Iran staggers into 2021 with its many vulnerabilities exposed

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Updated 07 January 2021
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Iran staggers into 2021 with its many vulnerabilities exposed

  • Protests, US-led sanctions, targeted killings and one of the region’s worst COVID-19 outbreaks battered Iran in 2020
  • The regime’s annus horribilis may be over, but it could face more pressure to change its behavior given the leverage the West now has

MISSOURI, US: Iran’s woes during 2020 proved worse than most. The year began with shockwaves from the fuel price hike protests (which broke out in late November 2019) still reverberating all across the country.

Then on Jan. 3, the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s regional “shadow commander.” On edge due to fear of another American or Israeli attack, Iranian air defense forces then mistakenly shot down a Ukraine-bound civilian airliner minutes shortly after it took off in Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.

Almost one year later, authorities in Tehran have still not managed to rectify the problems or vulnerabilities that emerged so starkly in January 2020.

Key Iranian figures still look like easy targets for American or Israeli covert operations, as evidenced by the November 27 assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Fakhrizadeh was in Tehran when an AI-controlled machine gun from another vehicle targeted his car.

Three months earlier the Israelis also killed a top Al-Qaeda commander, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, who had found refuge in Iran.

Like Fakhrizadeh, Al-Masri was gunned down in broad daylight in the streets of Tehran. In this case, the assassins escaped on motorcycle.

Most observers believe the Israelis conducted the assassination at America’s behest.




Top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in November. (AFP)

Al-Masri masterminded the 1998 attacks on US embassies in Africa, and his killing occurred on Aug. 7, which was the anniversary of the embassy attacks.

As the Iranian economy remains belly-up from American-led sanctions, the same popular discontents that caused the late 2019 protests continue to simmer.

Iranian authorities’ rush to intimidate and silence protestors led them in September to hang popular Iranian wrestler Navid Afkari.

Afkari was only one of many executed by the regime in 2020 for what most viewed as political crimes.

Worldwide condemnations of Iran increased accordingly. At the UN, Canada brought forward a successful resolution in November condemning the human-rights record of the regime.

Referring back to the protests at the end of 2019, Amnesty International completed research concluding that the Iranian state killed 304 people, including children, during the protests and arrested thousands more.




Iran either lacks the ability or fears the consequences of direct attacks on its more serious enemies. (AFP)

Iran responded to the UN resolution and other criticisms by claiming they have “no legal validity” and otherwise ignoring them.

In response to the assassination of some of the regime’s most key figures, Tehran vowed serious retaliation — but shows little capacity for following through on such threats against America or Israel.

Iranian cat-and-mouse games with the US fleet in the Gulf in 2020 did nothing but raise tensions a bit, at the same time that the Americans seized a number of Iranian vessels transporting fuel to Venezuela in August.

Last week, as Israel sent one of its submarines through the Suez Canal towards the Gulf, Iran again replied with only threats.
 

Throughout 2020 Israel continued to hit Iranian personnel in Syria with air strikes and missiles.

All the while, Tehran seemed impotent to stop them. Under such circumstances Iran’s 2020 launch of its first military satellite, the unveiling of new missiles, and holding annual war games only looked like so much bravado.

The September-November Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan added to Tehran’s headaches during this period.

Iran used to play an important role in the Caucasus region and even mediated past disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They have since been eclipsed by Turkey and Russia, with no say in the latest war or its resolution.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even visited his victorious allies in Baku in December and read a nationalist Azeri poem there which seemingly makes claims upon the Azeri region of northwest Iran. The reaction from Tehran was loud but otherwise toothless.




Since then COVID-19 has killed over 50,000 Iranians and infected some 1.1 million. (AFP)

On top of the economic and political problems, COVID-19 appears to have hit Iran harder than most. In Feb. 2020 — before anywhere else in the Middle East — Iran experienced its first wave of the virus. Since then COVID-19 has killed over 50,000 Iranians and infected some 1.1 million.

