What does AKP’s defeat in Istanbul election mean for Turkey’s future

Supporters attend an Ekrem Imamoglu rally in the Beylikduzu district of Istanbul. Many experts view the Istanbul mayoral victory of the CHP’s Imamoglu as a stinging blow to Erdogan and his leadership. (Reuters)
Updated 27 June 2019
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What does AKP’s defeat in Istanbul election mean for Turkey’s future

  • Ekrem Imamoglu’s defeat of rival Binali Yildirim, by about 800,000 votes, ended 25 years of AKP domination in Istanbul
  • When Erdogan forced the annulment of the previous result, it helped transform Imamoglu into the new face of politics

ANKARA: After Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost control of Istanbul in the rerun of the city’s mayoral election this week, there are two big questions to be answered: Where did President Recep Tayyip Erdogan go wrong with his strategy, and does the defeat represent the start of a permanent shift in the balance of power in the country?
Many experts view the June 23 victory by Ekrem Imamoglu, of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), as a stinging blow to Erdogan and his leadership. Some suggest it could even mark “the beginning of the end” for the president; his own rise to power began when he was elected the city’s mayor in 1994 and he has repeatedly said that “whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey.”
Imamoglu’s defeat of rival Binali Yildirim, by about 800,000 votes, ended 25 years of AKP domination in the city.
“No individual or power can stand in the way of the will of the people,” Imamoglu told Christiane Amanpour during an interview broadcast by CNN on Wednesday night.
The underlying causes of Erdogan’s change of fortunes are now under scrutiny. AKP politician Mustafa Yeneroglu posted a message on Twitter soon after the election result was announced in which he said his party lost because “it has lost its moral superiority.”
While it is still too early to predict whether the AKP’s defeat, in a city that is home to 16 million people, represents a political sea change, rumors are growing in Ankara of plans by two of Erdogan’s former ministers, Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, to form a new splinter party. It is reportedly backed by former President Abdullah Gul and could be launched by early autumn.
“The primary cause of the Erdogan’s defeat is that the Turkish economy is collapsing,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Program at the Washington Institute.
With inflation running at an annual rate of about 19 percent and the official unemployment rate exceeding 14 percent, it was inevitable that there would at some point be a price to pay for the economic deterioration.
Erdogan has won numerous elections since 2002 on the basis of strong economic growth, Cagaptay said, but his ability to build support has suffered as a result of economic mismanagement. Many of the people who previously were attracted to his populist rhetoric are simply not buying it anymore, he added.
“Erdogan is a populist leader who has consistently demonized, brutalized and cracked down on demographics who are unlikely to vote for him,” Cagaptay said.
Experts also point to a “fatigue” and internal disputes within the party as contributing factors.
During his early political career, Erdogan represented to his supporters the idea of “change” and a forward-looking approach. At that time, he was appealing to those who felt dispossessed by the old political order.
“But this is no longer the case,” Cagaptay said. “Erdogan has ruled Turkey longer than any other democratically elected leader and now it is really hard for him to make an argument that he represents change, because he owns Turkey’s problems, from a collapsing economy to nepotism and allegations of corruption.”

The primary cause of the Erdogan’s defeat is that the Turkish economy is collapsing. 

Soner Cagaptay, Director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

The AKP lost some of its previously loyal base in Istanbul’s religious districts, such as Eyup and Fatih, which were known as AKP fortresses. The voters abandoned the party in favor of the opposition candidate Imamoglu, who is known for his secular but conservative and religiously sensitive credentials.
He won the first mayoral election, on March 31, by the much slimmer majority of 13,000 votes. According to Cagaptay, when Erdogan forced the annulment of that result — accusing the opposition candidate of stealing votes — it helped to transform Imamoglu into the new face of politics, the role that Erdogan himself once embodied.
“Because Erdogan now represents the establishment, it is Imamoglu who represents change and stands for those who feel marginalized and dispossessed by the system,” he added.
In a deeply polarized country, Imamoglu appealed to a number of segments of society from a wide range of political and social backgrounds — including secularists, the devout, nationalists and Kurds — by delivering an inclusive message of unity. Some will inevitably consider that his victory in Istanbul makes him a potential rival to take on Erdogan during his presidential run in 2023.
Istanbul is not the only significant defeat suffered by the AKP; it also lost control of the capital Ankara and a number of other important areas, including the southern provinces of Antalya, Adana and Mersin, in the March elections.
Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, believes that from a European viewpoint, the reason for the massive defeat suffered by the AKP in Istanbul can be linked to two main factors.
“The first is the dire economic situation in which Turkey’s economy currently finds itself,” he said. “The predominant perception, in the EU and in Turkey alike, is that the policy mix and the economic team are not up to the task and, therefore, need some major adjustments.”
Changes in economic policies will be futile, however, if they are not accompanied by substantial changes in the political governance, he added.
The second factor, according to Pierini, was the annulment of the March 31 election result based on dubious motives, which was the step too far in terms of the rule of law.
“The degradation of Turkey’s political governance has been steep for several years and is entirely driven by its president,” he said. “It now appears that there was a massive popular reaction against this state of affairs, including among AKP voters.”


