Saudi Arabia will ‘come out on top’ in oil markets, JP Morgan predicts

Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia, May 21, 2018. (Reuters)
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Updated 13 June 2020
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Saudi Arabia will ‘come out on top’ in oil markets, JP Morgan predicts

  • Analyst Christyan Malek: Saudi Arabia will come out on top in the fight for market share as non-OPEC and US production fades
  • The Kingdom will see its share of the market rise from the current level of 11.6 per cent to around 15 per cent

DUBAI: Saudi Arabia’s strategy in the oil market has won a vote of confidence from the American investment bank JP Morgan, which predicts the Kingdom will “come out on top” in the global energy business.

“Saudi Arabia will come out on top in the fight for market share as non-OPEC and US production fades,” JP Morgan analyst Christyan Malek said in a report on the oil industry, which suggested that Saudi Arabia will see a large increase in its share of the international oil market as the American shale industry weakens and production declines from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The Kingdom, which has been leading global efforts to stabilize the global oil market in the wake of an unprecedented decline in demand because of the COVID-19 pandemic, will see its share of the market rise from the current level of 11.6 per cent to around 15 per cent — its highest level since the 1980s — by 2025, JPM said.

Oil production from the US shale fields, which propelled America to its position as the biggest producer in the world in 2019, is forecast to rise only slightly to 11m barrels a day this year. Before the crash in oil prices in March and April, US shale oil was expected to climb steadily to reach 17m barrels per day over the next decade.

Oil prices are down around 40 percent so far this year, but have recovered from historic lows in April after Saudi Arabia and Russia — via the OPEC+ alliance — orchestrated record cuts in output in April. Just last weekend, the deal was extended and tough new guidelines introduced to ensure oil producers comply with the new regime.

Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said: “Through our commitment to a proactive policy, within a cohesive and collective framework, we are restoring confidence to global oil markets. We have grounds to be optimistic about the future.”

JP Morgan expects demand to increase sharply in the second half of this year, for an average of 91m barrels per day for 2020. This is down from the 100m barrels per day the world was consuming before the pandemic first hit global economies. That level will only resume in November of next year, JP Morgan predicted.

With oil prices currently at comparatively low levels, capital expenditure in oil will be cut back, JP Morgan said, which could create a “supercycle” from 2022, leading to falling supply and a surge in crude prices.

JP Morgan is the biggest bank in the world measured by profits, and has been a partner of Saudi Arabia for many years, having helped fund the original investment in the oil industry in the 1930s.


First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

Updated 16 January 2026
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First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

RIYADH: The EU–Saudi Arabia Business and Investment Dialogue on Advancing Critical Raw Materials Value Chains, held in Riyadh as part of the Future Minerals Forum, brought together senior policymakers, industry leaders, and investors to advance strategic cooperation across critical raw materials value chains.

Organized under a Team Europe approach by the EU–GCC Cooperation on Green Transition Project, in coordination with the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, the European Chamber of Commerce in the Kingdom and in close cooperation with FMF, the dialogue provided a high-level platform to explore European actions under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU alongside the Kingdom’s aspirations for minerals, industrial, and investment priorities.

This is in line with Saudi Vision 2030 and broader regional ambitions across the GCC, MENA, and Africa.

ResourceEU is the EU’s new strategic action plan, launched in late 2025, to secure a reliable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, rare earths, and cobalt, reducing dependency on single suppliers, such as China, by boosting domestic extraction, processing, recycling, stockpiling, and strategic partnerships with resource-rich nations.

The first ever EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials was opened by the bloc’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Christophe Farnaud, together with Saudi Deputy Minister for Mining Development Turki Al-Babtain, turning policy alignment into concrete cooperation.

Farnaud underlined the central role of international cooperation in the implementation of the EU’s critical raw materials policy framework.

“As the European Union advances the implementation of its Critical Raw Materials policy, international cooperation is indispensable to building secure, diversified, and sustainable value chains. Saudi Arabia is a key partner in this effort. This dialogue reflects our shared commitment to translate policy alignment into concrete business and investment cooperation that supports the green and digital transitions,” said the ambassador.

Discussions focused on strengthening resilient, diversified, and responsible CRM supply chains that are essential to the green and digital transitions.

Participants explored concrete opportunities for EU–Saudi cooperation across the full value chain, including exploration, mining, and processing and refining, as well as recycling, downstream manufacturing, and the mobilization of private investment and sustainable finance, underpinned by high environmental, social, and governance standards.

From the Saudi side, the dialogue was framed as a key contribution to the Kingdom’s industrial transformation and long-term economic diversification agenda under Vision 2030, with a strong focus on responsible resource development and global market integration.

“Developing globally competitive mineral hubs and sustainable value chains is a central pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s industrial transformation. Our engagement with the European Union through this dialogue to strengthen upstream and downstream integration, attract high-quality investment, and advance responsible mining and processing. Enhanced cooperation with the EU, capitalizing on the demand dynamics of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, will be key to delivering long-term value for both sides,” said Al-Babtain.

Valere Moutarlier, deputy director-general for European industry decarbonization, and directorate-general for the internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and SMEs at European Commission, said the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU provided a clear framework to strengthen Europe’s resilience while deepening its cooperation with international partners.

“Cooperation with Saudi Arabia is essential to advancing secure, sustainable, and diversified critical raw materials value chains. Dialogues such as this play a key role in translating policy ambitions into concrete industrial and investment cooperation,” she added.