The possibility of a dangerous conflict between the federal government and provinces over the Kalabagh Dam is very high. President Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s lobbying efforts in Sindh have been met with counter moves by a united opposition.

They are holding rallies, raising their objections to the dam and to the Musharraf government. Protests in NWFP have also been organized.

Many Sindhi and Pakhtun parties, irrespective of their political affiliations, are against the Kalabagh Dam. They are joining hands to organize protests against its construction. Small anti-dam and anti-Thal canal rallies are being organized across Sindh.

In an unprecedented gesture the entire editorial team of a leading Sindhi daily, Khabroon, resigned in protest over the owner’s pro-dam position.

The newspaper’s offices were also ransacked after an advertisement appeared in the paper from the Federal Information Ministry that favored the project.

The Awami National Party even met the US consul general in Peshawar to complain against the center’s decision to construct the dam. Sindhi parties have threatened to launch a larger protest against the Kalabagh Dam.

In a parliamentary democracy, the Parliament is the proper forum to discuss vital issues of national importance. While debate in the Senate has begun, there are no indications that a productive and useful discussion will take place. From the posturing of Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afgan it seems we are in for a rowdy debate on this issue.

Regarding the PPP’s stand on the issue, the recent verbal duel in the Senate between a PPP senator and Afgan indicates the party does not approve of the dam.

The PPP senator said Benazir did not support the project while Afgan said she supported it with a changed name.

The PPP senator branded Afgan a liar and Afgan retorted by saying the senator was a bigger liar. The opposition walked out because of the minister’s rudeness. The Leader of the House Wasim Sajjad apologized and got them back.

Supporters want the matter taken up by the Supreme Court. A petition has been filed by an individual in the Supreme Court asking the top court to issue guidelines to all the parties for an amicable solution to the dispute.

Tehrik-e-Istiqlal President Rehmat Khan Wardag even suggested that President Musharraf should dissolve the national and provincial assemblies if they oppose what is in the national interest. Many parties are opposing it. The dam is a life-and-death issue for us. The issue has in fact pitted the three smaller provinces against the center and the Punjab. It’s heading toward a standoff.

Gen. Musharraf’s tour of Sindh is unlikely to change the stand of the opponents who are backed by a large number of their supporters.

The situation is not likely to change unless the opponents of the dam who wield influence in Sindh and NWFP agree with the center on the issue.

In the current scenario, the electronic media has an important role to play. Despite its shortcomings, the electronic media enjoys a degree of credibility among the people and politicians. It has a track record of shedding light on all sides of any issue.

Pakistan’s television channels have spearheaded debates on crucial national issues, including social reform, political co-existence, the 1971 breakup and the role of the army.

The electronic media should play the same role in the current crisis. The primary objective would be to discuss all aspects of the issue and allay the fears that haunt the people of Sindh and NWFP. Also discuss the impending water crisis and ways to overcome it.

All the major national channels, including Geo, ARY, Aaj, and even PTV, should jointly organize a series of discussions on the issue. Regional language television networks should also join this program.

The questions that need to be addressed could be many but the objective should be to allay the fears of Sindh and NWFP.

The questions could be: Will Sindh’s share of irrigation water increase? What guarantees will there be that the center and the provinces will all honor the agreed water accord? What should be fair water distribution under the NFC award?

Will the people of NWFP lose fertile land in Nowshera, Peshawer and Mardan? Will the dam create the problem of salinity? How much royalty will Punjab get from Kalabagh Dam?

The programs should be based on sound research so that the answers to such questions could be found.

Under the current situation, a dialogue between the proponents of the dam led by Musharraf vis-à-vis the opponents, is difficult. Only a third party’s intervention can help facilitate a resolution.

The crisis raises a vital question as to who is the competent authority to deal with a crisis of such a magnitude. The answer unfortunately is, none.

Political systems that enjoy credibility should function within constitutional and legal frameworks.

It is this combination of the legal and constitutional framework and the operative dynamic of accountability that provides the political system the ultimate privilege that it needs to play its primary role of managing national affairs, which includes resolving conflicts among contending interest groups. This is the privilege of legitimacy. Without legitimacy no system can enjoy the moral authority it requires to play the role of an arbitrator.

The extent of moral authority that a system enjoys is directly related to how it functions within its legal and constitutional framework.

So when the Indian Supreme Court ruled the incumbent Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s emergency of 1974 illegal, it reinforced the moral authority of India’s system. In the US, the democratic system with all its problems serves its people well. It enjoys the moral authority to arbitrate. It was most recently illustrated through the way the New York transit workers strike ended. While the system takes care of the workers it also protects the rights of the public and of the State.

It’s the moral authority, the legitimacy and at the core of it all, the adherence to a consensual constitutional and legal framework, that enables a system to mediate to resolve conflicts.

In Pakistan, that moral authority, legitimacy and the dynamic of accountability are unfortunately missing. This is what the Kalabagh Dam crisis so clearly establishes.

But to find a solution to the imbroglio, we should make a beginning and the electronic media should be the first to play its role.