US starts building Gaza aid pier

Updated 3 sec ago
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US starts building Gaza aid pier

  • It is expected to be operational in early May

WASHINGTON: The US military has begun construction on a pier meant to boost deliveries of desperately needed aid to Gaza, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

The small coastal territory has been devastated by more than six months of Israeli bombardment and ground operations against Hamas militants, leaving the civilian population in need of humanitarian assistance to survive.

“I can confirm that US military vessels... have begun to construct the initial stages of the temporary pier and causeway at sea,” Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder told journalists.

Indications are that the pier will be operational in early May, and “everything is on course at this point,” he said.

Highlighting the dangers in Gaza, Ryder said that “some type of mortar attack” caused minimal damage near an onshore area that will eventually be a delivery site for aid.

The Israeli defense ministry body responsible for Palestinian civil affairs said militants fired mortars Wednesday at a humanitarian work site in northern Gaza during a visit by UN personnel, with no casualties reported.

A senior US military official told journalists that “we don’t assess that the attack had anything to do with the (aid pier) mission or delivery of humanitarian assistance from the sea.”

The military official also outlined how the maritime aid delivery process will work, saying assistance will first come into Cyprus, where it will be screened and prepared for delivery.

Aid will then be loaded onto commercial vessels for transportation to a floating platform miles off the coast of Gaza. There, it will be transferred to smaller vessels that will take the assistance to a pier that is anchored to the shore.

Trucks will then drive the aid down the platform, where a distribution partner will take it into Gaza, the official said, noting that initial operating capacity will be 90 trucks of assistance per day, later rising to 150 trucks a day.

The senior military official reiterated that there will be no US “boots on the ground,” saying an Israeli military unit will be responsible for anchoring the pier to the shore.

A senior US administration official said that the US Agency for International Development “will partner with UN organizations to deliver the life-saving aid once it gets to Gaza through the maritime corridor.”

The official painted a dire picture of the situation in Gaza and the urgent need for aid, saying “the entire population of Gaza — 2.2 million people — is facing acute food insecurity.”

“More than half of the population in northern Gaza is facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity,” while “in southern Gaza, nearly a quarter of the population is facing this kind of catastrophic food insecurity,” the official said.


Hamas official says Israel ‘will not achieve’ goals in Rafah

Updated 25 April 2024
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Hamas official says Israel ‘will not achieve’ goals in Rafah

  • “Even if (Israel) enters and invades Rafah, it will not achieve what it wants,” Ghazi Hamad said
  • “This will undoubtedly threaten the negotiations because it is clear from this declared position that Israel is interested in continuing the war“