The virus led to economic shutdowns and closures that competed with US-led sanctions to see which could damage the country more.

With a vaccine now coming out, Iranian authorities are accusing the US of blocking their access to vaccinations as well as to international loans to help combat it.

All these difficulties highlight a central, inescapable reality for 2020: The Iranian state saw itself significantly weakened and incapable of protecting, much less securing, its principal interests.

Although the regime in Tehran remains quite capable of kidnapping or killing Iranian dissidents abroad (such as a Paris-based dissident leader recently kidnapped from Iraq and a Balochi activist murdered in Canada last week), the same does not hold true for American and Israeli targets.

Iran either lacks the ability or fears the consequences of direct attacks on its more serious enemies.

Even indirect responses have serious limitations. Iran’s foes assassinated Soleimani after his supposed role in spurring on Iraqi Shiite militias to launch rockets on American bases in that country.

Any dramatic Iranian move to avenge attacks on its people — even if carried out by an Iranian proxy rather than Tehran itself — thus appears too risky for a regime so outclassed by the Americans and the Israelis.




Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (AFP)

Less dramatic Iranian stratagems, such as pressuring the Shiite-led government in Baghdad to evict American forces from Iraq, likewise seem limited in terms of what they can accomplish.

Iraqis, including Shiite ones, have their own interests and problems, leading to them to continue working with Americans in Iraq.

If the incoming Biden administration in the US proves savvier than Obama and his advisers were regarding Iran, they will take this Iranian weakness into account.

Although President-elect Biden has clearly expressed his desire to return to the nuclear accord’s framework agreement with Iran, he may do so more carefully than his predecessors.

The Obama administration’s mistake with Iran involved treating the regime there as if it were a deer that might get “spooked” away from negotiations.

As a result, the Obama administration halted all kinds of US anti-Iran efforts unrelated to the negotiations.

This included, for example, shutting down a major multi-year Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) investigation into Lebanese Hezbollah’s international money laundering.

The net effect of Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to “encourage negotiations” was to empower Iran and give it carte blanche to do whatever it liked.

A more sophisticated Biden administration policy would be to consider negotiating to resume the nuclear deal with Iran while truly keeping other unrelated matters separate.

This would mean maintaining a good deal of US pressure as well as non-nuclear related sanctions on Iran. In effect, the Iranians would receive at the most a partial lifting of sanctions for abiding by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a.k.a. the “nuclear deal”).

If the Iranians wanted relief from other sanctions, such as the ones applied for supporting terrorism, they would have to adjust their behavior accordingly.

In the final analysis, if the incoming Biden administration proves sufficiently savvy to take advantage of Iran’s annus horribilis, they could thus conceivably contain both Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions and its more destabilizing policies in the region.

Such a more nuanced approach would in turn reassure other Middle Eastern allies that Iran is not simply getting its Obama-issued carte blanche back.

• David Romano is Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University

Soleimani’s shadow
Qassem Soleimani left a trail of death and destruction in his wake as head of Iran’s Quds Force … until his assassination on Jan. 3, 2020. Yet still, his legacy of murderous interference continues to haunt the region

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Teenage Iranian protester Nika Shakarami ‘was killed by police’

Updated 02 May 2024
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Teenage Iranian protester Nika Shakarami ‘was killed by police’

JEDDAH: Iranian authorities ordered the arrest of activists and journalists on Wednesday after a leaked Revolutionary Guard report revealed that secret police had sexually assaulted and killed a teenage girl during Iran’s “hijab protests” in 2022.

Nika Shakarami, 16, died during demonstrations over the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been detained for wearing her headscarf incorrectly.

Shakarami’s death also sparked widespread outrage. Authorities said she died after falling from a tall building, but her mother said the girl had been beaten.

In a report prepared for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and leaked to the BBC, investigators said Shakarami had ben arrested by undercover security forces who molested her, then killed her with batons and electronic stun guns when she struggled against the attack.

