LONDON: Iranian opposition groups in the West have been vocal in their calls for the overthrow of the regime during the recent widespread protests across Iran.
Daily demonstrations have been held outside the Iranian Embassy in London while supporters at a rally on Thursday organized by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and its affiliate The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) echoed protesters’ chants of “down with Khamenei, down with dictators” opposite the UK prime minister’s residence.
Headquartered in France, the PMOI, which is also known as the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), claims to be the Iranian government in exile. Founded in 1965 in opposition to the shah, it has a chequered past in the UK, Europe and the US, where it was designated a terrorist organization until being delisted in 2008, 2009 and 2012 respectively.
Laila Jazayeri, director of the Association of Anglo-Iranian Women in the UK, which is under the NCRI/PMOI umbrella, said: “The fact that the PMOI was named among designated (terror) groups was the work of the Iranian regime. It was part and parcel of a political deal, part of an appeasement policy.
“It is time for change and it is time for all Western leaders to wake up to the reality and stop tying their fate to a regime that has no future.”
Before the Iranian revolution in 1979, the group conducted bombing campaigns against the shah’s regime, and then against the theocratic government during the 1980s and 1990s. They also attacked American targets and supported the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran shortly after the revolution.
Its stance changed after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, with the group claiming to have renounced violence and lobbying for support against the Iranian government among Western parliamentarians and building relationships with politicians in the Europe and the US.
Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American political scientist and president of the International American Council, described the “paranoia with which the Iranian regime officials constantly speak about the group at home, including the most recent appeal to the French president by Hassan Rouhani, in which he blamed the MEK for its role in the unrest that has engulfed Iran over the past eight years.
“The Iranian regime has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to demonize the PMOI and portrayed it as a group without popular support,” Rafizadeh, an Arab News columnist, added.
Some experts in the UK and US questioned the PMOI’s relevance after decades in exile.
“They have a support base in London, Paris, Washington, but to really become viable as a national alternative to the Islamic Republic they would need to do a lot more to attract people to their cause,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and the Jamestown Foundation in Washington.
“They have their hardened core supporters, but that is not going to cut it as far as becoming a really viable alternative.
“History tells us that the Iranian opposition are immensely fragmented — they have a proven record of not getting along. That just helps the Islamic Republic,” he added.
Speaking to Arab News at a rally in London, Azadeh Hosseini, a member of the Anglo-Iranian Teachers Association, said: “We’re here to be the voice of the Iranian people and express our support for the National Council of Resistance of Iran and the PMOI, who have been striving for peace and democracy in Iran since the Iranian regime came into power.”
“Unfortunately Western governments have been very late in condemning the actions of this regime,” she said.
Protesters at the rally in London represented “Iranian people from all walks of life inside Iran,” Jazayeri said, adding: “The PMOI has been after regime change for the last four decades.”
The PMOI’s former association with Saddam Hussein during the 1980s, when the group conducted raids into Iran during the latter stages of the Iran-Iraq war, alienated many Iranians, some of whom see them as “betrayers of the nation” according to Clement Therme, researcher fellow for Iran at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But Rafizadeh said they remain “the largest and most organized opposition group outside and inside Iran.”
“Regardless of what one might think of the group, the MEK is a major player in Iran. It cannot be dismissed. Not only have they roots within Iranian population, but they also have the organizational power, which makes them a leading player in any change in Iran.”
Iranian opposition abroad finds new voice amid protests
Iranian opposition abroad finds new voice amid protests
What Bangladesh’s election means for India, China and Pakistan ties
- Bangladeshis will vote on Feb. 12, almost two years after the 2024 student-led uprising
- After nearly 2 years of tensions, experts expect a thaw with India under elected government
DHAKA: As Bangladesh prepares to hold its first elections since the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina, its longest-serving prime minister, the outcome will define Dhaka’s relations with the most important regional powers — China, India, and Pakistan.
Nearly 128 million Bangladeshis will head to the polls on Feb. 12 to bring in new leadership after an 18-month rule of the current caretaker administration.
