Virus pressure tests Saudi Arabia reforms as Aramco has Forbes debut

Saudi Aramco’s debut on the Forbes list follows a record IPO last year. (AFP)
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Updated 28 May 2020
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Virus pressure tests Saudi Arabia reforms as Aramco has Forbes debut

  • ‘In terms of profits, the Saudi companies have done well. We will see more companies rising in the next few years

RIYADH: Saudi companies such as oil giant Aramco are displaying resilience in the face of the coronavirus pandemic because of reforms introduced before its arrival, say analysts.

The world’s largest oil company has become emblematic of wider corporate reforms triggered by the Saudi Vision 2030 blueprint for social and economic change.

Saudi Aramco this month appeared in the top five of the Forbes Global 2000 list, which ranks the world’s 2000 largest companies.

It comes as the world’s most profitable company reported profits on $88.2 billion last year.

This year’s rankings arrive amid a global pandemic which has devastated the earnings of some companies, improved the position of others and tested the resilience of all.

It has also shone a spotlight on the ability of the the Kingdom’s top companies to withstand the twin shock of the COVID-19 lockdown and the collapse of oil prices.

Saudi Aramco debuted on the prestigious Forbes list after completing the world’s largest initial public offering last year.

The rankings are based on a combination of sales, profits, market capitalization and assets. Three of the top five companies on the list are from China, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in the top spot for the eighth straight year with more than $4.3 trillion in assets.

Forbes noted that many of the companies on its list have come through a particularly difficult first quarter as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, or what it describes as “The Great Cessation.”

“Many companies and organizations have faced difficulties in managing and mitigating the impact of COVID-19 crisis. However, there are some companies that have prepared well and put in action plans to avoid this crisis with the least damage,” said Fahad Alfaifi, a Saudi-based strategy and business planning consultant.

The pandemic has come at a time of historic change in the Kingdom’s corporate landscape driven by economic reforms which form a major part of the Vision 2030 agenda. This aims to reduce the country’s reliance on oil revenues and stimulate investment in sectors of the economy that create new jobs for a youthful population.

This backdrop has meant many companies in the Kingdom were already changing the way they did business before the arrival of the pandemic and the collapse of oil prices created new challenges.

Last year’s annual Global Competitiveness Report, issued by the World Economic Forum, placed the Kingdom third among G20 counties and 11th globally

in terms of IT governance which rates a country’s ability to adapt digital technologies such as e-commerce and financial technology.

Such technology skills are becoming increasingly important for economies as they to re-calibrate and adapt to the post-pandemic world.

Nasser Al-Qarawee, the director of the Saudi Study and Research Center, attributed the success of some Saudi companies to the great achievements made by the private sector lately and predicted that more Saudi companies would eventually join Aramco on the Forbes list.

“The national economy has seen enormous improvements and development in terms of laws and legislation that have helped reduce restrictions and bureaucracy, while the government has worked at the same time on reducing dependency on oil. Vision 2030 will further cement the Kingdom’s strong presence globally and make it have a larger influence on global decisions, not only economically but also politically.”

Tawfiq Al-Swailem, CEO of the Gulf Bureau for Research and Economic Consultations, said that many Saudi companies would emerge from the pandemic in a strong position.

“In terms of profits, the Saudi companies have done well, although the entire world is living through a state of ferocious economic war,” he said. “We will see more Saudi companies rising in the next few years.”


Emerging markets brace for AI shock and weak growth, policymakers warn 

Updated 27 sec ago
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Emerging markets brace for AI shock and weak growth, policymakers warn 

ALULA: Emerging markets are entering a more volatile phase of the global economy better prepared for shocks than in the past, but face mounting risks from weak productivity growth, trade fragility and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence, senior policymakers said. 

Speaking at a core panel on the second day of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, finance ministers and global officials warned that structural challenges — rather than cyclical crises — may define the next decade for developing nations. 

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said many emerging economies had strengthened institutions and macroeconomic frameworks after earlier crises, leaving them more resilient. 

“What we have seen over the last decades is that many emerging market economies have taken lessons from the advanced economies… in a way that gives them a better foundation to face the shocks that are now coming more and more often,” she said. 

Georgieva highlighted a “significant improvement” in growth prospects and lower inflation for countries that took a long-term view on building strong institutions. This progress has fostered a new dynamic, she noted: “We now find that emerging markets are more interested to compete with each other for who does better in this policy arena.”  

Still, Georgieva said sluggish growth remains her biggest concern. 

“If there is one thing that wakes me up in the middle of the night,” she said, “is that growth, although reasonable, is too low to meet the expectations of people for a better standard of living.” 

She attributed the slowdown largely to stagnant productivity and warned that artificial intelligence could intensify labor market pressures. 

“AI is like a tsunami hitting the labor market for emerging market economies,” she said, projecting that “40 percent of jobs over the next years would be either augmented or eliminated.” 

She added that many countries lack the skills base needed to capture AI’s benefits. “The skills that are necessary to capture the potential of AI, I don’t think that we are in a good place for that.” 

Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, Qatar’s finance minister, said AI cannot be separated from human capital development. 

“I think, you cannot ignore AI, without the human capital, the human capital is the key element,” he said, noting that many emerging economies are tightening fiscal policy in an effort to stabilize public finances. 

Trade vulnerability remains another pressure point. Mehmet Simsek, Turkiye’s minister of treasury and finance, said export dependence exposes developing economies to geopolitical and regulatory risks. 

“I think emerging markets rely on exports, and that’s clearly an issue. So there is more vulnerability there,” he said. 

Turkiye’s network of free trade agreements, covering 62 percent of exports, provides some insulation, he added, though not full protection. 

“Now that doesn’t give you a full peace of mind,” he cautioned, “but at least for now, as long as our partner stays rule based, FTA provides you with some insulation.” 

From Ecuador’s perspective, Finance Minister Sariha Moya said smaller economies must compete on quality rather than volume. 

“Ecuador is a small country, so our producers have understood that we need to produce quality products,” she said. 

“When you produce the best shrimp, the best chocolate, the best bananas, then you are less sensitive to tariffs,” Moya added, noting that Ecuador now exports more shrimp than oil.