OPEC sees lower 2020 demand for its oil, points to surplus

OPEC and its allies last week renewed a supply-cutting pact until March 2020. (AFP)
Updated 12 July 2019

OPEC sees lower 2020 demand for its oil, points to surplus

  • The drop in demand for OPEC crude highlights the sustained boost that OPEC’s policy to support prices
  • OPEC and its allies last week renewed a supply-cutting pact until March 2020

LONDON: OPEC yesterday forecast world demand for its crude will decline next year as rivals pump more, pointing to the return of a surplus despite an OPEC-led pact to restrain supplies.
The drop in demand for OPEC crude highlights the sustained boost that OPEC’s policy to support prices by supply cuts is giving to US shale and other rival sources. This potentially gives US President Donald Trump more room to keep up sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela.
Giving its first 2020 forecasts in a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said the world would need 29.27 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its 14 members next year, down 1.34 million bpd from this year.
“US tight crude production is anticipated to continue to grow as new pipelines will allow more Permian crude to flow to the US Gulf Coast export hub,” OPEC said, using another term for shale oil.
In the report OPEC also forecast that world oil demand would rise at the same pace as this year and that the world economy would expand at this year’s pace, despite slower growth in the US and China.
“The 2020 forecast assumes that no further downside risks materialize, particularly that trade-related issues do not escalate further,” OPEC said of the economic outlook. Brexit poses an additional risk, as does a continuation in the current slowdown in manufacturing activity.”
OPEC, Russia and other producers have since Jan. 1 implemented a deal to cut output by 1.2 million bpd. The alliance, known as OPEC+, last week renewed the pact until March 2020 to avoid a build-up of inventories that could hit prices.
Oil pared earlier gains after the report was released, although prices were still trading above $67 a barrel after three Iranian vessels tried to block a British ship in the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint.

HIGHLIGHTS

● Demand for OPEC crude to fall 1.34 million bpd in 2020.

● Cites trade disputes, Brexit as economy risks.

● Oil stocks increase, remaining above five-year average. Points to 2020 supply surplus at current OPEC production.

Despite the supply cut, oil has tumbled from April’s 2019 peak above $75, pressured by concerns over the US-China trade dispute and an economic slowdown.
OPEC also oil inventories in developed economies rose in May, suggesting a trend that could raise concern over a possible oil glut.
Stocks in May exceeded the five-year average — a yardstick OPEC watches closely — by 25 million barrels.
OPEC said its oil output in June fell by 68,000 bpd to 29.83 million bpd as US sanctions on Iran boosted the impact of the supply pact.
According to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, supply from Iran posted the biggest decline, by 142,000 bpd, as Washington tightened the screws on Iranian exports.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia increased output by 126,000 bpd to 9.81 million bpd in June but continued to voluntarily pump less than the supply pact allows it to in order to bolster the market. Nigeria, seeking a higher OPEC quota, posted the group’s largest boost in output.
With 2020 demand for OPEC crude expected to average 29.27 million bpd, OPEC’s report suggests there will be a 2020 supply surplus of over 500,000 bpd if OPEC keeps pumping at June’s rate and other things remain equal.


Saudi Aramco sets IPO share price between 30-32 riyals

Updated 17 November 2019

Saudi Aramco sets IPO share price between 30-32 riyals

  • Saudi Aramco intends to buy $1 billion worth of shares for employee

DUBAI: Saudi Aramco’s multibillion-dollar initial public offering (IPO), probably the biggest in history, shifted to full gear as its share price was announced and subscription to the world’s biggest oil company commenced on Sunday.

Saudi Aramco set an indicative share price between 30 and 32 riyals for the 1.5 percent of its shares – or about 3 billion shares of its 20 billion regular shares – that it would offer for  the domestic part of its public offering. The blockbuster IPO could be worth least $24 billion, and values the state-owned oil giant at up to $1.71 trillion.

The offering – or book-building – period for institutional subscribers, which started today, closes on December 4 while the retail offering for individual investors will begin on November 21 and will end on November 28.

The final pricing for the Aramco shares would be announced on December 5.

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For more of our coverage of the Aramco IPO, click here.

To view key Aramco IPO documents, click here.

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Samba Capital & Investment Management Company has been designated as issue manager while National Commercial Bank, Saudi British Bank, Samba Financial Group, Saudi Investment Bank, Alawwal Bank, Arab National Bank, Albilad Bank, Aljazira Bank, Riyad Bank, Al Rajhi Bank, Alinma Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi and Gulf International Bank were named as receiving banks.

If there are applications for more than the 0.5 percent on offer — amounting to 1 billion shares — allocations to private investors will be scaled back proportionate to demand; if there are fewer applications than the 0.5 percent when all maximum applications are satisfied, private investors can have the over-payment refunded either in cash via the receiving banks or in the form of extra shares in Aramco.

There is an incentive mechanism in the IPO whereby Saudi investors will receive a bonus one-for-ten allocation of shares, up to a maximum of 100 shares, if they do not sell shares in the market for a period of six months after dealings begin in December, at a date still to be determined.

Saudi Aramco also intends to buy $1 billion worth of shares for employees under a plan to incentivize executives and staff members alongside the IPO next month.

The plan — which was disclosed in the IPO prospectus — will involve Aramco buying the shares from the government and making them available for employees under special terms.