Russia yet to finalize stance before OPEC+ considers deeper oil cuts

Russia agreed to reduce output by 228,000 barrels per day (bpd) to about 11.18 million bpd in 2019 as part of cuts agreed by the group known as OPEC+. (AFP)
Updated 03 December 2019

Russia yet to finalize stance before OPEC+ considers deeper oil cuts

  • Russia agreed to reduce output by 228,000 barrels per day to about 11.18 million bpd in 2019
  • But it pumped more than its quota in November, producing 11.244 million bpd

MOSCOW: Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday he expected this week’s meeting of OPEC oil producers and their allies to be constructive but said Moscow had yet to finalize its position in talks on possible additional supply curbs.
Russia agreed to reduce output by 228,000 barrels per day (bpd) to about 11.18 million bpd in 2019 as part of cuts agreed by the group known as OPEC+. But it pumped more than its quota in November, producing 11.244 million bpd.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, which previously agreed to reduce combined output by 1.2 million bpd or 1.2 percent of global demand until March, hold discussions in Vienna on Thursday and Friday.
“I will not tell you anything now as we are still finalizing our position,” Novak told reporters. “Let’s wait ... But I think the meeting, as usual, will be of constructive nature.”
Two sources said on Monday that OPEC+ was discussing cutting output by at least an additional 400,000 bpd, as Riyadh seeks high oil prices to balance its budget and help Thursday’s pricing for Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO). The Saudis have been lobbying others to deepen cuts.
Novak said Russia’s average cut was 195,000 bpd in November and said Moscow aimed to comply fully with the quota in December.
Russia earlier called for a change to the way its output is measured to exclude gas condensate, which accounts for about 7 percent-8 percent of Russia’s total oil production, or about 800,000 bpd.
Novak told reporters he planned to discuss excluding condensate from Moscow’s quotas at the OPEC+ meeting.
By excluding condensate and only taking into account oil production, Novak said Russia’s output could be about 225,000 bpd to 230,000 bpd less in December.
“That said, we will discuss with our colleagues to take into account our statistics the same way as for OPEC countries — excluding condensate,” the minister said.
Vagit Alekperov, chief executive of Russia’s No.2 oil producer Lukoil, said in comments broadcast on Tuesday that it would not be expedient to deepen global oil production cuts in the winter season, especially for Russia.
Russian data cites production in tons. Reuters uses a conversion rate of 7.33 barrels per ton of oil.


Spike in tensions but no oil market shock, says IEA

Updated 17 January 2020

Spike in tensions but no oil market shock, says IEA

  • Strategic reserves play key role in minimizing disruption to global supply amid US-Iran face-off, agency says

PARIS: The brief spike in Middle East tensions as the US and Iran faced off has served as a reminder of the havoc disruptions in supply from the key oil-producing region could wreak on the global economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

But it said ample stocks and production elsewhere mean the world is relatively well placed to react to a crisis.

Washington and Tehran are currently in a standoff after tit-for-tat military actions over the past two weeks that had sparked fears of a large-scale confrontation that could choke off the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of global oil supplies flow.

“We cannot know how the geopolitical situation will play out over time, but for now the risk of a major threat to oil supplies appears to have receded,” the IEA said in its latest monthly report on oil markets.

It noted that oil prices have receded after jumping $4 per barrel, much as they did in September when a series of attacks on Saudi oil facilities briefly knocked out part of the production of the key exporter.

“Today’s market where non-OPEC production is rising strongly and OECD stocks are 9 million barrels above the five-year average, provides a solid base from which to react to any escalation in geopolitical tension,” said the Paris-based organisation, which advises industrial nations that are members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development on energy policy.

“As a back-up resource, the value of strategic stocks has once again been confirmed.”

The IEA was created in the wake of the 1973 oil shock provoked by an embargo imposed by OPEC and IEA members now hold reserves worth three months of net imports.

The oil market has been driven in recent years by a surge of non-OPEC production that has outstripped demand, with OPEC and its allies moving to restrain production to support prices.

The IEA’s forecasts see faster growth in demand for oil this year thanks to expectations that global growth will pick up as trade tensions diminish.

However, the 2.1 million barrels per day (mbd) growth in non-OPEC supplies will far outpace the increased demand of 1.2 mbd, putting further pressure on OPEC and its allies to further cut production.

During 2019, falls in OPEC production nearly completely offset a rise in production from countries outside the group.