Iran’s judiciary said on Wednesday that the BBC story was “a fake, incorrect and full-of-mistakes report,” without addressing any of the alleged errors.

“The Tehran Prosecutor’s Office filed a criminal case against these people,” a spokesman said, with charges including “spreading lies” and “propaganda against the system.” The first charge can carry up at a year and a half in prison and dozens of lashes, while the second can bring up to a year’s imprisonment.
It was not clear if prosecutors had charged the three BBC journalists who wrote the report. Those associated with the BBC’s Persian service have been targeted for years by Tehran and barred from working in the country since its disputed 2009 presidential election and Green Movement protests.

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the BBC report was an effort to “divert attention” from protests at American universities over the Israel-Hamas war. “The enemy and their media have resorted to false and far-fetched reports to conduct psychological operations,” he said.


How fierce but undeclared Israel-Hezbollah war is hurting civilians in south Lebanon

Updated 02 May 2024
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How fierce but undeclared Israel-Hezbollah war is hurting civilians in south Lebanon

  • IDF and Iran-backed Lebanese group began trading fire across the border following Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack
  • Farming communities in southern Lebanon have seen their fields burned, homes destroyed by Israeli strikes

BEIRUT: For more than six months, an undeclared war has been raging along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel, leading to the displacement of some 92,000 Lebanese citizens and the destruction of homes, businesses and agriculture.

The front line of this conflict between Hezbollah and the Israeli armed forces stretches some 850 km, incorporating parts of the UN-monitored Blue Line, with missiles fired by both sides reaching up to 15 km into their respective territories.

Although the exchanges have remained relatively contained, Israeli attacks have caused civilian deaths, damaged and destroyed homes, infrastructure and farmland, and ignited forest fires. Civilians on both sides of the border have been displaced.

“Our town is right on the border, and there are now only 100 out of 1,000 residents, and the rest are those who are unable to secure an alternative livelihood,” Jean Ghafri, mayor of Alma Al-Shaab, a predominantly Christian village in the Tyre District, told Arab News.

“So far, the shelling has destroyed 94 houses, and 60 percent of the olive groves, mango, and avocado orchards, vineyards, olive and carob trees have been burned, and some of the olive trees that were burned are 300 years old.”

Most of the people in the border region are Shiite. The rest are Sunni, Druze and Christians, along with dozens of Syrian refugee families, some 10,000 troops of UNIFIL, or UN Interim Force in Lebanon, and a few thousand Lebanese soldiers.

Members of Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia began launching rocket attacks against Israel on Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza.

A bulldozer removes rubble after an Israeli strike on a house in the southern Lebanese village of Sultaniyeh. (AFP/File)

Since then, Hezbollah and the Israeli military have traded fire along the shared border, raising fears that the Gaza conflict could spill over and engulf Lebanon in a devastating war reminiscent of the 2006 Israeli invasion.

“The town, although it is in a conflict zone, did not witness this level of direct destruction in the 2006 war,” said Ghafri. “It is impossible to know the exact damage because the area is considered a war zone. Those who are still there are receiving food rations from religious or international organizations.”

Al-Dahira is another town that has come under heavy shelling on an almost daily basis since the conflict began. It was from its nearby border that Hezbollah began its military assault on Oct. 8.

Its mayor, Abdullah Ghuraib, counts “17 houses that have been completely destroyed and dozens of houses that are no longer habitable due to the force of the shelling.”

He said: “There is only one woman, Radhya Atta Sweid, 75 years old, who insisted on staying in her house and not leaving. She had stayed in her house during the 2006 war and her brother’s wife, who was with her in the house, was killed and she remained there.”

Hassan Sheit, the mayor of Kfarkela, a village that is only a stone’s throw from the Israeli border, painted a similar picture of destruction and displacement.

“The material losses are great. This is a town where people live in summer and winter, of which only 7 percent of the 6,000 inhabitants remain,” Sheit told Arab News.