GAZA STRIP, Palestinian Territories: A senior Hamas official told AFP on Thursday that Israel would fail to meet its stated goals of defeating the Palestinian militant group and freeing hostages by invading the southern Gaza city Rafah.
“Even if (Israel) enters and invades Rafah, it will not achieve what it wants,” Ghazi Hamad said in an interview over the phone from Qatar, where a number of senior figures from Hamas’s political bureau are based.
Hamad said Israel had “spent nearly seven months in Gaza and invaded all areas and destroyed a lot, but so far has not been able to achieve anything of its main goals, whether eliminating Hamas or returning the captives.”
Israel has vowed to move on with the planned military operation in Rafah, despite international outcry and concern for about 1.5 million Palestinians sheltering in the city.
There are fears of huge civilian casualties and countries including Israel’s top ally and weapons supplier the United States have warned Israel against sending troops into Rafah.
“We have spoken with all parties involved in the conflict... about the seriousness of invading Rafah and that Israel is heading toward committing additional massacres and additional genocide,” Hamad said.
“This will undoubtedly threaten the negotiations because it is clear from this declared position that Israel is interested in continuing the war and aggression and has no intention of continuing negotiations and reaching an agreement,” he said.
Qatar, the United States and Egypt, have been mediating talks to secure a truce and the release of hostages, but those have stalled for days.
An Egyptian delegation is however set to travel to Israel on Friday to kickstart a new round of talks, Israeli media reported citing unnamed officials.
Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said Israel’s war cabinet was meeting Thursday “to discuss how to destroy the last battalions of Hamas.”
On Wednesday, Mencer said that since Israel began its ground invasion of Gaza on October 27, the army has destroyed “at least 18 or 19 of Hamas’s 24 battalions.”
Officials say the remaining battalions are in Rafah — the main target of the impending assault.
Most Gazans taking refuge in Rafah are sheltering in makeshift camps, and even before the start of the expected ground invasion, the city near the Egyptian border has been suffering regular Israeli bombings.
Hamad argued the planned invasion was exposing contradictions in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance on Gaza.
“Netanyahu is stumbling because, on the one hand, he wants to return the captives to their families, as he says, but at the same time, he puts them in great danger, as his army deliberately killed many hostages.”
Israel’s army has admitted to mistakenly killing some hostages in Gaza.
Hamad accused Netanyahu of “manipulating and procrastinating” in a bid to “deceive the Israeli public that there are negotiations and deceive the international community as well that there are negotiations.”
He said the Israeli prime minister was “trying to twist the truth” and claim that “Hamas is the obstacle in these negotiations.”
Hamad said Qatar and Egypt were “making great efforts to reach an agreement,” but argued “the Israeli side unfortunately deals with the matter foolishly and is very confused.”
Hamad also told AFP that Hamas, which took power in Gaza in 2007, was already working on plans for the territory after the war.
He said the group was “working on the post-war phase to ensure that there is a great effort to rebuild the Gaza Strip and provide the necessities for a decent life.”
Palestinian militants took around 250 hostages to Gaza during Hamas’s October 7 attack that triggered the war.
Israeli officials say 129 hostages are still held in Gaza, including 34 the military says are dead.
The attack on southern Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,170 people, Israelis and foreigners, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive against Hamas in Gaza has killed 34,305 people, most of them women and children, according to the territory’s health ministry.


Shawarma restaurant in Cairo brings taste of home for displaced Palestinians

Updated 25 April 2024
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Shawarma restaurant in Cairo brings taste of home for displaced Palestinians

CAIRO: A Palestinian businessman displaced by the war in Gaza is bringing a taste of home for fellow refugees with a shawarma restaurant he has opened in Cairo.

“The Restaurant of Rimal Neighborhood” offers shawarma, a Middle Eastern dish of thinly sliced meat, and other Palestinian and Arab dishes.

“The name comes to eternalize Rimal, my neighborhood, and my homeland too,” said Basem Abu Al-Awn.

“It is also to replace the restaurant I once had in Gaza. Two restaurants of mine, in addition to my house and the houses of my relatives, were destroyed,” he said.

Abu Al-Awn hopes his time outside Gaza will be temporary, and he is determined to return to the enclave once the war between Israel and Hamas is over.

“I will return, even if I have to set up a tent near the rubble of my house. We are going back to Gaza, and we will rebuild it,” he said.

Rimal was Gaza City’s busiest shopping center, with large malls and main bank offices before Israeli forces reduced most of it to rubble. 

It was also home to Gaza’s most famous shawarma places.

“The taste is the same. People tell us it tastes as if they are eating it in Gaza,” said Ahmed Awad, the new restaurant’s manager.

“The Egyptians who get to try our place keep coming back. They tell us the taste is nice and is different from the shawarma they usually get,” Awad said.

Gaza shawarma spices are unique and scarce in Cairo, so credit goes to Awad’s father, who mixes those available to give the dish a special Palestinian taste.

Many thousands of Palestinians have arrived in Gaza since the war began last October. 

Awad, his wife, and four children arrived in Cairo three months ago. 

In Gaza, he used to work in restaurants specializing in oriental and Western dishes.

With an end to the war looking like a distant prospect, Awad urged Palestinians not to give up.

“I advise them to work and take care of their lives. Their houses and everything may have gone, but no problem; it will come back again,” he said. 

“Once things are resolved, we will return home, work there, and rebuild our country.”

Palestinians now stranded in Cairo include businessmen, students, and ordinary families who say they seek temporary legal residency to pursue investment and study plans until a ceasefire is in place.

Om Moaz, from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, had been struggling to pay for a rented house and treatment for her husband and daughter in Cairo. She began working from home, offering Palestinian food through social media.

She found there was a strong demand from both Egyptians and Palestinians.

“Some were in the war and came to Egypt. So they started ordering my food. And thank God, it’s a successful business, and hopefully, it continues,” she said.


