No major change in US policy on Pakistan expected under Biden administration
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The transition in the White House next week with Joe Biden taking over the charge is likely to have a profound impact on America’s foreign policy. A major focus of the new US administration will be to end Trump’s unilateralist approach and return to traditional multilateralism.
The foreign policy priorities for the upcoming Biden administration are more or less defined. Asia –Pacific is among the key focus regions for the new administration. But there is no indication of any major shift in its South Asia policy.
While India is likely to remain a key US strategic partner in the region, there no likelihood of any significant change in policy toward Pakistan. It will remain largely a transactional relation with some convergence of interest between the two erstwhile allies in the Afghan peace process. Fast changing regional geopolitics with Pakistan’s growing strategic nexus with China may also cast a shadow over the Biden administration’s policy toward Islamabad.
Prime Minister Imran Khan, who seemed to have struck a good rapport with outgoing president Donald Trump despite the flow of US aid to Pakistan decreasing to a trickle, has yet to formulate a clear policy to deal with the new democratic party administration. Islamabad is struggling to establish contact with the Biden team.
For Joe Biden however, Pakistan is not unfamiliar. As vice president in the Obama administration, he dealt closely with Afghanistan and Pakistan. He has also traveled many times to Pakistan during his stint as chairman of the Senate committee on foreign relations and later as second in command in the Obama administration.
It may be true that Washington has not endorsed Delhi’s actions in Indian-administered Kashmir, but it has not condemned them either. While there is no likelihood of change in US policy toward India, it may be possible that the Biden administration could raise a worsening human rights situation in the disputed territory with Delhi.
Zahid Hussain
For the past several years, Washington has seen Pakistan purely from the Afghan prism. While a divergent approach on the Afghan war has been the major cause of tension between Washington and Islamabad, it is also the reason for them not to break up.
Pakistan’s support remains critical for America’s exit from Afghanistan and to bring an end to the two decade long war in the region. The incoming US administration has indicated that it will abide by the Doha agreement with the Taliban and plans to complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s role in facilitating the peace talks was critical. The Doha accord was seen as a vindication of Pakistan’s long-standing position that there was no military solution to the Afghan war. Pakistan could also play a significant role in getting fixed the problems arising during intra-Afghan talks for a post-American political setup.
The success of the Doha talks helped improve Pakistan’s relations with Washington, but the relations remained transitory. Changing regional geopolitics have created a new alignment of forces. The growing strategic alliance between the US and India and the China-Pakistan axis reflects these emerging geopolitics. Indeed, the US-Taliban peace deal has brought the withdrawal of American forces closer, and yet peace in Afghanistan remains elusive.
More importantly, the increasing US tilt toward India remains a cause of concern in Islamabad. It may be true that Washington has not endorsed Delhi’s actions in Indian-administered Kashmir, but it has not condemned them either. While there is no likelihood of change in US policy toward India, it may be possible that the Biden administration could raise a worsening human rights situation in the disputed territory with Delhi.
Of course, better relations with the United States is very important for Islamabad but it should not be linked with Washington’s relations with India. Pakistan needs an improvement in trade and economic cooperation with the US. The resumption of US aid may not be a major concern for Pakistan, but investment and economic cooperation will certainly be a priority for the country.
The Biden administration could also be interested in increasing US investment and expanding trade ties with Pakistan. This approach could help broaden Pakistan-US relations beyond a purely security paradigm.
More importantly, Pakistan needs the US to help stave off the looming threat of being blacklisted by the Paris-based terror-financing watchdog, Financial Action Task Force (FATF). In June 2018, Pakistan was placed on the grey list due to its ‘strategic deficiencies’ in the anti-money-laundering and terrorism-financing regime pushed by the US. But the new administration could link its support with Pakistan taking more effective actions against the militant groups allegedly still active in the country.
Pakistan’s diplomatic clout has eroded over the years because of political instability and economic insecurity, and Islamabad needs to take a more active diplomatic approach in order to reach out to the new administration in Washington.
Given his experience, Joe Biden will have a much better understanding of Pakistan’s importance for the United States, and for peace in the region.
*Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
