LONDON: Britain's budget deficit widened to the biggest on record for any August, data showed yesterday, a day after the central bank chief said missing its debt goal was acceptable for the government.
Public sector net borrowing excluding financial sector interventions rose to 14.410 billion pounds from 14.365 billion in August 2011 as Britain's recession hit company tax receipts and drove up benefit payments.
That was the highest for any August since records began in January 1993, although slightly below economists' forecast in a Reuters poll for 15.0 billion pounds.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who has made reducing the deficit a central plank of his policies, may soon face a tough choice between cutting spending further or abandoning his goal of ensuring that the debt-to-GDP ratio starts falling by 2015. The lack of growth and the rising debt pile have increased the tension within the coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, with some Conservatives urging more cuts to welfare. The Labour opposition, meanwhile, is calling for a loosening of the austerity plan of tax hikes and spending cuts, aimed at erasing the structural budget deficit within five years and reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Late on Thursday, Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King — a firm supporter of the government's efforts to cut the budget gap — said missing the 2015 debt goal would be acceptable if the reason was weakness in the economy. "We heard from Mervyn King last night they are going to bust the debt target," BNP economist David Tinsley said. "But that was always a stupid target anyway. I know it's difficult politically to break that but it is sensible economics. I think it's unavoidable."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted back in July that Britain's debt-to-GDP ratio will not fall by 2015. Nevertheless, the fund suggested the government ease back on austerity if the economy failed to recover by early 2013.
The fallout from the financial crisis left Britain with one of the biggest budget deficits of all major economies and its public sector net debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed to around 66 percent in August from some 36 percent before the crisis.
But the country has so far kept its top credit rating as the ratio is still lower than in countries like the United States. And Britain's borrowing costs are still near record-lows, indicating the market's trust in the government's commitment to its fiscal plans.
In March, the budget watchdog — the Office for Budget Responsibility — predicted a fall in the deficit to 5.8 percent of GDP in the 2012/13 fiscal year from around 8 percent in 2011/2012, but economists say that borrowing now looks set to overshoot forecasts by up to 30 billion.
Commenting on the August data, the OBR said the government's expenditure ran close to forecasts but tax receipts were lower. "There continues to be significant uncertainty around the prospects for full-year borrowing," it said. Borrowing in the fiscal year to date fell to 31.003 billion pounds from 48.446 billion in the April-August period 2011.
However, stripping out a one-off transfer of Royal Mail pension assets, the gap stood at 59.0 billion pounds, up 21.8 percent compared with April-August 2011 — far above the OBR's forecast for the full year of an increase by just 0.5 percent.
In his annual Autumn Statement on Dec. 5, Osborne is likely to face yet another downgrade in the OBR's economic growth forecast, as well as a gloomy outlook for the budget deficit.
"If the chancellor follows the (BoE) governor's lead — and we expect he will — then he will stick with the current fiscal plans ... but will not introduce extra fiscal tightening to correct the adverse effects on revenues of economic weakness," Citi economist Michael Saunders said.
But Osborne faces a rough ride.
His austerity drive has made him one of Britain's most unpopular politicians as the country is struggling to move out of recession and a meaningful recovery looks elusive despite the central bank's 375 billion pounds of stimulus bond purchases.
BoE policymaker Spencer Dale yesterday called the economic backdrop still "pretty challenging", but also noted encouraging signs that access to bank loans was becoming easier for firms due to the BoE's Funding for Lending Scheme.
The government had originally planned to eliminate the structural budget deficit by 2015 but a weak economy has forced it to extend austerity by another two years and Prime Minister David Cameron has warned it could even last until 2020.
Yesterday's data showed that government receipts rose 1.8 percent on the year in August, while current spending grew 2.5 percent. Within that, corporation tax inflows fell 2.1 percent on the year, while social benefit payments rose 4.9 percent.
Rising deficit puts Britain at risk of debt goal miss
Rising deficit puts Britain at risk of debt goal miss
Saudi Arabia’s oil sector skills to help Kingdom evolve as a green hydrogen hub, experts say
- Saudi Arabia, having set its net-zero target for 2060, has been heavily investing in the renewable energy sector
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s long-proven expertise in the oil industry could help the Kingdom emerge as a global leader in green hydrogen production as the world marches toward a sustainable future, experts told Arab News.
