After Biden’s inauguration, America will need a more permanent friend in Pakistan

How US-Pakistan relations will fare under Joe Biden beginning next month, will largely depend on his foreign policy. By accident or design, President Trump ended up undermining public support for some of the country’s old foreign policy traditions, especially relations with China, Washington’s fascination with globalization and its compulsive global leadership role, endless wars and the militarization of foreign policy-- all of which had a domestic and foreign policy cost. 

But Biden can neither pick up where the Democrats left off in 2016, nor adopt Trump’s foreign policy-- which was all sound and light but no design, dictated more by politics than by policy to the sacrifice of overall US economic and strategic interests. Instead, Biden will have to come up with a proper strategy that rebalances US interests and priorities keeping in view the lingering economic consequences of the pandemic.

From Pakistan’s perspective, changes that matter most will be the US relationship with China and India, and its policy toward Afghanistan. 

On China, any new Cold War will have to wait. The most likely scenario will be an Obama-Trump hybrid policy treating China not as an adversary or a threat, but as a rival.

The issue will be how to compete with China without confrontation especially as the need for economic cooperation will be paramount in order to revive the American economy. While strong ties with India will continue, some of the halo will wear off as Washington steps back from a new Cold War that looks at South Asia largely through the prism of the containment of China and with the eyes of India. 

When Joe Biden takes oath as President next month, will all this be to Pakistan’s benefit? 

Pakistan has had no permanent importance for Washington, nor any lasting place in US foreign policy. Pakistan’s importance has historically varied according to fluctuating American interests in the region, putting it sometimes alongside Washington, and sometimes against it. 

Touqir Hussain 

For an answer we need to look at the history of relations with which the future US foreign policy will interact. Pakistan has had no permanent importance for Washington, nor any lasting place in US foreign policy. Pakistan’s importance has historically varied according to fluctuating American interests in the region, putting it sometimes alongside Washington, and sometimes against it. 

In essence it has been a transactional relationship but ironically dealing with strategic issues on which the two countries lacked consensus. All these contradictions set up the relationship for recurring tensions. 

The relationship has been severely tested-- from the failing Afghanistan war, militancy, the nuclear question To complicate matters, the relationship collided with Pakistan’s growing ties with China and Washington’s extraordinary new relations with India. 

Many of these issues will continue to weigh on the relationship presenting challenges and opportunities to Pakistan and to a hopefully chastened America in a changed regional and global environment. The challenge will be how to resolve historical contradictions within their relationship and in their relations with other countries. 

Pakistan has legitimate concerns about US-India relations having cast a shadow on US-Pakistan relations in recent years. That might change. US-India relations are important but will not be the answer to all the challenges America faces in the region. The need for Pakistan will remain. 

And vice versa, as a medium sized country with serious security related challenges and threats, Pakistan needs the US despite its close ties with China. 

As for Afghanistan, Americans clearly do not want chaos and instability there, which would mean the resurgence of militant threats. But Washington cannot prevent that by itself. It will need the cooperation of Pakistan, which has the capability to both facilitate and obstruct US objectives. Afghanistan’s future therefore depends in large part on US Pakistan cooperation. 

The need is for Washington to involve Pakistan in a long term, structured and mutually beneficial relationship. The old American policy of treating the relationship as just a one-night stand will benefit neither country. And given his long foreign policy exposure, President-elect Biden knows it. 

*Touqir Hussain, a former Ambassador of Pakistan, teaches at Georgetown University and is a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asia Studies, National University of Singapore.