‘Let’s help Yemen regain ability to chart its own future,’ US envoy Tim Lenderking tells Arab News

Updated 25 April 2024
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‘Let’s help Yemen regain ability to chart its own future,’ US envoy Tim Lenderking tells Arab News

  • Lenderking says it would be a ‘terrible tragedy’ to squander progress in Yemen peace process amid ‘competing crises’
  • US envoy calls on Iran to stop fueling the conflict in Yemen and halt smuggling weapons to the Houthi militia

NEW YORK CITY: Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in response to Israel’s military offensive against Hamas in Gaza must not derail the peace process in Yemen, Tim Lenderking, the US special envoy for Yemen, has said.

Since the war in Gaza began in October last year, attacks by the Houthis on commercial and military vessels in the strategic waterways have caused significant disruption to global trade.

The Iran-backed armed political and religious group, formally known as Ansar Allah, views itself as a part of the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” against Israel, the US and the wider West.

It has threatened to continue its attacks on vessels until Israel ends its assault on Gaza. Since January, the UK and the US, in coalition with five other countries, have responded with retaliatory strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

The US will halt these retaliatory strikes when the Houthi militia stops its attacks on shipping, Lenderking told Arab News in an interview, placing responsibility for de-escalating the situation in the militia’s hands.

Yemenis hold a pro-Palestine march in the Houthi-run capital Sanaa. (AFP)

“The onus (is) on the Houthis to stop the Red Sea attacks,” he said. “That can prompt us all to begin to dial back, to de-escalate, to return the situation in Yemen to where it was on Oct. 6, which had considerably more promise and possibility than what exists now, and that’s where we want to return the focus.”

Lenderking called on Iran to “stop fueling the conflict (and) stop smuggling weapons and lethal material to Yemen, against UN Security Council resolutions.”

Yemen had never been so close to peace before the process was derailed by the latest regional turmoil, said Lenderking. The Yemeni civil war has gone on too long, he said: “It must stop.”

“The Yemeni people (have) suffered from this war for eight years now. They want their country back. They want their country (to be) peaceful. They don’t want foreign fighters in Yemen. They don’t want the Iranians in Sanaa. They don’t want the IRGC, the (Islamic) Revolutionary Guard (Corps) wandering around in Sanaa.

“Let’s help Yemen regain its country and its ability to chart its own future. That’s what the US so, so dearly wants.”

He added: “We’re trying very hard to marshal and maintain an international effort to keep the focus on Yemen’s peace process, on the very critical humanitarian situation.

“But look at what’s crowding us out: Terrible tragedy unfolding in Gaza. Russia’s war in Ukraine. Afghanistan. Sudan. There are many competing crises that are dominating the attention of the US and the international community.”

The cargo ship Rubymar partly submerged off the coast of Yemen after being hit by a Houthi missile. (AFP)

While the war in Yemen is linked to other conflicts raging in the region, the UN has recently said the world owes it to the Yemenis to ensure that resolving the war in Yemen is not made contingent upon the resolution of other issues, and that Yemen’s chance for peace does not become “collateral damage.”

“We cannot escape what’s happening in Gaza,” said Lenderking. “Not one single day goes by when the people I talk to about Yemen don’t also talk about Gaza. So we know this is a searing and very, very important situation that must be dealt with.

“This situation is holding up our ability to return the focus to the peace process in Yemen, to take advantage of a road map that was agreed to by the Yemeni government and by the Houthis in December, and get the Houthis to refocus their priorities not on Red Sea attacks — which are hurting Yemenis by the way, hurting Yemen — but to the peace effort in Yemen itself.”

Speaking during a UN Security Council briefing last week, Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy for Yemen, said the threat of further Houthi attacks on shipping persists in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza — the urgent need for which was underscored by the recent escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran.

Lenderking said: “We continue to hear from the Houthis that these (two) issues are linked and that (the Houthis) will not stop the attacks on Red Sea shipping until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza.

Lenderking called on Iran to “stop fueling the conflict (and) stop smuggling weapons and lethal material to Yemen, against UN Security Council resolutions.” (AFP)

“We believe there’s essential progress that could be done now. There are 25 members of the Galaxy Leader crew, the ship that was taken by the Houthis on Nov. 19 last year, still being held.

“They’re from five different countries. There is no reason why these individuals, who are innocent seafarers, are being detained in Hodeidah by the Houthis. Let them go. Release the ship. There are steps that could be taken. We could continue working on prisoner releases.

“These kinds of things will demonstrate to the Yemeni people that there’s still hope and that the international community is still focused on their situation.”

