Gold bubble ‘unlikely at current prices’

Updated 31 October 2012
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Gold bubble ‘unlikely at current prices’

JEDDAH: Gold is not in a “bubble” at current prices, says a leading analyst.
The precious metal is up 9.7 percent this year. Gold closed on Friday at $1,716/oz on the London Bullion Market, flat over the previous day’s $ 1,715.50/oz.
Commodity prices ended broadly lower on Friday as weakness in corporate earnings reports dimmed the outlook for the US economy.
Deutsche Bank AG favors precious metals and is neutral on oil and industrial metals, Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at the bank, was quoted as saying by the Bloomberg news agency at the World Commodities Week conference in London.
Gold may outperform other commodities as the bull run in raw materials pauses amid slowing economies, while grains and oilseeds may jump on weather disruptions, said participants at the conference.
Gold won’t become a bubble unless prices rise to a record above $ 2,200 an ounce, while oil and industrial metals are vulnerable to risks associated with the so-called fiscal cliff in the US, said Lewis of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank.
He was referring to $ 607 billion in federal spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January unless the US Congress intervenes.
Central banks have been expanding gold reserves after the metal climbed the past 11 years and investors boosted holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products to a record.
Nations bought 254.2 tons in the first half of 2012 and may add close to 500 tons for the year as a whole, the London-based World Gold Council said in August.
Commodities will likely lack direction for the next 12 months, meaning investors will focus more on relative-value trades, the Tiberius Asset Management says in the news report.
Spot gold prices eked out small gains on Friday after data showed US economic growth picked up in the third quarter.
Bullion reversed early losses as the week closed after the US Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at a better-than-expected 2 percent annual rate, driven by a late burst of consumer spending.
Analysts told Reuters, however, that uncertainty over global economic recovery and questions on the future of US monetary policy that has been ultra-loose under US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke could dent gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
“I don’t believe gold is able to rally off of that (GDP) data for now. Gold is a momentum asset and its momentum is not there right now,” Jeffrey Sica, chief investment officer at SICA Wealth, which manages more than $1 billion in assets, told Reuters.
The news agency reported on Friday that spot bullion was set for a weekly drop of 0.5 percent, which would mark its first three-week consecutive loss in more than a year. Gold posted a four-week decline after a rally to a record above $1,920 an ounce in September 2011.
US COMEX gold futures for December delivery settled 0.06 percent lower at $ 1,711.9 an ounce, with trading volume on track to finish below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.
Traders said the 0.7 percent decline in the December price this week stemmed partly from concerns over a report that Bernanke has told close friends that he probably will not stand for a third term at the central bank even if President Barack Obama wins the Nov. 6 election.
“Without Bernanke, monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve could be greatly reduced, and that will weigh on the price of gold,” Sica said.
Gold’s outlook hinges on uncertainty related to the US election and the so-called “fiscal cliff,” a series of automatic spending cuts and tax increases in 2012 if Congress fails to reach a deficit-reduction deal by the end of the year.
On charts, gold has come under technical pressure after it several times ran near formidable resistance at $ 1,800, which it has not broken since November 2011, and failed each time, said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.
Silver was down 0.09 percent at $32.04 an ounce.
Bullion rallied to an 11-month peak above $1,795 an ounce in early October after the Fed’s latest program of purchasing mortgage-backed debt stirred inflation worries.
Momentum has since stalled, with weak global economic data helping send prices below $ 1,700 last week, when US durable goods data showed the first cutbacks in investment in more than a year by cautious businesses.
Year-to-date, gold is up nearly 10 percent, on track to gain for a 12th consecutive year. Bullion’s gains in the last several years have largely been powered by economic uncertainty related to the Fed’s bond-buying to stimulate growth.
Reuters also reported on Friday that platinum group metals are on track to fall more than 3 percent this week as economic worries and easing supply fears from top producer South Africa triggered heavy selling.
Platinum dropped 1.38 percent to $1,546.25 an ounce and palladium fell 1.28 percent to $ 594.0 an ounce.


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.