ISLAMABAD: In its latest report on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies in South Asia, the World Bank has projected 0.5 percent growth for Pakistan in fiscal year 2021, saying the country would experience a sharp rise in poverty like other nations in the region. 

The South Asian country has recorded more than 310,00 cases of COVID-19 and over 6,500 deaths, but has seen a slowing of numbers since June, when it recorded nearly 7,000 infections and 118 deaths in a single day.

“In Pakistan, real GDP growth (at factor cost) is estimated to have declined from 1.9 percent in FY18/19 to -1.5 percent in FY19/20, reflecting the effects of COVID-19 containment measures that followed monetary and fiscal tightening prior to the outbreak,” the World Bank’s “South Asia Economic Focus – Fall 2020” report said. “In Pakistan, economic growth is projected to remain below potential, at 0.5pc [percent] for FY21 compared to over 4pc annual average in the three years to FY2019.”

The report said the COVID-19 pandemic was not yet under control in South Asia, despite early containment measures.

“In April, activity dropped by 40 percent in Pakistan and by around two thirds in the other countries,” the report said. “Activity recovered subsequently across the region, but it remained below pre-COVID levels in August. High-frequency approximations of GDP suggest year-over-year contractions during the second quarter of this year in all countries and a subsequent gradual recovery.”

The report said in summary that South Asia’s GDP was expected to contract 7.7 percent this year, by far the largest decline on record: “All countries in the region find themselves in a dire situation.”

The impact on livelihoods would even be larger than the GDP forecast suggests and the region, including Pakistan, would experience a sharp increase in the poverty rate, the report said.