“The displacement from the town caused people to be homeless, living with relatives and in rented apartments, and living on aid from civil society and Hezbollah, which varies between financial and in-kind assistance.

Flames rise in a field near the border village of Burj Al-Mamluk after an Israeli strike. (Reuters/File)

“The town lost 15 martyrs as a result of the Israeli bombardment. What is happening today in the town was not done in the 2006 war.”

Thousands of families from towns and villages across southern Lebanon fled as soon as the first exchanges began. Many of these communities are now ghost towns, having lost some 90 percent of their residents.

The displaced, most of them women and children, have moved to towns further away from the border, including areas around Tyre, Nabatieh, Zahrani, Sidon, Jezzine and even the southern suburbs of Beirut, where they rent or stay with relatives.

Those without the means to support themselves have been forced to reside in shelters established by local authorities. These shelters, most of them in school buildings, are concentrated in the city of Tyre, within easy reach of their towns and villages.

This protracted displacement has been accompanied by economic hardship brought on by the financial crisis that struck Lebanon in late 2019. To make matters worse, many south Lebanese have lost their livelihoods as a result of their displacement.

Funeral for Hezbollah members Ismail Baz and Mohamad Hussein Shohury, who were killed in an Israeli strike on their vehicles, in Shehabiya. (AFP/File)

Ghafri, the mayor of Alma Al-Shaab, said several displaced residents had said expenses in Beirut were different from those in the villages. One person had told him residents “do not work and therefore no income reaches them, except for in-kind assistance from civil and international organizations and from wealthy expatriates.

“There are no political parties in Alma Al-Shaab, no militants, and all its people are in favor of the Lebanese state and refuse to allow their town to be used as a battlefield. People are worried about their future, and I am trying to convey this position to Hezbollah.”

Those who initially benefited from reduced or rent-free arrangements are now being asked to pay more or move on. The rent for some apartments has reportedly jumped from $100 to $1,000 per month, placing a significant strain on household savings and incomes.

INNUMBERS

• 92,621 Individuals displaced from south Lebanon by hostilities as of April 16 (DTM).

• 1,324 Casualties reported, including 340 deaths, as of April 18 (OHCHR, MoPH).

According to media reports, Hezbollah has intervened in support of displaced households, calling on apartment owners in the south and in Beirut’s southern suburbs to cap their rents, and providing families with financial aid.

Families who spoke to local media said Hezbollah provided a quarterly payment of $1,000 for three months, then reduced the amount to an average of $300 per month, covering about 15,000 displaced families.

Like other displaced households, the people of Al-Dahira have complained of “running out of money and relatives’ discomfort with their presence,” said the town’s mayor Ghuraib.

Students hold a large banner with the images of three sisters killed in the south of Lebanon during Israeli shelling. (AFP/File)

“Two days ago, we came to the town to pay our respects to someone who died. We entered the town in a hurry and quickly inspected our homes, and I saw men crying about the loss of their livelihoods and possessions.

“The people of Al-Dahira make a living from growing tobacco, olives and grains, but the (crops of the) previous season burned down and now the land is on fire.

“The problem is that the situation is getting worse day by day. People’s lives have been turned upside down. If the war drags on, the land will die. The Israelis are deliberately turning it into a scorched earth.”

What is undeniable is that the displacement of entire farming communities has brought the once bountiful agricultural economy in many areas to the brink of collapse.

“The people of Aitaroun make their living from agriculture, especially tobacco farming, and the losses today are great,” Salim Murad, the mayor of the southeastern border town, told Arab News.

Smoke billows during Israeli shelling on the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila. (AFP/File)

“There are 40 dairy cattle farmers with about 500 cows and two factories for making cheese and dairy products. With the displacement, production stopped and the displaced people most likely sold their cows or slaughtered them, which means that another link of agricultural production has been destroyed.

“There were 2,200 beehives distributed along the border, as the area is rich and varied in pasture, but these hives were completely lost, and farmers lost the olive season, and these orchards lost their future suitability for cultivation.”

