BRUSSELS: The EU warned Thursday that a rise in trade protectionism exemplified by the Trump administration’s tariffs was the biggest threat to eurozone growth despite solid economic forecasts for the next two years.
Brussels unveiled the optimistic forecasts for 2018 and 2019 a day after official data showed growth slowed in the eurozone, fueling fears that the recovery in Europe was losing steam after a strong 2017.
Sparking particular worry about the economy is an ongoing trade dispute with US President Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose major metals tariffs and provoke a trade war.
“The biggest risk to this rosy outlook is protectionism, which must not become the new normal: that would only hurt those of our citizens we most need to protect,” said EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici.
The commission, the EU’s executive arm, said the 19-country single currency bloc would expand by a robust 2.3 percent in 2018, and by 2.0 percent in 2019, the same forecast as in February.
But the commission warned that policies taken by Trump, including a massive tax cut, had created a real threat to Europe’s economy.
The tax cuts “and inward-looking trade policies present a dangerous nexus,” to commission wrote in its forecast.
The Europeans and other allies have so far won a US exemption on the metals tariffs to June 1, but have prepared a long list of countermeasures in case Trump delivers on his threat.
“An escalation of trade protectionism presents an unambiguously negative risk to the global economic outlook,” the commission said.
The commission also had a warning for Britain ahead of Brexit, predicting that the UK economy would grow by a sluggish 1.5 percent in 2018, well below the EU pace of 2.3 percent.
Britain’s growth would slow even further to 1.2 percent in 2019, the year it is officially to divorce from the bloc.
“Within Europe, risks related to the outcome of the Brexit negotiations remain,” the EU added.
In its forecast, the commission delivered welcome news to pro-reform French President Emmanuel Macron, with France officially in position to emerge from the deficit procedure after nearly a decade.
The EU said that after 2.6 percent in 2017, the French deficit will reach and an even lower 2.3 percent in 2018.
France is indeed one of the last two countries in the eurozone, along with Spain, still concerned by the excessive deficit procedure, which can lead to sanctions and fines, even if this has never happened.
During the worst of the eurozone crisis in 2011, 24 EU countries were simultaneously under the procedure, which when the public deficit exceeds three percent of GDP.
Powerhouse Germany once again blew through targets on public spending, though remained open to criticism that it overly privileges austerity which punishes the wider European economy.
The German public budget is forecast to run a stunning surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018.
The EU also said Thursday that inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.2 percent in April, a dip from 1.3 percent in March.
That edges inflation further away from the European Central Bank’s target of near 2.0 percent.
EU calls US trade threats ‘dangerous’ for growth
EU calls US trade threats ‘dangerous’ for growth
- Sparking particular worry about the economy is an ongoing trade dispute with US President Donald Trump
- The Europeans and other allies have so far won a US exemption on the metals tariffs to June 1
World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn
- Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
- Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience
DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.
Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.
“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.
Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.
“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.
His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.
“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.
Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.
Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.
Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”
President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”
Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.
Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.
She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.
Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.
Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.
Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.
Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”
In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.
“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.
American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”
Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.
“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.
Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.
Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.
“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.
Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier.
“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.
Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.
“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.
The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.
“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.
“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.
Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.
“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.
WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.
