Netanyahu weakening opponents ahead of latest Israeli vote
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Another milestone on the way to next month’s Israeli elections for the 24th Knesset was reached when the participating parties submitted their slates to the Central Elections Committee last Thursday. It is rather difficult to get carried away with joy at this demonstration of democracy, as this is the fourth time in two years that the electorate is being asked to choose its representatives, with the last three efforts all failing to produce a conclusive outcome. The results this time are expected to be as indecisive as on the previous occasions, leading to prolonged coalition negotiations with no satisfactory outcome or, worse, a government that is incapable of serving the interests of its citizens.
Filing candidate lists for the March 23 election officially signals the beginning of the campaign and clears the fog over who is throwing their hats into the ring, as well as what new alliances have been formed or old ones dissolved. This sheds some light on how the parties might fare at the ballot box and — with Israel’s complex multi-party system, in which no party has ever won an outright majority — allows us to assess the possible makeup of the next coalition government.
The traditional right-left classification of Israel’s political map is not necessarily relevant for the results of this election, though it will naturally affect the direction of the country if and when a government is formed. For now, the real battle is between two camps: One that supports another term for Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister and the other that rejects this option and promises not to sit with Netanyahu in the same government. Ideologically, some of the parties on either side of this divide have very little in common, but they might cooperate in the aftermath of the vote if only to see the back of the current prime minister.
It is mainly a schism between those who are personally and politically invested in a Netanyahu government and those who are adamant that every additional day of Netanyahu in power further damages the country, the democratic system, and the rule of law. To the opposition to Netanyahu serving as prime minister while he is a defendant in three very serious corruption cases can be added the horrendous manner in which the current government has failed to properly deal with the coronavirus disease, which has thus far claimed the lives of more than 5,000 Israelis.
As is the custom in Israel, the weeks leading up to the parties’ filing of their lists are all about positioning in terms of forging new partnerships and alliances, and being slotted into a realistic position on one of these slates, meaning vision and ideas are pushed to one side. But now that this preliminary saga is over, Israelis still hope that, between now and polling day, those vying for their vote will concentrate their efforts on demonstrating what distinguishes their policies from those of their opponents — but don’t hold your breath.
All the signs are that this is going to be another campaign of smears and slurs rather than a proper nationwide debate on the issues that are important to the public. Much of the former is being orchestrated by Netanyahu, who knows that, the dirtier the campaign and the less discussion there is of his record or his suitability for the country’s top job, the better chance he has of retaining power.
This is going to be another campaign of smears and slurs rather than a proper nationwide debate on the issues that are important.
Yossi Mekelberg
It would be unwise to bet against Netanyahu forming and heading the next coalition. He has already done what he does best: Fatally damaging and dismantling his political opponents, especially those who pose a serious threat to his premiership. He is a cynical employer of the divide and rule tactic, ruthlessly exploiting the naivety, the inflated egos and the rigidity of those who seek to challenge him, whether from within his own party or from the outside. By previously luring half of the Blue and White alliance, led by Benny Gantz, to join the government on a false promise of rotating the premiership, he not only split the party but destroyed it. The leaders of a group that, only last March, finished neck and neck with Netanyahu’s Likud are now barely on speaking terms or have quit politics altogether, and are not seen as contenders for power.
Similarly deceitful is the way Netanyahu has successfully managed to break up the Joint Arab List, an alliance of four Palestinian parties that, by running together, managed to gain a record 15 MKs in the most recent election. Netanyahu identified the weakest link in that alliance, the Ra’am Party led by Mansour Abbas, who — like so many before him — fell for the prime minister’s blandishments and promises. If recent opinion polls can be relied on, the representation of Palestinian citizens of Israel in the next Knesset will be significantly reduced as a result of there being two lists competing for their votes.
The left and center-left continue their rearguard struggle to stay relevant and, for some, to even cross the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent. There are signs of recovery in Labor under their new and impressive leader Merav Michaeli, but her failure to join forces with some like-minded parties while persuading major figures of this camp to stay on the sidelines and not put their names forward for election might cost this grouping quite a few seats. The main dilemma will emerge after next month’s election, when the left will have to choose between supporting a government without Netanyahu, but which they oppose ideologically, or stay in opposition and see another Netanyahu government supported by other parties that will possibly break their promises not to join forces with him.
In the topsy-turvy world of Israeli politics, with its endless mayhem and the electorate’s insistence on repeating voting patterns that always fail to produce a stable government, we can only expect more of the same next month, and quite possibly another election before very long.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.
Twitter: @YMekelberg