It is unclear whether any kind of compensation will be paid to these farming households once the violence ends. Although the situation appears bleak, Kfarkela mayor Sheit is confident the region’s resilient communities will bounce back.

“Once the war stops, people will return to their homes and rebuild them,” he said. “Because we are the owners of the land.”


US military destroys Houthi drone boat 

Updated 01 May 2024
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US military destroys Houthi drone boat 

  • CENTCOM: It was determined the USV presented an imminent threat to U.S., coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region
  • Houthi leader Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi: Yemen’s strategic stockpile of deterrent weapons is much much larger than you would imagine

AL-MUKALLA: The US Central Command said that its forces have destroyed an explosive-laden and remotely operated boat in a Houthi-held area of Yemen, as the Yemeni militia reaffirmed threats to increase their Red Sea ship campaign unless Israel ceases its assault in Gaza.

In a statement on X on Wednesday morning, the US military said it destroyed an uncrewed surface vessel at approximately 1:52 p.m. (Sanaa time) on Tuesday in Yemen after determining that it posed a threat to the US and its allies, as well as international commercial and naval ships in international waters off Yemen’s coasts.

“It was determined the USV presented an imminent threat to U.S., coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region. These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels,” USCENTCOM said.

In Yemen, the Houthis said that the US and UK conducted one attack on the Red Sea Ras Essa in the western province of Hodeidah on Tuesday but did not specify the target area or the extent of the damage.

During the last seven months, the Houthis have seized a commercial ship, sunk another, and fired hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles, and remotely controlled drones at US, UK, Israeli, and other international ships in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab Strait, and Gulf of Aden. The Houthis claim they solely target Israel-linked and Israel-bound ships to push Israel to let humanitarian supplies into the Gaza Strip. They also added ships tied to the US and the UK to their list of targets after the two nations launched strikes against areas of Yemen under their control.

On Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations, which tracks ship attacks, advised ships passing through the Indian Ocean to exercise caution after receiving a report of a drone attacking a commercial ship 170 nautical miles southeast of Yemen’s Socotra island and approximately 300-400 nautical miles southeast of the Horn of Africa overnight on April 26. “The vessel and crew are reported safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call,” the UK agency said.

Similarly, the Houthi Supreme Political Council warned the US on Tuesday against conducting a fresh wave of strikes against regions under their control in punishment for the militia’s recent increase in assaults on ships in the Red Sea. “The consequences of any escalation will not stop at Yemen’s borders, nor will they impact the noble Yemeni stance, the steadfastness of the Yemeni people, or the heroism of the military forces at all levels,” Houthi council members said in a statement.

On Tuesday, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi issued the same warning to the US, claiming to possess huge military capabilities that would be utilized to counter any future US military strikes. “Do not play with fire. Yemen’s strategic stockpile of deterrent weapons is much much larger than you would imagine,” Al-Houthi said.

The Houthis said this week that they are aware that the US is ready to unleash a fresh round of bombings on Yemeni territories under their control, after the militia’s escalating assault against ships in the Red Sea.


Lebanese Christian leader says Hezbollah’s fighting with Israel has harmed Lebanon

Updated 01 May 2024
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Lebanese Christian leader says Hezbollah’s fighting with Israel has harmed Lebanon

  • Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces Party said Hezbollah should withdraw from areas along the border with Israel
  • The Lebanese army should deploy in all points where militants of the Iran-backed group have taken positions