Saudi Arabia, having set its net-zero target for 2060, has been heavily investing in the renewable energy sector, and with the world’s largest green hydrogen plant, located in Neom, set to become fully operational in 2027.
The plant will rely entirely on solar and wind energy to power a 2.2 gigawatt electrolyzer, designed to produce hydrogen continuously.
Speaking to Arab News, Paul Sullivan, an energy and environment expert at Johns Hopkins University, said that Saudi Arabia could use its vast experience in project management and execution in the traditional energy sector to become a leader in green hydrogen production.
“Many skills could be transferred from traditional fuels, such as oil and gas, to green hydrogen. Experience and skills in project development could be transferred,” said Sullivan.
He added: “The knowledge gained from developing traditional energy projects at Saudi Aramco and its contractors puts Saudi Arabia at an advantage as it advances its hydrogen projects. AI expertise can be used across energy types and uses. AI could help optimize current and future energy systems, regardless of their nature.”
Samuele Bellani, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group, shared similar views, and said that Saudi Arabia has access to advantageous solar and wind renewable energy, which could help the Kingdom emerge as a global powerhouse in green hydrogen production.
“This strong competitive advantage, together with Saudi Arabia’s commercial and marketing capabilities, and decades of experience in large-scale gas processing, refining, and project execution can position the country as a key producer and exporter of low carbon hydrogen in the future,” said Bellani.
The BCG official added that the Kingdom’s expertise in managing complex, capital-intensive projects at scale in the traditional fuel sector provides an invaluable foundation for hydrogen development, where similar skills in engineering, logistics, and international energy trading are essential.
Green hydrogen, created through electrolysis powered by renewable energy, is seen as a critical component in reducing global carbon emissions, because it produces no greenhouse gases in the production process.
In December, speaking to Al-Eqtisadiah on the sidelines of the Absher Conference, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Climate Envoy Adel Al-Jubeir said that the Kingdom is making steady progress in advancing the circular carbon economy and green hydrogen production as part of broader efforts to address climate challenges through technology and investment.
The minister added that the Kingdom has made tangible progress in deploying new technologies that support more efficient energy use while expanding the production of alternative and renewable energy sources.
Upgrading existing systems
Sullivan said that infrastructure used in the traditional energy sector, such as pipelines, can be repurposed for the renewable industry, with some required changes to ensure safety and affordability.
“A wide range of legal, administrative, managerial, engineering, supply chain, policy development, governance, finance, safety and risk management, and economic skills could be transferred. Plumbers, electricians, pipefitters, welders, and other skilled craftspeople can be repurposed and used directly,” said Sullivan.
He added: “Furthermore, the oil and gas industries already produce hydrogen for their own needs. They have experience in developing ports, pipelines, and other logistical systems, as well as international trading and supply chain networks. That experience will not go to waste.”
Bellani said that Saudi Arabia can adapt existing gas, power, and industrial infrastructure to support blue hydrogen with carbon capture and storage, and green hydrogen powered by renewables.
The BCG official added that export infrastructure — including ports, storage tanks, and shipping — could be upgraded to handle hydrogen carriers such as ammonia.
Carbon capture and storage is central to Saudi Arabia’s blue hydrogen strategy.
Samuele Bellani, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group
Industrial zones and pipelines can be repurposed or expanded to integrate hydrogen production, conversion, and export at scale provided materialization of demand and ability to secure long term offtake agreements.
“This adaptive approach maximizes the value of existing investments while minimizing development timelines. The Kingdom’s world-class port facilities and industrial complexes provide a strong foundation that can be enhanced rather than rebuilt, offering significant cost and time advantages over competitors starting from scratch,” he added.
According to Bellani, carbon capture and storage is central to Saudi Arabia’s blue hydrogen strategy, enabling production from natural gas while significantly reducing lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions.
“The Kingdom’s large geological storage potential and experience with CO2 injection support the development of high-capture-rate projects at scale. This technology serves as a crucial bridge, allowing Saudi Arabia to leverage its existing natural gas resources while building toward a fully renewable hydrogen economy,” said Bellani.
He added: “The Kingdom’s geological advantages — including extensive underground formations suitable for CO2 storage — provide a natural competitive edge in blue hydrogen production that few other nations can match.”