The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, took control following a student-led uprising that ended 15 years in power of Hasina and her Awami League party.
The two main parties out of the 51 competing for power are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami. The Awami League, which for decades has had close ties with India, was excluded from the election ballot over its role in the deadly crackdown on the 2024 student-led protests, in which 1,400 people were killed.
While Bangladesh’s relationship India has deteriorated since the fall of Hasina, who has been in self-exile in New Delhi, the period of diplomatic strain is expected to ease when the new government takes office.
“Whoever comes to power in Bangladesh, due to domestic pressure in the country, relationships with India need a resetting,” Humayun Kabir, former ambassador to the US, told Arab News.
“It’s anticipated that India will also engage with the new government, but they will protect their interests, and we also have to do the same. It’s most likely that the India-Bangladesh relationship will be normalized under the new, elected, government.”
Since 2024, India has suspended key transshipment access that allowed Bangladeshi exports to go via Indian ports and airports. It also put on hold most normal visa services for Bangladeshis, who were among its largest groups of medical tourists.
From Hasina’s heavy pro-India orientation, the interim government has tried to rebalance Bangladesh’s foreign policy toward the two other key regional players — China and Pakistan — who at the same time are India’s main rivals.
If New Delhi regains its importance, it should not deal a blow to the newly expanded relations with Pakistan, with whom Bangladesh has recently increased exchanges, especially economic, and last month resumed direct flights — after a 14-year gap.
Since the relations have been expanded under the caretaker government, Prof. Delwar Hossain from the International Relations Department at Dhaka University forecast that they would only further improve, no matter who comes to power, and there is no likelihood of a sudden change.
“For Pakistan, any political coalition — whether BNP or Jamaat — will be positive. The BNP has a long history of having good relations with Pakistan during their rule ... Jamaat also has a strong and very positive influence in Pakistan,” he said.
“For Pakistan, the new regime or new government is not the issue. The issue is what the (India) policy of the new government would be and to what extent it would actually support Pakistan’s view.”
Both the BNP and Jamaat have repeatedly said they wanted friendly relations with India, and Hossain expected that they would, at the same time, continue the balanced approach introduced by the caretaker administration.
“India is a reality as a neighbor. At the same time, India is also showing interest in mending relations or adopting a more cooperative approach after the vote, with the government that will be elected ... I think there will be pragmatism from both sides,” he said.
“I don’t see there is a long-term threat to Bangladesh-India relations ... When China and Pakistan were trying to create a trilateral cooperative system or some kind of coalition — China, Bangladesh and Pakistan — we have seen that Bangladesh opted out. It seems that Bangladesh is going to continue its policy of maintaining a balance among these great powers.”
Bangladesh’s relations with China have not changed since the ouster of Hasina, whose government signed several economic agreements with Beijing. Yunus’s administration has continued this cooperation, and China was among the very few countries he officially visited during his term.
During the visit, he secured about $2.1 billion in Chinese investments, loans and grants, including funding for infrastructure like Mongla Port and a special economic zone in Chattogram — Bangladesh’s largest port. China has also eased visa rules for Bangladeshi businesspeople, medical travelers and tourists.
According to Munshi Faiz Ahmed, Bangladesh’s former ambassador to Beijing, China’s importance for Bangladesh cannot be substituted by any other country, especially as over the past few years it has emerged not only as its key investor, but also the largest trade partner.
In the fiscal year 2024-25, Bangladesh’s trade with China was over $21.3 billion, according to National Board of Revenue data. With India, it was about $11.5 billion.
The trade — especially import — dependence on Beijing started long before the regime change. In terms of trade volume, China overtook India already in 2018.
“Even when people thought that we had very close relations with India, our relations with China continued to grow in terms of trade and commerce ... Our trade with China has surpassed India’s, and China is a much bigger investor in Bangladesh’s development projects,” Ahmed said.
“Bangladesh will continue to cooperate with China for a long time to come because what China can provide, no other country can.”