Lenderking said it would be a “terrible tragedy” to squander the progress toward peace that had been made in the previous two years.

A truce negotiated in April 2022 between the parties in Yemen had initially led to a reduction in violence and a slight easing in the dire humanitarian situation in the country. Two years on, the UN has lamented there is now little to celebrate.

Yemeni children gather to collect humanitarian aid on the outskirts of Marib. (AFP)

“Detainees we had hoped would be released in time to spend Eid with their loved ones remain in detention,” said UN envoy Grundberg. “Roads we had hoped to see open remain closed.

“We also witnessed the tragic killing and injury of 16 civilians, including women and children, when a residence was demolished by Ansar Allah (Houthi) individuals in Al-Bayda governorate.”

The humanitarian situation in Yemen has also become markedly worse in recent months amid rising food insecurity and the spread of cholera.

Edem Wosornu, director of operations and advocacy at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told the Security Council in the same briefing that the situation had deteriorated further after the World Food Programme suspended the distribution of food aid in areas controlled by the Houthis in December 2023.

This pause followed disagreements with local authorities over who should receive priority assistance and was compounded by the effects of a severe funding crisis on WFP humanitarian efforts in Yemen.

“The most vulnerable people — including women and girls, marginalized groups such as the Muhamasheen, internally displaced people, migrants, asylum seekers and refugees, and persons with disabilities — still depend on humanitarian assistance to survive,” said Wosornu.

Wosornu also voiced concern about an increase in cases of cholera in Yemen amid the deterioration of public services and institutions.

“The re-emergence of cholera, and growing levels of severe malnutrition, are telling indicators of the weakened capacity of social services,” she said.

“Almost one in every two children under five are stunted, more than double the global average: 49 percent compared to 21.3 percent.

“Emergency stocks of essential supplies are almost depleted. And water, sanitation and hygiene support systems need urgent strengthening.”

The humanitarian response plan for Yemen is only 10 percent funded, with funding for its food security and nutrition programs standing at just 5 percent and 3 percent respectively, according to an informal update presented to the Security Council by the OCHA this week.

Supporters of Yemen’s Huthi militia attend a gathering to mark annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day commemorations in Sanaa. (AFP)

Wosornu appealed to the international community to take urgent action to help fill the funding gaps.

Commenting on the funding shortage, Lenderking said: “When there’s a genuine possibility of a Yemen peace process, donors will take note of that and respond. But the fact that we’re in this limbo, where the peace process is on hold while the Houthi is continuing these attacks (in the Red Sea), that I think is to be blamed on the Houthis because they’re derailing what was a legitimate peace process.

“But once we can get back to that, I think we could call on the international community to say, look, there is a ray of hope. There is a process. There is a commitment. The US is supporting an international effort. We can get the donors to come back to Yemen, despite all of the competition for these very scarce resources.”


British Royal Navy shoots down missile for first time since Gulf War in 1991 amid Houthi attacks on shipping

Updated 25 April 2024
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British Royal Navy shoots down missile for first time since Gulf War in 1991 amid Houthi attacks on shipping

  • Iran-backed group said its missiles targeted US ship Maersk Yorktown, an American destroyer in the Gulf of Aden and Israeli ship MSC Veracruz

LONDON: A British Royal Navy destroyer shot down a ballistic missile on Wednesday for the first time since the first Gulf War in 1991, the UK’s defense secretary told The Times newspaper.

In a report published Thursday, Grant Shapps told the newspaper that HMS Diamond used its “Sea Viper” missile system to target the weapon, which Yemen’s Houthi militia said they used to target two American ships in the Gulf of Aden and an Israeli vessel in the Indian Ocean.

The Iran-backed group said its missiles targeted US ship Maersk Yorktown, an American destroyer in the Gulf of Aden and Israeli ship MSC Veracruz in the Indian Ocean, its military spokesman Yahya Sarea confirmed.

It is the first such attack from the Yemeni militia in two weeks in the region, where Royal Navy Type 45 destroyers have been deployed to protect commercial ships since the Houthis initiated strikes on global shipping in November last year in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

“The Yemeni armed forces confirm they will continue to prevent Israeli navigation or any navigation heading to the ports of occupied Palestine in the Red and Arabian Seas, as well as in the Indian Ocean,” Sarea said on Wednesday.

Shapps said the latest Houthi attack was an example of how dangerous the world was becoming and how “non-state actors were now being supplied with very sophisticated weapons” from states such as Iran.

His comments came after UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak this week pledged to increase spending on British defense to 2.5 percent of national income, something Shapps said was “so vital” given continued tensions in the Middle East.