The strategic Vision 2030 agenda
According to Sullivan, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic diversification program, as well as the initiatives taken by the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, is playing a crucial role in materializing the nation’s hydrogen goal.
Sullivan said that Vision 2030 is the umbrella for strategic policies, including building new supply chains and new visions toward trade and commerce, as well as economic, financial, and employment diversification.
The Public Investment Fund is funding such activities, including the giant Neom and Yanbu green hydrogen projects, as well as the development of green hydrogen hubs.
“PIF green bonds help reduce costs and make financing green hydrogen projects cheaper than they would otherwise be. The Saudi Green Initiative provides direction and policy developments on climate and environmental policies that could help advance green hydrogen in tandem with Vision 2030 and the PIF’s work,” said Sullivan.
He added: “Without a proper strategic confluence of all three, many of today’s and future green hydrogen projects could face a more difficult future.”
Bellani shared a similar opinion and said that the Vision 2030 program’s strategic framework ensures that hydrogen development receives the highest levels of government support and investment priority.
The BCG official added that Saudi Arabia can reduce its dependence on oil revenues while developing new industrial capabilities and contributing to global decarbonization efforts by building a valuable hydrogen economy.
“Vision 2030 promotes economic diversification, industrial localization, and energy transition. All these three objectives align with low carbon hydrogen value proposition,” said Bellani.
Target countries
According to Sullivan, Europe will be one of the priority markets for Saudi Arabia as it ramps up green hydrogen production.
“Saudi Arabia’s green hydrogen has better economics than many other countries’, given the costs of electricity production and offtake contracts under concessional regimes, as well as its natural endowments for green energy,” said Sullivan.
He added: “Even with shipping costs included, Saudi green hydrogen could be competitive in Europe in many circumstances.”
Bellani echoed similar sentiments and said that the demand for Saudi Arabia’s green hydrogen will be driven by demand for both blue and green hydrogen to meet decarbonization targets and energy security needs.
East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are also key markets due to their limited domestic energy resources and strong interest in hydrogen and ammonia imports.
The BCG official further said that additional demand may emerge from other Asian and emerging economies seeking affordable, low-carbon fuels in the future.
Potential challenges and combat measures
Speaking to Arab News, Safak Yucel, associate director of business of sustainability initiative at McDonough School of Business Georgetown University Dubai, said finding buyers could be one of the obstacles Saudi Arabia faces in its hydrogen journey.
“The biggest challenge is driving the cost down sufficiently so that there would be a meaningful scale of buyers. This would require significant investments not only in the infrastructure but also research and development,” said Yucel.
Bellani said that the challenges Saudi Arabia could face include ensuring global demand certainty, securing long-term offtake contracts, and remaining cost-competitive as international hydrogen markets evolve.
The BCG official added that scaling CCS for blue hydrogen and renewable capacity, water supply, and electrolysis for green hydrogen requires significant coordination and capital.
Regulatory alignment, certification complexity, and infrastructure build-out timelines also pose execution risks.
“These challenges highlight the complexity of transforming an entire energy system while building new international markets simultaneously. However, Saudi Arabia’s experience managing large-scale energy projects and its substantial financial resources position the Kingdom well to address these implementation hurdles systematically,” added Bellani.
Yucel said that Saudi Arabia could explore international collaboration, to evolve as a market leader in the hydrogen energy ecosystem.
“Many companies are interested in investing in green hydrogen and several research groups across the globe are working on further advancing the technology. Such collaborative efforts would be vital in driving costs down,” said Yucel.
Bellani elaborated and said that there are strong opportunities for collaboration across the value chain, including joint ventures for blue and green hydrogen projects, offtake agreements, and infrastructure development.
According to him, international energy companies, technology providers, and engineering firms can contribute expertise in CCS, electrolysis, ammonia, and logistics, while partnerships with research institutions can accelerate innovation in hydrogen technologies, cost reduction, and sustainability standards.
“Saudi Arabia’s transition from oil giant to hydrogen superpower represents one of the most significant energy sector transformations of our time. By systematically addressing each aspect of hydrogen economy development — from leveraging existing expertise to building new international partnerships— the Kingdom is positioning itself at the forefront of the global energy transition,” said Bellani.
