summit in Manila.
While Quad’s member-states identified seven core subjects for cooperation — rules-based order in Asia, freedom of navigation and over-flight in the maritime commons, respect for international law, enhancing connectivity and maritime security, the North Korean threat, non-proliferation, and terrorism — countering China ranks high on the group's agenda.
The Biden administration described last week's Quad meeting as "historic" and presented the alliance as a vital arena for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. In a joint statement, Quad leaders identified key challenges faced by the member-states in various domains such as health, economy, cyberspace, critical technologies, counterterrorism, quality infrastructure investment, humanitarian-assistance, disaster-relief, and maritime. They emphasized collaboration in maritime security “to meet challenges to the rules-based maritime order in the East and South China Seas.”
As Australia-India-Japan-US versus Pakistan-China alliances solidify, the balance of power and geopolitical competition will continue to be a defining characteristic of regional interactions in the future.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Quad’s reinvigoration increases its member states' security but decreases that of other stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly China, which has recently expanded its presence in the resources-rich South China Sea, to which several Southeast Asian nations have overlapping claims. The timing and circumstance of Quad's recent meeting can be interpreted as the first step towards the creation of an Asian NATO.
While the presence of Australia, Japan, and the US in Quad is seen as no challenge to Pakistan's interests, India in the alliance may pose one to its security.
Having a strategic rivalry with India, Pakistan cannot ignore Quad's consolidation, particularly the increasing significance of India in the Indo-Pacific region, which provides New Delhi with an opportunity to rise above its middle-power status.
Quad boosts India’s "Act East" and "Extended Neighborhood" policies. These coupled with the US Indo-Pacific strategy under the umbrella of the India-US military partnership seem detrimental for both Islamabad and Beijing, with which India has disputed borders.
Americans have been encouraging and assisting India to play a decisive role in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington has been also facilitating New Delhi to establish its supremacy in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
The Biden administration's investment in Quad to make it strong and effective adds fuel to strategic competition and strains political relations in the region. Increasing tensions between regional powers in the region directly undermine its military security, especially of smaller littoral states on the Indian Ocean.
Strategic trends in contemporary international politics indicate a hardening of geopolitical rivalry, contestation, and competition between the US and China. The international system's distribution of capabilities engenders a security dilemma between the two powers and spells the Thucydides Trap. This developing strategic rivalry has its regional repercussions in South Asia as the US and India increasingly focus on China's developing clout and lay the basis of a military and trade partnership.
As Australia-India-Japan-US versus Pakistan-China alliances solidify, the balance of power and geopolitical competition will continue to be a defining characteristic of regional interactions in the future.
– Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal
