Japan is likely to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19 through mass inoculations only months after the planned Tokyo Olympics, even though it has locked in the biggest quantity of vaccines in Asia, according to a London-based forecaster.
That would be a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who has pledged to have enough shots for the populace by the middle of 2021, as it trails most major economies in starting COVID-19 inoculations.
“Japan looks to be quite late in the game,” Rasmus Bech Hansen, the founder of British research firm Airfinity, told Reuters. “They’re dependent on importing many (vaccines) from the US And at the moment, it doesn’t seem very likely they will get very large quantities of for instance, the Pfizer vaccine.”
Hansen said Japan will not reach a 75% inoculation rate, a benchmark for herd immunity, until around October, about two months after the close of the Summer Games.
Japan has arranged to buy 314 million doses from Pfizer, Moderna Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc, and that would be more than enough for its population of 126 million.
But problems seen in vaccine rollouts elsewhere stir doubt that Japan will get those supplies on time.
Taro Kono, Japan’s vaccine program chief, said last week it would begin its first shots in February, starting with 10,000 medical workers, but he walked back on a goal to secure enough vaccine supplies by June.
Japan is particularly vulnerable because its initial inoculation plan is dependent on Pfizer doses, which are at risk of being taken back by US authorities to fight the pandemic there.
“There simply aren’t enough vaccines for all the countries that Pfizer made agreements with,” Hansen said.
“America needs 100 million more Pfizer vaccines to be on the safe side to reach their goals, and a lot of those 100 million would come from the Japan pile.”
Representatives from Pfizer and Japan’s health ministry did not immediately respond to Airfinity’s forecasts. Previously, Pfizer has stated that the company was working with Japanese regulators “to make COVID 19 vaccine doses available as quickly as possible to the people in Japan.”
Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in October, months after Olympics: researcher
Japan likely to hit COVID-19 herd immunity in October, months after Olympics: researcher
EU leaders to reassess US ties despite Trump U-turn on Greenland
- Diplomats stressed that, although Thursday’s emergency EU talks in Brussels would now lose some of their urgency, the longer-term issue of how to handle the relationship with the US remained
BRUSSELS: EU leaders will rethink their ties with the US at an emergency summit on Thursday after Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs and even military action to acquire Greenland badly shook confidence in the transatlantic relationship, diplomats said.
Trump abruptly stepped back on Wednesday from his threat of tariffs on eight European nations, ruled out using force to take Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark, and suggested a deal was in sight to end the dispute.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, welcoming Trump’s U-turn on Greenland, urged Europeans not to be too quick to write off the transatlantic partnership.
But EU governments remain wary of another change of mind by a mercurial president who is increasingly seen as a bully that Europe will have to stand up to, and they are focused on coming up with a longer-term plan on how to deal with the United States under this administration and possibly its successors too.
“Trump crossed the Rubicon. He might do it again. There is no going back to what it was. And leaders will discuss it,” one EU diplomat said, adding that the bloc needed to move away from its heavy reliance on the US in many areas.
“We need to try to keep him (Trump) close while working on becoming more independent from the US It is a process, probably a long one,” the diplomat said.
EU RELIANCE ON US
After decades of relying on the United States for defense within the NATO alliance, the EU lacks the needed intelligence, transport, missile defense and production capabilities to defend itself against a possible Russian attack. This gives the US substantial leverage.
The US is also Europe’s biggest trading partner, making the EU vulnerable to Trump’s policies of imposing tariffs to reduce Washington’s trade deficit in goods, and, as in the case of Greenland, to achieve other goals.
“We need to discuss where the red lines are, how we deal with this bully across the Atlantic, where our strengths are,” a second EU diplomat said.
“Trump says no tariffs today, but does that mean also no tariffs tomorrow, or will he again quickly change his mind? We need to discuss what to do then,” the second diplomat said.
The EU had been considering a package of retaliatory tariffs on 93 billion euros ($108.74 billion) on US imports or anti-coercive measures if Trump had gone ahead with his own tariffs, while knowing such a step would harm Europe’s economy as well as the United States.
WHAT’S THE GREENLAND DEAL?
Several diplomats noted there were still few details of the new plan for Greenland, agreed between Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte late on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
“Nothing much changed. We still need to see details of the Greenland deal. We are a bit fed up with all the bullying. And we need to act on a few things: more resiliency, unity, get our things together on internal market, competitiveness. And no more accepting tariff bullying,” a third diplomat said.
Rutte told Reuters in an interview in Davos on Thursday that under the framework deal he reached with Trump the Western allies would have to step up their presence in the Arctic.
He also said talks would continue between Denmark, Greenland and the US on specific issues.
Diplomats stressed that, although Thursday’s emergency EU talks in Brussels would now lose some of their urgency, the longer-term issue of how to handle the relationship with the US remained.
“The approach of a united front in solidarity with Denmark and Greenland while focusing on de-escalation and finding an off-ramp has worked,” a fourth EU diplomat said.
“At the same time it would be good to reflect on the state of the relationship and how we want to shape this going forward, given the experiences of the past week (and year),” he said.