`MAARAB, Lebanon: The leader of a main Christian political party in Lebanon blasted the Shiite militant group Hezbollah for opening a front with Israel to back up its ally Hamas, saying it has harmed Lebanon without making a dent in Israel’s crushing offensive in the Gaza Strip.
In an interview with AP on Tuesday night, Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces Party said Hezbollah should withdraw from areas along the border with Israel and the Lebanese army should deploy in all points where militants of the Iran-backed group have taken positions.
His comments came as Western diplomats try to broker a de-escalation in the border conflict amid fears of a wider war.
Hezbollah began launching rockets toward Israeli military posts on Oct. 8, the day after Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel in a surprise attack that sparked the crushing war in Gaza.
The near-daily violence has mostly been confined to the area along the border, and international mediators have been scrambling to prevent an all-out war. The fighting has killed 12 soldiers and 10 civilians in Israel. More than 350 people have been killed in Lebanon including 273 Hezbollah fighters and more than 50 civilians.
“No one has the right to control the fate of a country and people on its own,” Geagea said in his heavily guarded headquarters in the mountain village of Maarab. “Hezbollah is not the government in Lebanon. There is a government in Lebanon in which Hezbollah is represented.” In addition to its military arm, Hezbollah is a political party.
Geagea, whose party has the largest bloc in Lebanon’s 128-member parliament, has angled to position himself as the leader of the opposition against Hezbollah.
Hezbollah officials have said that by opening the front along Israel’s northern border, the militant group has reduced the pressure on Gaza by keeping several Israeli army divisions on alert in the north rather than taking part in the monthslong offensive in the enclave.
“All the damage that could have happened in Gaza ... happened. What was the benefit of military operations that were launched from south Lebanon? Nothing,” Geagea said, pointing the death toll and massive destruction in Lebanon’s border villages.
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians, caused wide destruction and displaced hundreds of thousands to the city of Rafah along Egypt’s border. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Tuesday to launch an offensive into the southern Gaza city of Rafah despite international calls for restraint.
Geagea said Hezbollah aims through the ongoing fighting to benefit its main backer, Iran, by giving it a presence along Israel’s border and called for the group to withdraw from border areas and Lebanese army deploy in accordance with a UN Security Council resolution that ended the 34-day Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.
Geagea also discussed the campaign by his party to repatriate Syrian refugees who fled war into Lebanon.
Those calls intensified after a Syrian gang was blamed for last month’s killing of Lebanese Forces official Pascal Suleiman, allegedly in a carjacking gone wrong, although many initially suspected political motives.
Lebanon, with a total population of around 6 million, hosts what the UN refugee agency says are nearly 785,000 UN-registered Syrian refugees, of which 90 percent rely on aid to survive. Lebanese officials estimate there may be 1.5 million or 2 million, of whom only around 300,000 have legal residency.
Human rights groups say that Syria is not safe for mass returns and that many Syrians who have gone back — voluntarily or not — have been detained and tortured.
Geagea, whose party is adamantly opposed to the government of President Bashar Assad in Syria, insisted that only a small percentage of Syrians in Lebanon are true political refugees and that those who are could go to opposition-controlled areas of Syria.
The Lebanese politician suggested his country should follow in the steps of Western countries like Britain, which passed controversial legislation last week to deport some asylum seekers to Rwanda.
“In Lebanon we should tell them, guys, go back to your country. Syria exists,” said Geagea, who headed the largest Christian militia during Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil war.


Turkiye to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at World Court, minister says

Updated 01 May 2024
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Turkiye to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at World Court, minister says

  • “Turkiye will continue to support the Palestinian people in all circumstances,” Fidan said
  • In January, President Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkiye was providing documents for the case at the ICJ

ISTANBUL: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that Turkiye would join in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
“Upon completion of the legal text of our work, we will submit the declaration of official intervention before the ICJ with the objective of implementing this political decision,” Fidan said in a joint press conference with Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi in Ankara.
“Turkiye will continue to support the Palestinian people in all circumstances,” he said.
The ICJ ordered Israel in January to refrain from any acts that could fall under the Genocide Convention and to ensure its troops commit no genocidal acts against Palestinians, after South Africa accused Israel of state-led genocide in Gaza.
In January, President Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkiye was providing documents for the case at the ICJ, also known as the World Court.
Israel and its Western allies described the allegation as baseless. A final ruling in South Africa’s ICJ case in The Hague could take years.